Risk factors for mortality among children under 5 years of age with severe diarrhea in low- and middle-income countries: Findings from the WHO-coordinated Global Rotavirus and Pediatric Diarrhea Surveillance Networks.

BACKGROUND: Diarrhea is the second leading cause of death in children under five years of age globally. The burden of diarrheal mortality is concentrated in low-resource settings. Little is known about the risk factors for childhood death from diarrheal disease in low and middle-income countries. METHODS: Data from the WHO-coordinated Global Rotavirus and Pediatric Diarrhea Surveillance Networks, which are composed of active, sentinel, hospital-based surveillance sites, were analyzed to assess mortality in children less than five years of age who were hospitalized with diarrhea between 2008-2018. Case fatality risks were calculated, and multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify risk factors for mortality. RESULTS: This analysis is comprised of 234,781 cases, including 1,219 deaths, across 57 countries. The overall case fatality risk was found to be 0.5%. Risk factors for death in the multivariable analysis included younger age (for <6 months compared with older ages, OR = 3.54; 95% CI = 2.81-4.50), female sex (OR = 1.18; 95% CI= 1.06-1.81), presenting with persistent diarrhea (OR = 1.91; 95% CI= 1.01-3.25), no vomiting (OR = 1.13, 95% CI= 0.98-1.30), severe dehydration (OR = 3.79; 95% CI = 3.01-4.83), and being negative for rotavirus on an ELISA test (OR = 2.29; 95% CI= 1.92-2.74). Cases from the African Region had the highest odds of death compared with other WHO Regions (OR = 130.62 comparing the African Region to the European region; 95% CI= 55.72-422.73), while cases from the European region had the lowest odds of death. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings support known risk factors for childhood diarrheal mortality and highlight the need for interventions to address dehydration and rotavirus-negative diarrheal infections

Estimating the Impact of Vaccination Campaigns on Measles Transmission in Somalia

Somalia is a complex and fragile setting with a demonstrated potential for disruptive, high-burden measles outbreaks. In response, since 2018, Somalian authorities have partnered with UNICEF and the WHO to implement measles vaccination campaigns across the country. In this paper, we create a Somalia-specific model of measles transmission based on a comprehensive epidemiological dataset including case-based surveillance, vaccine registries, and serological surveys. We use this model to assess the impact of these campaign interventions on Somalian’s measles susceptibility, showing, for example, that across the roughly 10 million doses delivered, 1 of every 5 immunized a susceptible child. Finally, we use the model to explore a counter-factual epidemiology without the 2019–2020 campaigns, and we estimate that those interventions prevented over 10,000 deaths