Reflections on the Optimal Currency Area (oca) Criteria in the Light of EMU

The objective of this paper is first to review the use that has been made of Optimal Currency Area (OCA) theory in the European Monetary Union (EMU) context. Second, to look at some of its predictions in that respect. And third, to appraise some of the new theories - or speculations - that have arisen, partly as a result of the confrontation of the theory with the data. This is an area in which politics are very important; they play an important role in the reception and interpretation of positive work. Tentative ideas and speculative hypotheses acquire the aura of accomplished fact, whilst a single empirical illustration can be given the status of a many-times confirmed demonstration. This paper tries to be more careful in these remarks. Whilst history offers some instructive lessons, as illustrated for example in the work of Bordo and Jonung (1999), the fact is that in most relevant respects EMU represents an unparalleled experiment, with corresponding difficulties for empirical work.

Why do forecasts differ

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The linkage of interest rates within the EMU

This paper is produced as part of a research project on 'Asset Market, Structural Convergence and European Monetary Policy' administred by the CEPR and supported by the Leverhulme Trust (no. F/558/C). Financial support by the Foreign and Commonwealth OfficeConsiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche - Biblioteca Centrale -. P.le Aldo Moro, 7, Rome / CNR - Consiglio Nazionale delle RichercheSIGLEITItal

Business cycles, exchange rate regimes and the ERM: is there a European business cycle?

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Stage two Feasible transitions to EMU

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Counter-inflationary policy in the framework of EMS

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Monetary policy in Stage Two of EMU What can we learn from the 1980s?

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