Analyzing the convergence of transport network connectivity: Case for Türkiye and its neighbors

Intense trade between China and Europe increases the competition between Mediterranean, Aegean and Black Sea countries on alternative routes. To obtain a significant share from this sector, connectivity to the transportation network must be sufficient. The most important indicator developed for the measurement of connectivity is Liner Shipping Connectivity Index (LSCI). By using this index, inferences can be made about possible competitors by determining which countries’ differences diverge or converge in the long run. In the research, a sample of Türkiye’s neighbors and competitors in maritime transportation was formed, which includes Bulgaria, Egypt, Georgia, Greece, Israel, Lebanon, Romania, Russia and Ukraine. To test the convergence, we tested unit root by using the log differences of the LSCI values of Türkiye and other countries. The countries converging with Türkiye are Bulgaria, Lebanon, Romania, and Ukraine. Since the average LSCI values of the converging countries are lower than Türkiye, they will become possible competitors in the region. Egypt and Greece are diverging and their dominant role in the region will continue. It would be beneficial for Türkiye to strengthen its infrastructure in alternative transportation routes as well as maritime transportation.El intenso comercio entre China y Europa aumenta la competencia entre los países del Mediterráneo, el Egeo y el Mar Negro en rutas alternativas. Para obtener una participación significativa de este sector, la conectividad a las redes de transporte debe ser adecuada. El indicador más importante desarrollado para medir la conectividad es el Liner Shipping Connectivity Index (LSCI). Al utilizar este índice, se pueden hacer inferencias sobre posibles competidores al determinar qué diferencias de países divergen o convergen en el largo plazo. En la investigación se creó una muestra de los vecinos y competidores de Türkiye en el transporte marítimo, que incluye a Bulgaria, Egipto, Georgia, Grecia, Israel, Líbano, Rumania, Rusia y Ucrania. Para comprobar la convergencia probamos la raíz unitaria utilizando las diferencias logarítmicas de los valores LSCI de Türkiye y otros países. Los países que convergen con Türkiye son Bulgaria, Líbano, Rumania y Ucrania. Dado que los valores medios del LSCI de los países convergentes son inferiores a los de Türkiye, se convertirán en posibles competidores en la región. Egipto y Grecia están divergiendo y su papel dominante en la región continuará. Sería beneficioso para Türkiye fortalecer su infraestructura en rutas de transporte alternativas, así como en transporte marítimo

Analyzing the convergence of transport network connectivity: Case for Türkiye and its neighbors

El intenso comercio entre China y Europa aumenta la competencia entre los países del Mediterráneo, el Egeo y el Mar Negro en rutas alternativas. Para obtener una participación significativa de este sector, la conectividad a las redes de transporte debe ser adecuada. El indicador más importante desarrollado para medir la conectividad es el Liner Shipping Connectivity Index (LSCI). Al utilizar este índice, se pueden hacer inferencias sobre posibles competidores al determinar qué diferencias de países divergen o convergen en el largo plazo. En la investigación se creó una muestra de los vecinos y competidores de Türkiye en el transporte marítimo, que incluye a Bulgaria, Egipto, Georgia, Grecia, Israel, Líbano, Rumania, Rusia y Ucrania. Para comprobar la convergencia probamos la raíz unitaria utilizando las diferencias logarítmicas de los valores LSCI de Türkiye y otros países. Los países que convergen con Türkiye son Bulgaria, Líbano, Rumania y Ucrania. Dado que los valores medios del LSCI de los países convergentes son inferiores a los de Türkiye, se convertirán en posibles competidores en la región. Egipto y Grecia están divergiendo y su papel dominante en la región continuará. Sería beneficioso para Türkiye fortalecer su infraestructura en rutas de transporte alternativas, así como en transporte marítimo

Balıkçı gemilerinde seyir sırasındaki risklerin belirlenmesi

Bu çalışmada balıkçı gemilerinin seyir sırasındaki riskleri ve çeşitli çevresel faktörlerin balıkçı gemisi kazalarındaki etkisi belirlenmiştir. Böylece balıkçıların denize çıkmadan önce çevresel şartlara göre risk değerlendirmesi yapabilmesi için bir model oluşturulmuştur. Çalışmada Fine-Kinney risk değerlendirme metodu kullanılmıştır. Fine-Kinney metodunda ihtimal, netice ve sıklık parametreleri birbirleriyle çarpılarak bir risk puanı bulunur. Bulunan sayı ile risk puanı ve aksiyon planı çizelgesine girilerek operasyonun risk seviyesi tespit edilir. Risk değerlendirmeleri ihtimal dâhilindeki kazaların önceden saptanarak tedbir alınmasını veya operasyondan vazgeçilerek kazaların önlenmesini sağlar. Bu bağlamda, İskele ve Çeşmealtı balıkçı barınaklarında balıkçı teknesi olan 30 balıkçı ile risk değerlendirilmesi yapılmıştır. Anket sorularıyla birlikte kaza ihtimal ve netice ölçütlerinin değerlendirilmesi genel anlamda çıkarım yapmamızı sağlamıştır. Risk puanı hesaplanırken ise gerek deniz seyrinde gerek liman seyrinde yerel koşullara maruz kalma sıklığı çalışmaya dahil olduğundan dolayı çalışma yerel koşullara bağlı sonuçlar da vermektedir. Balıkçıların değerlendirmeleri sonucu ortaya çıkan puanların toplamına göre deniz seyrinde kaza ihtimal ve neticesini arttıran en yüksek etken olarak kısıtlı görüşü belirlemişken liman seyrinde gece ve şiddetli hava koşulunu en yüksek etken olarak belirlemişlerdir. Ayrıca kendi limanlarında yaptıkları seyri deniz seyrine göre daha emniyetli buldukları söylenebilir. Balıkçılardan yaşadıkları kaza sayıları fazla olanlar makine-dümen arızasını daha fazla yaşamıştır, liman seyrinde kısıtlı görüş ile şiddetli havada gece seyrinde kaza ihtimalini daha yüksek tespit etmişlerdir.In this study, the risks of fishing during navigation were determined and the extent to which various environmental factors were effective in fishing vessel accidents was revealed in detail. Thus, a model has been made so that fishermen can make risk assessments according to environmental conditions before sailing. Fine-Kinney risk assessment method was used in the study. In the Fine-Kinney method, probability, consequnce and frequency parameters are multiplied with each other to obtain a risk score. The risk level of the operation is determined by entering the number found in the risk score and action plan chart. Risk assessments ensure that possible accidents are detected in advance and measures are taken or the operation is abandoned and accidents are prevented. Evaluation of accident probability and consequence values together with the survey questions enabled us to draw conclusions in general. Calculating the risk score gives results depending on local conditions, since the frequency of exposure to local conditions will be included in the study, both in coastal navigation and port approach. As per the total number determined by fishermen evaluations the reduced visibility as the highest factor increasing the probability and consequence of the accident in sea navigation, while they determined severe weather conditions as the highest factor in the night navigating at the port. In addition, it can be said that they find the navigation in their own ports safer than the sea navigation. Among the fishermen, those who had more accidents experienced the machine-rudder failure more. In addition some significant differences between accident number and fisherman evaluations about accident probability and consequence values

Determination of risk perception in small-scale fishing and navigation

In this study, risk perception and the impact of various environmental factors on accidents involving fishing vessels in small-scale fishing vessels during navigation were examined. Thirty fishing vessel captains from Çeşmealtı and İskele fishing ports evaluated the risks of environmental conditions under different scenarios in the bridge navigation simulator based on the Fine-Kinney risk assessment method. Nonparametric (Mann-Whitney U-test) and parametric tests (Pearson correlation and independent-samples t-test) were performed to analyse other related parameters. The study also conducted a small questionnaire study that included questions such as the number of past accidents by fishermen and the number of engine rudder failures. According to the sum of the fishermen's assessments, reduced visibility was the highest factor increasing the probability and consequences of accidents in sea navigation, while they identified night and heavy weather conditions as the highest factor in port navigation. Fishermen also found navigating their ports safer than sea navigation. There is a significant, positive, and strong correlation between the number of fishermen’s accidents and the number of engine rudder failures (p=0.047, r=0.714), the perception of accident probabilities in port navigating with restricted visibility (p=0.027, r=0.726) and in port navigation at night and in heavy weather (p=0.003, r=0.866). According to the results of the study, using the outcomes of the pre-fishing environmental risk assessment, the competent maritime authorities may be able to take effective measures to prevent the occurrence of serious marine casualties

Comparative Evaluation of the Interior Design Processes of Rentable Stores in Shopping Malls in Turkey

Having a critical importance for the retail sector in Turkey and increasing in number every day, shopping malls have a dynamic structure due to their character. In order to ensure the sustainability of their functionality, those who manage these buildings, which are constantly updated / renewed and exposed to tenant / user circulation, need to regulate the spatial organization processes in order to keep the said dynamism under control. In this sense, the most effective and valid instrument is the decoration specifications.&nbsp; &nbsp;There is a need for a well-structured specification for the rentable areas within the structure of shopping malls, each of which has a different corporate identity, to carry the design line of the shopping malls and to reflect the brand concept of the tenants. The specification covers not only architectural but also electrical and mechanical projects where all stores are fed from a common infrastructure. In this study, a comparative evaluation of the specifications regulating the decoration processes of the shopping malls, which have become the locomotive of retail merchandising in big cities, is presented in the context of architectural, electrical, and mechanical headings. Within the scope of the study, different scaled shopping malls, which are in Istanbul, which has the highest number of shopping malls in Turkey, and which were determined to operate the decoration processes systematically with expert opinions were handled.&nbsp;</p

Asymmetric Reflection of The Chinese Economy on Container Freights: An Application Using The Li Keqiang Index

Maritime transport carries great risks for both ship and cargo owners as it shows great changes in a short time. GDP, which is an indispensable variable of the predictive models of transportation costs, is subject to criticism that it is inflated due to political concerns. The Li Keqiang index, which has been proposed in China as an alternative to this measurement tool, has not yet received sufficient attention in the literature. We examined the effect of the Chinese economy, which is considered one of the dominant countries in maritime trade, on freights of container transportation with this new indicator. The research conducted using asymmetric causality analysis showed that negative shocks on the country's economy have a decreasing effect on the container freights on the Shanghai-Rotterdam two-way routes, while positive shocks have a one-way increasing effect on the route from Shanghai to Los Angeles. Additionally, asymmetric effects from freight to the economy are determined on some routes. The results will be useful in developing proactive contract strategies for both shipowners and cargo owners. © 2022, Symmetrion. All rights reserved

Estimating the ship traffic in the Istanbul Strait through economic growth of region countries

The current study predicts the future course of ships passing through the İstanbul Strait. In this direction, considering that the world economy is the biggest factor in the demand for maritime transport, the relationship between the GDPs and trade volumes of t he B lack S ea s tates, a nd s hip traffic is analyzed using regression estimation in two separate models. The included countries are Bulgaria, Georgia, Romania, Russia, Turkey and Ukraine. Then, considering the growth forecasts published by the IMF for the relevant states, it was estimated how much an increase in traffic would be in 2026 compared to 2020. Considering the coefficients obtained from the two models, in 2026, the GDP model proposes a 20.02% increase, and the trade volume model proposes a 28.8% increase in ship tonnage passing the strait. These results reveal the importance and necessity of strategies and projects developed to regulate the rise in strait traffic

Impact of Geopolitical Risk on International Trade: Evidence from Container Throughputs

It is of great importance for manufacturers and consumers that raw materials and products can be delivered on time without any disruption in the supply chain. The fact that production chains can be located in more than one country in the globalized world makes the smooth operation of the supply chain partially difficult. For this reason, especially suppliers may stop doing business with countries where geopolitical risk is high, and this may change the container traffic of countries. Therefore, this study empirically tests whether geopolitical risks change the container volumes of countries. Our sample includes 15 of the 19 countries in the world for which the geopolitical risk index is calculated because some values of the excluded countries are missing. The countries included are Argentina, Brazil, China, Colombia, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Philippines, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Thailand, and Türkiye in alphabetical order. The period covered consists of 21 observations annually, covering the years between 2000 and 2020. The asymmetric causality test method was applied to consider the possible asymmetrical consequences of the geopolitical risk on the container trade in the countries. The panel causality test results obtained show that positive shocks in geopolitical risk cause negative shocks in container traffic. These results show that the security and stability of the countries around them are critical for the country\u27s economy, as well as the security and stability of the countries themselves. Countries that want to grow commercially should develop their policies by considering regional security and stability

Impact of Liner Shipping Connectivity on Container Traffic in Turkish Ports

Demand for the transport sector is a derived demand; however, the transport sector is not only affected by the demand for the goods transported, but can also influence demand for itself by providing more transport facilities, which can affect trade by generating more options for foreign trade stakeholders. Accordingly, we have examined the effect of the Liner Shipping Connectivity Index (LSCI) variable, which is an indicator of countries\u27 liner transportation connectivity, on Turkey\u27s export and import container traffic, by using regression analysis. We have enriched our model by adding the real exchange rate variable, which is the most important factor affecting foreign trade. Our results show that a 1% increase in the country\u27s LSCI increases export and import container traffic by approximately 1%. This result shows that not only exchange rate and production policies, but also transportation policies, are critical in improving foreign trade of the country. The development of transportation facilities can both reduce transport costs and shorten the delivery time, thereby supporting Turkey\u27s policies to become a production centre