Fingolimod versus interferon beta 1-a: Benefit-harm assessment approach based on TRANSFORMS individual patient data

BACKGROUND Fingolimod is a disease-modifying drug approved for multiple sclerosis but its benefit-harm balance has never been assessed compared to other active treatments. OBJECTIVES Our aim was to compare the benefits and harms of fingolimod with interferon beta-1a using individual patient data from TRial Assessing injectable interferon versus FTY720 Oral in RRMS trial. METHODS We modelled the health status of patients over time including Expanded Disability Status Scale measurements, relapses and any adverse events. We assessed the mean health status between arms and the proportion of patients whose health deteriorated or improved relatively to baseline, using a prespecified minimal important difference of 4.6. We performed sensitivity analyses to test our assumptions. RESULTS Main and sensitivity analyses favoured fingolimod 0.5 mg over interferon beta-1a. The average health status difference was 1.01 (95% CI 0.93-1.08). Patients on fingolimod 0.5 mg were 0.47 (95% CI: 0.35-0.63, p < 0.001) times less likely to experience a relevant decline in health status compared to interferon beta-1a patients, with a number needed to treat of 7.10 [5.18, 11.23]. CONCLUSIONS Fingolimod's net benefit over interferon beta-1a did not reach the clinical relevance over 1 year, but the decreased risk for health status deterioration may be more pronounced more long term and patients may prefer less treatment burden associated with fingolimod

Mental health of individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 during mandated isolation and compliance with recommendations-A population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND: Isolation is an indispensable measure to contain the SARS-CoV-2 virus, but it may have a negative impact on mental health and overall wellbeing. Evidence on the isolation experience, facilitating and complicating factors is needed to mitigate negative effects. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This observational, population-based cohort study enrolled 1547 adults from the general population with SARS-CoV-2 infection reported to authorities between 27 February 2020 and 19 January 2021 in Zurich, Switzerland. We assessed the proportion of individuals reporting symptoms of depression and anxiety before, during and after isolation (by DASS-21), and queried worries, positive experiences, and difficulties. We analyzed the association of these outcomes with socio-demographics using ordinal regression. Additionally, we report free-text statements by participants to capture most important aspects of isolation. The proportion of participants affected by depression or anxiety increased during isolation from 10·0% to 17·1% and 9·1% to 17·6%, respectively. Ordinal regression showed that taking care of children increased the difficulty of isolation (OR 2·10, CI 1·43-3·08) and risk of non-compliance (OR 1·63, CI 1·05-2·53), especially in younger participants. A facilitating factor that individuals commonly expressed was receiving more support during isolation. CONCLUSION: Isolation due to SARS-CoV-2 presents a mental burden, especially for younger individuals and those taking care of children. Public health authorities need to train personnel and draw from community-based resources to provide targeted support, information, and guidance to individuals during isolation. Such efforts could alleviate the negative impact isolation has on the mental and physical health of individuals and ensure compliance of the population with recommendations

Natural course of post COVID-19 condition and implications for trial design and outcome selection: A population-based longitudinal cohort study

Background Evidence from population-based studies on the longer-term natural course of post COVID-19 condition is limited, but crucial for informing patients and healthcare providers and for effectively designing clinical trials. Objectives To evaluate longer-term symptoms and health outcomes within a cohort of SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals. Design Population-based, longitudinal cohort. Setting General population, Canton of Zurich, Switzerland. Patients 1543 adults with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection and 628 adults without infection. Measurements Changes in self-reported health status over time, factors associated with persistence of non-recovery, and prevalence and excess risk of symptoms at 6 and 12 months post-infection compared to non-infected individuals. Results 25% of SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals did not recover by 6 months. Of those, 67% and 58% also did not recover at 12 and 18 months after infection, respectively. Hospitalization for acute COVID-19, pre-existing fatigue and pain or discomfort, and presence of specific systemic, cardiovascular, or musculoskeletal symptoms at 6 months were associated with persistent non-recovery. Symptom prevalence was higher among infected individuals compared to non-infected individuals at 6 months (adjusted risk difference (aRD)=17%) and 12 months (aRD=20%). aRDs for individual symptoms ranged from 2% to 12%, with the highest excess risks observed for altered taste or smell, post-exertional malaise, fatigue, and reduced concentration and memory. Limitations We relied on self-reported assessments and did not assess the effects of vaccination or infection with emerging variants of concern. Conclusion These findings emphasize the need for effective interventions to reduce the burden of post COVID-19 condition. They further demonstrate the importance of using multiple outcome measures and of considering the expected rates of natural recovery and heterogenous patient trajectories in the design and interpretation of clinical trials

Individual-Level Evaluation of the Exposure Notification Cascade in the SwissCovid Digital Proximity Tracing App: Observational Study

Background: Digital proximity tracing (DPT) aims to complement manual contact tracing (MCT) in identifying exposed contacts and preventing further transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the population. Although several DPT apps, including SwissCovid, have shown to have promising effects on mitigating the pandemic, several challenges have impeded them from fully achieving the desired results. A key question now relates to how the effectiveness of DPT can be improved, which requires a better understanding of factors influencing its processes. Objective: In this study, we aim to provide a detailed examination of the exposure notification (EN) cascade and to evaluate potential contextual influences for successful receipt of an EN and subsequent actions taken by cases and contacts in different exposure settings. Methods: We used data from 285 pairs of SARS-CoV-2-infected cases and their contacts within an observational cohort study of cases and contacts identified by MCT and enrolled between August 6, 2020, and January 17, 2021, in the canton of Zurich, Switzerland. We surveyed participants with electronic questionnaires. Data were summarized descriptively and stratified by exposure setting. Results: We found that only 79 (58.5%) of 135 contacts using the SwissCovid app whose corresponding cases reported to have triggered the EN also received one. Of these, 18 (22.8%) received the EN before MCT. Compared to those receiving an EN after MCT (61/79, 77.2%), we observed that a higher proportion of contacts receiving an EN before MCT were exposed in nonhousehold settings (11/18, 61.1%, vs 34/61, 55.7%) and their corresponding cases had more frequently reported mild-to-moderate symptoms (14/18, 77.8%, vs 42/61, 68.9%). Of the 18 contacts receiving an EN before MCT, 14 (77.8%) took recommended measures: 12 (66.7%) were tested for SARS-CoV-2, and 7 (38.9%) called the SwissCovid Infoline. In nonhousehold settings, the proportion of contacts taking preventive actions after receiving an EN was higher compared to same-household settings (82%, vs 67%). In addition, 1 (9%) of 11 ENs received in the nonhousehold setting before MCT led to the identification of a SARS-CoV-2-infected case by prompting the contact to get tested. This corresponds to 1 in 85 exposures of a contact to a case in a nonhousehold setting, in which both were app users and the case triggered the EN. Conclusions: Our descriptive evaluation of the DPT notification cascade provides further evidence that DPT is an important complementary tool in pandemic mitigation, especially in nonhousehold exposure settings. However, the effect of DPT apps can only be exerted if code generation processes are efficient and exposed contacts are willing to undertake preventive actions. This highlights the need to focus efforts on keeping barriers to efficient code generation as low as possible and promoting not only app adoption but also compliance with the recommended measures upon an EN. Trial registration: International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Number Registry 14990068; https://doi.org/10.1186/ISRCTN14990068. Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; SwissCovid; app; contact tracing; digital proximity tracing; epidemiology; evaluation; exposure; mHealth; mobile app; notification; observational; public health; surveillance; tracking

Heterogenous humoral and cellular immune responses with distinct trajectories post-SARS-CoV-2 infection in a population-based cohort

To better understand the development of SARS-CoV-2-specific immunity over time, a detailed evaluation of humoral and cellular responses is required. Here, we characterize anti-Spike (S) IgA and IgG in a representative population-based cohort of 431 SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals up to 217 days after diagnosis, demonstrating that 85% develop and maintain anti-S responses. In a subsample of 64 participants, we further assess anti-Nucleocapsid (N) IgG, neutralizing antibody activity, and T cell responses to Membrane (M), N, and S proteins. In contrast to S-specific antibody responses, anti-N IgG levels decline substantially over time and neutralizing activity toward Delta and Omicron variants is low to non-existent within just weeks of Wildtype SARS-CoV-2 infection. Virus-specific T cells are detectable in most participants, albeit more variable than antibody responses. Cluster analyses of the co-evolution of antibody and T cell responses within individuals identify five distinct trajectories characterized by specific immune patterns and clinical factors. These findings demonstrate the relevant heterogeneity in humoral and cellular immunity to SARS-CoV-2 while also identifying consistent patterns where antibody and T cell responses may work in a compensatory manner to provide protection

Benefits and Harms of Using Statins to Prevent Cardiovascular Disease

What is the problem and what is known about it so far? We know that people who smoke cigarettes are at risk for a heart attack, stroke, and other diseases of the blood vessels. So are those who have diabetes, an elevated level of cholesterol in the blood, and some other risk factors. It is even possible to predict a person's risk for these diseases by using that person's risk factors. Experts recommend that clinicians prescribe statin medications to prevent these diseases when a person's risk is above a specific level

Benefit-harm balance of fingolimod in patients with MS: A modelling study based on FREEDOMS

BACKGROUND: Fingolimod lowers the number of relapses in multiple sclerosis (MS) patients and slows down disease progression, but causes a broad spectrum of side effects. Our aim was to estimate the benefit-harm balance of fingolimod using individual patient data from FREEDOMS, a randomized controlled trial that compared two different dosages of fingolimod to placebo. METHODS: We modelled the health status of patients over two years on a scale ranging from 0 (worst health or death) to 100 (maximum health). The model considered Expanded Disability Status Scale measurements, relapses and adverse events. We compared the mean health status between arms, and the proportion of trial participants for whom health declined or improved compared to baseline by a predefined minimal important difference of 4.6 or more. RESULTS: The main analysis showed a net benefit for fingolimod 0.5mg compared to placebo, with an average health status difference over two years of 2.7 (95% CI 2.2 to 3.2). Patients on fingolimod 0.5mg were 0.53 (95% CI 0.40-0.72, p<0.001) times less likely to have a relevant decline in health status compared to patients on placebo, corresponding to a number needed to treat of 8 to prevent one relevant decline in health status. All sensitivity analyses favoured fingolimod 0.5mg. CONCLUSION Although fingolimod's net benefit did not reach the clinical relevance on average, the decreased risk for a decline in health over two years may be relevant. This approach could be applied to other MS drugs and provide an objective evidence base for guideline recommendations

Krebs Screening : Voraussetzungen für ein sinnvolles und erfolgreiches Program

Zusammenfassung. Nutzen und Schaden von Krebs-Screening müssen sorgfältig aufgrund von wissenschaftlicher Evidenz beurteilt, in Kontext gesetzt und gegeneinander abgewogen werden. Der Erfolg von Krebs-Screening-Programmen hängt aber von vielen weiteren Faktoren ab, wie von der Teilnahmerate, der Organisation und der Qualität des Programmes. Dieser Artikel erläutert die epidemiologischen Voraussetzungen, damit ein Krebs-Screening sinnvoll sein kann, und wie ein erfolgreiches Screening-Programm gestaltet sein muss. Cancer Screening – Prerequesites for a Successful and Meaningful Screening Program Abstract. Benefits and harms of cancer screening should be carefully assessed based on evidence, put into local context and weighed against each other. The success of cancer screening programs depends on many factors beyond the evidence, such as participation rates, the organization and the quality of the program. This article highlights the epidemiologic prerequisites for a cancer screening and explains how a successful screening program is designed