An indicative assessment of investment opportunities in the African electricity supply sector

In the coming decades, demand for electricity will increase considerably on the African continent. Investment in power generation, transmission and distribution is necessary to meet this demand. In this paper a cost-optimization tool is used to assess investment opportunities under varying scenarios of GDP growth, electricity trade and CO2 taxation. Business as usual fuel price outlooks are assumed, and related assumptions are relatively conservative. The goal is to find if there are economic indications that renewable energy might play a significant role in the expansion of the African electricity system. The results show that there is potential of renewable energy (RE) resources to have a significant share in the generation mix. By 2030, 42% and 55% of the total generation is powered by renewables in the high and low GDP scenarios respectively. Promotion of interregional trade can assist in unlocking RE potential across the continent, such as hydro in Central Africa and wind in East Africa; these regions are projected to be net exporters of electricity. Additionally, generation by off-grid technologies increases over time, reaching 12% of the total generation by 2030 in Sub-Saharan Africa

Energy productivity across developed and developing countries in 10 manufacturing sectors:Patterns of growth and convergence

This paper provides an empirical analysis of energy-productivity convergence across 56 developed and developing countries, in 10 manufacturing sectors, for the period 1971-1995. We find that, except for the non-ferrous metals sector, cross-country differences in absolute energy-productivity levels tend to decline, particularly in the less energy-intensive industries. Testing for the catch-up hypothesis using panel data confirms that in all manufacturing sectors energy-productivity growth is, in general, relatively high in countries that initially lag behind in terms of energy-productivity levels. At the same time, cross-country differences in energy-productivity performance seem to be persistent; convergence is found to be local rather than global, with countries converging to different steady states and several failing to catch up. Finally, we find that country-specific factors, such as energy price and investment ratio, do explain the observed cross-country differences in energy-productivity performance, but only to a very limited extent

Best Practice in Government Use and Development of Long-Term Energy Transition Scenarios

Long-term energy scenarios (LTES) have been serving as an important planning tool by a wide range of institutions. This article focuses on how LTES have been used (and also devised in some cases) in the government sector, and specifically how the new challenges and opportunities brought by the aspiration for the clean energy transition change the way that governments use LTES. The information tends to remain tacit, and a gap exists in understanding the way to enhance LTES use and development at the government level. To address this gap, we draw on the experience from national institutions that are leading the improvement in official energy scenario planning to articulate a set of overarching best practices to (i) strengthen LTES development, (ii) effectively use LTES for strategic energy planning and (iii) enhance institutional capacity for LTES-based energy planning, all in the context of new challenges associated with the clean energy transition. We present implementation experience collected through the International Renewable Agency’s LTES Network activities to exemplify these best practices. We highlight that in the context of the broad and complex challenges of a clean energy transition driven by ambitious climate targets, the LTES-based energy planning methodologies need to evolve, reflecting the changing landscapes, and that more effective and extensive use of LTES in government needs to be further encouraged

Planning the European power sector transformation: the REmap modelling framework and its insights

IRENA's renewable energy roadmap (REmap) programme enables the assessment of the renewable energy potential at sector and country level for the year 2030 based on a unique methodology that has been applied to 70 countries. This paper presents findings of REmap for the European power sector where the REmap methodology is complemented with a power system dispatch model, called the REpower Europe model. Results show that in 2030 under REmap, gross electricity demand in the EU-28 can be met with a renewable energy share of 50% and a variable renewable energy (VRE) share of 29%. This would achieve a 43% reduction in the EU power sector's carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions relative to 2005 levels. Although achieving higher renewable electricity shares by 2030 is effective in reducing emissions, significant operational challenges would be encountered to realise the potential identified in REmap. Attention needs to be paid to interconnector congestion, curtailment of VRE and operation of dispatchable generators by power system planners to achieve this potential. While the strength of the REmap approach is transparency that allows engagement with energy planning stakeholders, the key to its effective application is the right balance of model complexity and operational ease. This paper shows the insights that can be gained by leveraging the approach and that valuable policy insights are drawn by using a suite of modelling approaches