Electron-Ion Structure Factors and the General Accuracy of Linear Response

We show that electron-ion structure factors in fluid metallic systems can be well understood from an application of linear response in the electron system, combined with hard-sphere like correlation for the ionic component. In particular, we predict that electron-ion structure factors fall into two general classes, one for high ($Z>3$) and one for low ($Z\leq2$) valence metals, and make suggestions for experiments to test these ideas. In addition, we show how the general success of electronic linear response for most metallic systems stems in part from an intrinsic interference between atomic and electronic length scales which weakens the nonlinear response. The main exception to this is metallic hydrogen.Comment: to appear in J. Non-Crystalline Solids, part of LAM-10 conference proceedings. RevTex, 12 pages, 2 figure

Outlook and appraisal [March 2011]

The Scottish economy may be continuing to recover from recession but the rate of recovery appears to be slowing even when allowance is made for the difficult weather this winter

Outlook and appraisal [November 2009]

Scotland and the UK are lagging behind as the rest of Europe, Japan and the United States start to recover from recession. The UK remained in recession in the third quarter and it seems likely that will be the outcome for Scotland too

Failures in childbirth care

The study, first published in 2003, looks at the root causes of adverse events and near misses in obstetrics at seven hospital maternity units by interviewing 93 members of staff, identifying the areas of mismanagement in each case and thematically analysing them

Outlook and appraisal [October 2003]

The Scottish economy weakened appreciably in the first quarter of this year. Of particular note was the extreme weakness of the service sector, which has helped support the Scottish growth rate through the difficult period since 2000 of global recession in electronics and in related IT industries. Scottish manufacturing remained in recession at the beginning of the year continuing the decline that has persisted for 12 consecutive quarters. UK manufacturing in contrast appears to have arrested its decline even if it has not properly begun the process of recovery. Yet, the balance of later data suggests that the world economy is recovering led by the US and the non- Japanese Asian economies. But the growth performance of the Euro area remains weak. The UK economy after dicing with recession in the first quarter showed clear signs of picking up in the second quarter and subsequent developments have led to expectations that interest rates will have to rise if not at the end of this year then soon after the beginning of the next. Recent Scottish survey data also appear to suggest that growth is returning to the Scottish economy. Against this background we have again slightly revised down our forecast for 2003 with recovery becoming better established in 2004

The UK economy [October 2002]

The UK economy is weaker at this time than expected in early summer. As growth in the global economy continues to be weak forecasters have tended to revise down slightly their forecasts for both this year and next. Against this background the inflation picture has improved and the prospect of a rise in interest rates has receded. But the labour market has weakened slightly over the last few months. The net trade position is improving as exports pick up and the growth of domestic consumer demand appears to be moderating slightly. The prospects of a shift to export- led growth as the world economy recovers therefore seem brighter than earlier in the year. Nevertheless, there are considerable uncertainties in the world economy for both real economic as well as political reasons, such as the growing threat of a war with Iraq

Outlook and appraisal [November 2011]

In the June Commentary we stressed that the Scottish economy was threatened with stagnation as the rate of recovery slows. This threat is even more real today than it was then. Growth has continued to weaken in the global economy and is weaker in the UK and Scottish economies too. The UK economy has effectively stagnated over the last year, growing by only 0.5%. In Scotland growth was flat between April and June and business surveys suggest continuing weakness in the third quarter. The UK has recovered more strongly than Scotland, by nearly 3% compared to around 1% to 2% in Scotland, even though the recovery is weak overall. There is little comfort in the latest GDP data for both Scotland and the UK. This is underlined by the latest US real GDP figures which reveal an annualised growth rate of 2.5% for the third quarter of this year. Growth in the US is still weak by the standards of previous recoveries and insufficient to make much of a dent in the high levels of unemployment. Yet, it is notable that with the latest quarter's results, GDP in the US economy moved back above its pre-recession peak output, whereas the UK and Scotland are still - in the second quarter - 5% and 4%, respectively, below their pre-recession GDP. It will not go unnoticed that, unlike the UK, the US has only recently adopted an austerity programme, which has yet to kick in. We therefore welcome the Bank of England's decision to undertake a further expansion of the money stock through quantitative easing and note that there is still scope for some fiscal easing without damaging our fiscal credibility in the long-term

Outlook and appraisal [June 2006]

Scottish economic growth continues to match growth in the UK and has done so as UK economic growth improved from the first quarter of 2005. Normally, Scottish economic growth would be expected to be stronger relative to the UK in a downturn and weaker in an upturn due to a flatter growth cycle. This picture of relative buoyancy is clouded by an effective downturn in Scottish service sector performance in the final quarter of last year

Outlook and appraisal [November 2004]

Strong growth in the second quarter suggests that the Scottish economy has recovered from the doldrums of the previous three quarters. A rebound in service sector performance was the main reason. Manufacturing remains weak, although the sector has exhibited some positive growth over the last three quarters. Electronics production continues to contract in Scotland, whereas this is not the case in the UK as a whole. Financial and business services are leading the recovery in Scottish services, supported by retail and hotels and catering. Analysis of Scotland's GDP per head performance during the 1990s and the first two years of the current decade, highlights Scotland's relatively weaker productivity performance when compared to the UK. But Scotland also appears to have enjoyed a better labour market performance with a rising employment rate and movement of the population into the labour force contributing more to the growth of GDP per head than in the UK. This analysis highlights the productivity challenge facing Scotland. But it also emphasises the importance of migration and population enhancing policies to prevent a declining population from eroding many of the opportunities for future GDP per head growth

Outlook and appraisal [June 2010]

As the Scottish economy emerges from recession a slowly strengthening recovery is threatened by the massive fiscal consolidation package introduced by the new Conservative/Liberal Democrat coalition government in the emergency Budget of 22nd June