Using Elicited Choice Probabilities to Estimate Random Utility Models: Preferences for Electricity Reliability

When data on actual choices are not available, researchers studying preferences sometimes pose choice scenarios and ask respondents to state the actions they would choose if they were to face these scenarios. The data on stated choices are then used to estimate random utility models, as if they are data on actual choices. Stated choices may differ from actual ones because researchers typically provide respondents with less information than they would have facing actual choice problems. Elicitation of choice probabilities overcomes this problem by permitting respondents to express uncertainty about their behavior. This paper shows how to use elicited choice probabilities to estimate random utility models with random coefficients and applies the methodology to estimate preferences for electricity reliability in Israel.

Assessing Damages: The 1983 Israeli Bank Shares Crisis

In 1983 Israeli bank shares collapsed following several years during which the bank had actively intervened to promote share prices and thereby contributed to a 300% rise in real terms. During the crisis the government assumed control of the banks, which they did not begin to sell back to the public until 1993. We compare 1993 bank share prices after the banks were partially re-listed on the stock market values were$10 billion lower than in 1983, a decline born by pre-crisis shareholders ($4 billion) and by taxpayers ($6 billion). Of this latter amount, two-thirds represent a transfer from the government to the shareholders, while approximately one-third represents an efficiency loss- and hence a direct cost- resulting from government ownership of the banks for 10 years following the crisis. The results highlight the risk inherent in a banking system that is both concentrated and universal and illustrates the costs associated with sustained government ownership

The Costs of Laws Limiting that Choice

This paper grew out of a project performed by Lexecon for the American Petroleum Institute. The views in the paper are solely those of the authors and not necessarily those of API or the National Bureau of Economic Research. We thank Thomas Hogarty for helpful comments

Does the Baseball Labor Market Contradict the Human Capital Model of Investment?

This paper examines whether experienced players in Major League Baseball are paid more than their contribution to team revenue. The author shows that wages increase with experience independently of productivity gains. The results, therefore, contradict the human capital model of investment. The evidence is in fact consistent with implicit contract models because most older players are relatively overpaid. Copyright 1992 by MIT Press.

Financing R&D in mature companies: An empirical analysis

We study financing patterns of publicly traded R&D-intensive manufacturing firms in Israel. We further characterize R&D-intensive firms by size, physical capital intensity, and whether they issued stocks in the United States, asking whether these features are associated with particular financing patterns. To address these issues, we present, for the first time, adjusted flow of funds charts that treat R&D expenses as a capital outlay (rather than an operating cost that reduces profits, as standard accounting principles prescribe). We also address the question of how R&D inputs should be measured - using R&D expenses or R&D personnel. We construct both expenditure- and personnel-based R&D measures for each firm in our sample, and investigate to what extent these measures are mutually consistent.Cash Flow, Equity, Financing, Flow Of Funds, Government Grants And Subsidies, R&D,