Economic History or History of Economics? A Review Essay on Sylvia Nasar's Grand Pursuit: The Story of Economic Genius

In this essay I review Sylvia Nasar's long awaited new history of economics, Grand Pursuit. I describe how the book is an economic history of the period from 1850-1950, with distinguished economists' stories inserted in appropriate places. Nasar's goal is to show how economists work, but also to show that they are people too – with more than enough warts and foibles to show they are human! I contrast the general view of the role of economics in Grand Pursuit with Robert Heilbroner's remarkably different conception in The Worldly Philosophers. I also discuss more generally the question of why economists might be interested in their history at all.economic history, economic growth, economic policy

Measuring the Value of a Statistical Life: Problems and Prospects

Tradeoffs between monetary wealth and fatal safety risks are summarized in the value of a statistical life (VSL), a measure that is widely used for the evaluation of public policies in medicine, the environment, and transportation safety. This paper demonstrates the widespread use of this concept and summarizes the major issues, both theoretical and empirical, that must be confronted in order to provide a credible estimate of a VSL. The paper concludes with an application of these issues to a particular study of speed limits and highway safety.

Economic History or History of Economics? A Review Essay on Sylvia Nasar’s Grand Pursuit: the Story of Economic Genius

In this essay I review Sylvia Nasar’s long awaited new history of economics, Grand Pursuit. I describe how the book is really an economic history of the period from 1850-1950, with distinguished economists’ stories inserted in appropriate places. Nasar’s goal is to show how economists work, but also to show that they are people too--with more than enough warts and foibles to show they are human! I contrast the general view of the role of economics in Grand Pursuit with Robert Heilbroner’s remarkably different conception in The Worldly Philosophers. I also discuss more generally the question of why economists might be interested in their history at all.

Using Estimates of Income and Substitution Parameters to Predict the Work Incentive Effects of Various Income Maintenance Programs: A Brief Exposition and Partial Survey of the Empirical Literature

[Excerpt] In this paper we have set down a moderately rigorous exposition of the use of conventional economic analysis for the purpose of estimating the work (dis)incentives resulting from the institution of various income maintenance schemes. Most of the analysis is couched in terms of simplified versions of the Family Assistance Plan (FAP), a variant of a negative income tax, and a wage subsidy program. Our intent is to set out the conventional theory of labor supply in an easily understood way, to show how this theory may be helpful in the examination of an issue of importance to public policy, and to survey the available empirical literature for reasonable estimates of the parameters necessary for implementation of the theory. What we will do in the sequel is perfectly conventional. The only wrinkles are that we will try to simplify and verbalize the analysis often, and we will try to integrate various income maintenance schemes into the analysis to see what implications are provided regarding work (dis)incentives from them. There are accordingly three parts to the paper: Part I is a strictly verbal discussion of everything that follows. Part II is a more conventional discussion with some mathematics. Part III is a review of much of the empirical work currently available. Our discussion throughout draws heavily on two previous papers

Anatomy of the Rise and Fall of a Price-Fixing Conspiracy: Auctions at Sotheby’s and Christie’s

The Sotheby’s/Christie’s price-fixing scandal that ended in the public trial of Alfred Taubman provides a unique window on a number of key economic and antitrust policy issues related to the use of the auction system. The trial provided detailed evidence as to how the price fixing worked, and the economic conditions under which it was started and began to fall apart. The outcome of the case also provides evidence on the novel auction process used to choose the lead counsel for the civil settlement. Finally, though buyers received the bulk of the damages, a straightforward application of the economic theory of auctions shows that it is unlikely that successful buyers as a group were injured.auctions, price-fixing, cartels, antitrust, commissions

Why Have Unemployment Rates in Canada and the U.S. Diverged?

Throughout the post-war period, U.S. and Canadian unemployent rates moved in tandem, but this historical link apparently ended in 1982. During the past three years, Canadian unemployment rates have been some three percentage points higher than their U.S. analogues, and this gap shows no sign of diminishing. This paper is an empirical evaluation of a variety of explanations for this new unemployment gap. We first show that the demographic and industrial composition of the two countries is remarkably similar, so that no simple mechanical hypothesis explain the basic puzzle. It is also evident that the increase in Canadian unemployment relative to U.S. unemployment can not be fully attributed to output movements. We find that the gap between actual and predicted Canadian output, based on U.S. output, has fallen dramatically since 1982 while the unemployment gap has widened. We also find that unemployment in Canada was 2 to 3 percentage points higher in 1983 and 1984 than predicted by Canadian output. We have investigated a variety of hypotheses to explain the slow growth of employment in Canada after 1982. These hypotheses attribute the slow growth of employment to rigidities in the labor market that raise employers' costs and restrict the flow of workers between sectors. The evidence does not support the notion that the growth in relative unemployment in Canada is due to differences in the regulation of the labor market in the two countries. Minimum wage laws and unemployment benefits are fairly similar in Canada and the U.S., and neither has changed relative to the other in the last decade. Unionization rates have increased in Canada relative to US. since 1970. Most of this divergence occured before 1980, however, and does not seem to have created an unemployment gap prior to 1980. Finally,the hypothesis that differential real wage rates are a major determinant of relative employment in the U.S. and Canada is soundly rejected by the data. Real wage rates have been essentially uncorrelated with employment movements within each country and between the two countries.

Sale Rates and Price Movements in Art Auctions

This paper examines the relationship between sale rates and price shocks in art auctions. Using data on contemporary and impressionist art, we show that while sale rates appear to have little relationship to current prices, there exists a strong negative relationship of sale rates to unexpected price shocks, which is reminiscent of a Phillips curve. We estimate an empirical model that suggests that the reserve price is set on average at about 70% of the low estimate.

Estimating the Value of a Statistical Life: The Importance of Omitted Variables and Publication Bias

Measures of public preferences toward risk are critical to evaluations of public policies on many safety, environmental, and health issues. In this paper we provide a method for measuring the revealed preferences for safety risks from state level public choices about speed limits. The idea is to measure the value of the time saved per incremental fatality that results from the voluntary adoption of an increased speed limit. Since adopters must have valued the time saved by greater speeds more than the fatalities created, this ratio provides a convincing and credible upper bound on the value of a statistical life (VSL).