Ścieżki transformacji polskiej energetyki

W artykule omówiono cztery ścieżki transformacji krajowego systemu elektroenergetycznego prowadzące do obniżenia emisji CO2 do poziomu 10 mln ton w 2050 r., zróżnicowane pod względem roli, jaką odgrywają w nich wybrane technologie energetyczne. Zostały one opracowane za pomocą modeli TIMES-PL oraz MEDUSA, w których optymalizowano rozwój krajowego systemu elektroenergetycznego pod kątem najniższych kosztów osiągnięcia celu dekarbonizacji. Z przedstawionych w artykule badań wynika, że zapewnienie ciągłości dostaw energii, która w przyszłości będzie wytwarzana przede wszystkim ze źródeł odnawialnych, wymaga znaczącego udziału źródeł sterowalnych (jądrowych lub klasycznych, wyposażonych w systemy sekwestracji dwutlenku węgla) oraz magazynów energii

Loss of Life Expectancy related to temporal evolution of PM2.5 considered within energy scenarios in Europe

International audiencePeople exposure to particulate matter can have various health effects as described in scientific publications in the area of observational epidemiology. This study estimates the Loss of Life Expectancy (LLE) related to PM2.5 concentrations corresponding to a selected baseline energy scenario derived from the GAINS model. Most often energy scenarios are defined as consistent pathways towards a long-term target defined by a set of criteria that describe a sustainable energy supply. This study accounts for the temporal evolution of PM2.5 concentrations along the time frame from 2005 till 2050. The analysis was carried out for 43 European countries with a spatial resolution of 50 x 50 km. LLE was considered over the whole life time of the population older than 30 years in year 2005. We propose an algorithm for the computation of LLE for population exposed to PM2.5 based on the approach recommended by the Task Force on Health described in IIASA's Report and accounting for the Pope exposure-risk parameter. The LLE computation is based on the difference between the life expectancy with no exposure to particulates and life expectancy with exposure to observed particulates. We considered in our algorithm the temporal evolutions of PM2.5 concentrations along the scenario, as well as population densities. LLE results were derived using different PM2.5 concentration profiles from 2005 to 2050. The first PM2.5 concentration profile corresponds to a constant PM2.5 concentration with values fixed to the 2005 situation. The second PM2.5 concentration profile corresponds to the temporal evolution of the selected energy scenario. LLE is then derived for both situations: the fixed PM2.5 concentrations case and the variable PM2.5 case as defined for the baseline scenario. LLE results are significantly different between the two cases with a decrease by half for most European countries. The Netherlands and Eastern Europe are the only regions where LLE exceed 300 days/person of life lost. Applying this new feature of temporal evolution of PM2.5 is of interest for assessing the potential impacts of scenarios accounting for the possible technical evolution of energy pathways. Results are provided on line in numerical form as well as in form of LLE maps

Human health impacts for Renewable Energy scenarios from the EnerGEO Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA)

International audienceThis article reports impact results from running the EnerGEO Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA) related to human health for different scenarios in Europe. The scenarios were prepared within the EnerGEO project. The idea of this European project is to determine how low carbon scenarios, and in particular scenarios with a high share of renewable energy, affect concentrations of air pollutants and as a consequence affect human health. PM2.5 concentrations were estimated with the IIASA Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model on a time horizon up to the year 2050 for different scenarios. We analyse here the estimation of the Loss of Life Expectancy due to PM2.5 concentrations for the Baseline scenario taken as a reference and the Maximum renewable power scenario

Estimating particulate matter health impact related to the combustion of different fossil fuels

International audienceExposure to particulate matter (PM) in ambient air leads to adverse health effects. To design cost effective mitigation strategies, a thorough understanding of the sources of particulate matter is crucial. We have successfully generated a web map service that allows to access information on fuel dependent health effects due to particulate matter. For this purpose, the LOTOS-EUROS air pollution model was equipped with a source apportionment module that tracks the origin of the modelled particulate matter distributions throughout a simulation. Combined with a dedicated emission inventory PM2.5 maps specified by fuel type were generated for 2007-2009. These maps were combined with a health impact calculation to estimate Lost of Life Expectancy for each fuel categories. An user friendly web client was generated to access the results and use the web mapping service in an easy manner

The EnerGEO Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA): environmental assessment of scenarios as a web service

International audienceWith the International Energy Agency estimating that global energy demand will increase between 40 and 50 percent by 2030 (compared to 2003), scientists and policymakers are concerned about the sustainability of the current energy system and what environmental pressures might result from the development of future energy systems. EnerGEO is an ongoing FP7 Project (2009-2013) which assesses the current and future impact of energy use on the environment by linking environmental observation systems with the processes involved in exploiting energy resources. The idea of this European project is to determine how low carbon scenarios, and in particular scenarios with a high share of renewable electricity, affect emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases (GHG) and contribute to mitigation of negative energy system impacts on human health and ecosystems. A Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA) has been elaborated to provide impact results for a selection of scenarios via a set of models (large-scale energy models, Life Cycle Assessment models, ...). This PIA is currently available through a web service. The concept of the PIA is detailed and to illustrate its interest, a set of results is given with the use of the simulation mode of the European version of GAINS for a selection of scenarios

Analysis of the Potential for Reducing Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Motor Fuels

The assessment of life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of motor fuels is important due to the legal obligations and corporate social responsibility of the petroleum industry. Combining the Life-Cycle Assessment with optimization methods can provide valuable support in the decision-making process. In this paper, a mathematical model of a refinery was developed to analyze the impact of process optimization on GHG emissions at the fuel production stage. The model included ten major refinery units. Fuel production costs were minimized by taking into account the number of constraints. The analysis was performed in two steps. First, the model was run for the reference case of fuels composition. Then, more than twelve thousand model runs were performed. In each model, the fuel composition was changed. This change represented the exogenous pressures and resulted in different flows of mass, energy and GHG emission at the refinery. The most favorable results in terms of GHG emissions were then identified and analyzed. Additionally, the impact of using low-carbon fuels for process heating was evaluated. The study showed that fuel blending management could lead to the reduction of GHG emissions by 0.4 gCO2-eq/MJ while the use of low-carbon fuel for process heating results in a reduction of GHG emissions by 2 ca. gCO2-eq/MJ

Factors affecting the transition of the Polish power system

Energy systems face radical –almost revolutionary changes which, however, will be stretched over the long period. The critical factors influencing the future development of the Polish power sector are discussed in this paper. Development of intermittent energy supplies from renewable energy sources imposes a challenge on the entire power system and requires specific adaptations and responses from traditional generation units. Up to the present time they have been used to work in the stable mode while now they need more operational flexibility. The share of RES constantly increases. On one hand, this has a very positive environmental impact, but on the other it disturbs economics of classical generation units. Also liberalized electricity markets are impacted and the risks in power investments have increased. The capacity market could constitute a remedy, which will incentivise the investments necessary to fill the gap created by closing exhausted and inefficient plants. On the consumer side electromobility could change the demand, not only in quantity but also in terms of load profile. Climate policy tends to detriment coal based generation. For countries abundant in coal resources which make use of this cheap fuel, such as Poland, the question arises about its future role. Even in the most coal-supportive scenarios revised in this paper its relative share in electricity generation does not exceed 50% in 2050 while in others it rather goes much below 30%.

Prospects for the use of SMR and IGCC technologies for power generation in Poland

This study is a preliminary assessment of prospects for new power generation technologies that are of particular interest in Poland. We analysed the economic competitiveness of small size integrated gasification combined cycle units (IGCC) and small modular reactors (SMR). For comparison we used one of the most widely applied and universal metric i.e. Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE). The LCOE results were complemented with the results of energy-economic model TIMES-PL in order to analyse the economic viability of these technologies under operation regime of the entire power system. The results show that with techno-economic assumptions presented in the paper SMRs are more competitive option as compared to small IGCC units

Prospects for the use of SMR and IGCC technologies for power generation in Poland

This study is a preliminary assessment of prospects for new power generation technologies that are of particular interest in Poland. We analysed the economic competitiveness of small size integrated gasification combined cycle units (IGCC) and small modular reactors (SMR). For comparison we used one of the most widely applied and universal metric i.e. Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE). The LCOE results were complemented with the results of energy-economic model TIMES-PL in order to analyse the economic viability of these technologies under operation regime of the entire power system. The results show that with techno-economic assumptions presented in the paper SMRs are more competitive option as compared to small IGCC units

Mapping Urban Heat Demand with the Use of GIS-Based Tools

This article presents a bottom-up approach for calculation of the useful heat demand for space heating and hot water preparation using geo-referenced datasets for buildings at the city level. This geographic information system (GIS) based approach was applied in the case study for the city of Krakow, where on the one hand the district heat network is well developed, while on the other hand there are still substantial number of buildings burning solid fuels in individual boilers and stoves, causing air pollution. The calculated heat demand was aggregated in the grid with 100 m × 100 m spatial resolution to deliver the heat map depicting the current situation for 21 buildings types. The results show that the residential buildings, in particular one- and multi-family buildings, have the highest share in overall demand for heat. By combining the results with location of the district heat (DH) network, the potential areas in its close vicinity that have sufficient heat demand density for developing the net were pointed out. Future evolution in heat demand for space heating in one-family houses was evaluated with the use of deterministic method employing building stock model. The study lays a foundation for planning the development of the heating system at the city level