Appendix for Asfandyar Mir, "What Explains Counterterrorism Effectiveness? Evidence from the U.S. Drone War in Pakistan," International Security, Vol. 43, No. 2 (Fall 2018), pp. 45–83, doi:10.1162/isec_a_00331.

Appendix for Asfandyar Mir, "What Explains Counterterrorism Effectiveness? Evidence from the U.S. Drone War in Pakistan," International Security, Vol. 43, No. 2 (Fall 2018), pp. 45–83, doi:10.1162/isec_a_00331. This appendix contains details on the fieldwork, a summary of interview data, the protocol for interviews, challenges to the interview process, documents obtained through fieldwork cited in the main text, longitudinal coding of key indicators, and some additional narrative details relevant to the research design

Explaining Effectiveness in Modern Counterinsurgency

Why are some counterinsurgency campaigns effective while others are not? Existing theories give primacy to hearts-and-minds strategies, preponderance of state forces, and type of rebel group as determinants of effectiveness. This dissertation argues that variation in effectiveness results from differences in select tactical, organizational, and technological capabilities of the counterinsurgent state, captured by the concept of Legibility and Speed-of-Exploitation System (L&S). The L&S varies in the legibility of the population (legibility) and the speed of exploitation of legibility gains (speed). This dissertation shows that campaigns attaining high L&S are effective even when failing to implement a hearts-and-minds strategy, fighting resilient insurgents, and without adequate force levels. Further, the dissertation shows that the variation in the L&S is shaped by the domestic political salience of the counterinsurgency effort and prior experience of counterinsurgent forces in internal war. The dissertation tests predictions of the new theory and orthodox theories in multiple counterinsurgency campaigns and conflicts using novel fieldwork data, archival materials, and historiography: Indian counterinsurgency in Punjab (1984-1994) and Jammu and Kashmir (1989-1999), Pakistani counterinsurgency in the North West Frontier (2002-2011), British counterinsurgency in Malaya (1952-55) and Kenya (1953-56), US counterinsurgency in Iraq (2007-2010), and US Drone War in Pakistan (2004 to 2014). The dissertation’s theory and findings challenge the conventional wisdom that success in counterinsurgency is tied to winning the support of the civilian population

Political Coalitions and Social Media: Evidence from Pakistan

Social media is frequently an arena of intense competition among major political actors across the world. We argue that a fruitful way of understanding this competition is as coalitions among key actors and their networks of followers. These coalitions can both advance a shared political message and target mutual rivals. Importantly, coalitions can be tacit or explicit, and they do not necessarily depend on direct state manipulation or repression, although they often do. This makes a coalitional framework particularly valuable for studying complex political environments in which online actors blend cooperation and competition. Empirically, we show the value of this approach with novel data collection and analysis of Twitter and Facebook content from 2018–19 in Pakistan, with a focus on the dynamics leading up to and following the controversial 2018 general election. We map out networks of narrative alignment and conflict on Pakistani social media, providing important insights into the relationships among the major political parties, military, media, and dissidents. Future research can fruitfully explore the causes and effects of powerful social media coalitions