Incorporating single-arm evidence into a network meta-analysis using aggregate level matching: assessing the impact

Increasingly, single-armed evidence is included in health technology assessment submissions when companies are seeking reimbursement for new drugs. While it is recognized that randomized controlled trials provide a higher standard of evidence, these are not available for many new agents that have been granted licenses in recent years. Therefore, it is important to examine whether alternative strategies for assessing this evidence may be used. In this work, we examine approaches to incorporating single-armed evidence formally in the evaluation process. We consider matching aggregate level covariates to comparator arms or trials and including this evidence in a network meta-analysis. We consider two methods of matching: (i) we include the chosen matched arm in the data set itself as a comparator for the single-arm trial; (ii) we use the baseline odds of an event in a chosen matched trial to use as a plug-in estimator for the single-arm trial. We illustrate that the synthesis of evidence resulting from such a setup is sensitive to the between-study variability, formulation of the prior for the between-design effect, weight given to the single-arm evidence, and extent of the bias in single-armed evidence. We provide a flowchart for the process involved in such a synthesis and highlight additional sensitivity analyses that should be carried out. This work was motivated by a hepatitis C data set, where many agents have only been examined in single-arm studies. We present the results of our methods applied to this data set

A comparison of relative-efficacy estimate(s) derived from both matching-adjusted indirect comparisons and standard anchored indirect treatment comparisons

ObjectivesWe present an empirical comparison of relative-efficacy estimate(s) from matching-adjusted indirect comparisons (MAICs) with estimates from corresponding standard anchored indirect treatment comparisons.MethodsA total of 80 comparisons were identified from 17 publications through a systematic rapid review. A standardized metric that used reported relative treatment efficacy estimates and their associated uncertainty was used to compare the methods across different treatment indications and outcome measures.ResultsOn aggregate, MAICs presented for connected networks tended to report a more favorable relative-efficacy estimate for the treatment for which individual-level patient data were available relative to the reported indirect treatment comparison estimate.ConclusionsAlthough we recognize the importance of MAIC and other population adjustment methods in certain situations, we recommend that results from these analyses are interpreted with caution. Researchers and analysts should carefully consider if MAICs are appropriate where presented and whether MAICs would have added value where omitted.</p

A cohort study to investigate sex‑specific differences in ANCA‑associated glomerulonephritis outcomes

Data surrounding sex-specific differences in ANCA-associated vasculitis glomerulonephritis (ANCA-GN) outcomes is sparse. We hypothesised that the previously observed increased risk of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) in males is driven by sex-specific variation in immunosuppression dosing. Patients were recruited to the Irish Rare Kidney Disease Registry or followed by the Royal Free Hospital vasculitis team (2012–2020). Inclusion criteria: prior diagnosis of ANCA-GN (biopsy proven pauci-immune glomerulonephritis) and positive serology for anti-MPO or -PR3 antibodies. Renal and patient survival, stratified by sex and Berden histological class, was analysed. The cumulative- and starting dose/kilogram of induction agents and prednisolone, respectively, was compared between sexes. 332 patients were included. Median follow-up was time 40.2 months (IQR 17.3–69.2). 73 (22%) reached ESKD and 47 (14.2%) died. Overall 1- and 5-year renal survival was 82.2% and 76.7% in males and 87.1% and 82.0% in females, respectively (p 0.13). The hazard ratio for ESKD in males versus females, after adjustment for age, ANCA serology, baseline creatinine and histological class was 1.07 (95% CI 0.59–1.93). There was no difference between sexes in the dose/kilogram of any induction agent. We did not observe a strong impact of sex on renal outcome in ANCA-GN. Treatment intensity does not vary by sex

Investigation of type I interferon responses in ANCA‑associated vasculitis

Type I interferon (IFN) dysregulation is a major contributory factor in the development of several autoimmune diseases, termed type I interferonopathies, and is thought to be the pathogenic link with chronic infammation in these conditions. Anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA)-Associated Vasculitis (AAV) is an autoimmune disease characterised by necrotising infammation of small blood vessels. The underlying biology of AAV is not well understood, however several studies have noted abnormalities in type I IFN responses. We hypothesised that type I IFN responses are systemically dysregulated in AAV, consistent with features of a type I interferonopathy. To investigate this, we measured the expression of seven interferon regulated genes (IRGs) (ISG15, SIGLEC1, STAT1, RSAD2, IFI27, IFI44L and IFIT1) in peripheral blood samples, as well as three type I IFN regulated proteins (CXCL10, MCP-1 and CCL19) in serum samples from AAV patients, healthy controls and disease controls. We found no difference in type I IFN regulated gene or protein expression between AAV patients and healthy controls. Furthermore, IRG and IFN regulated protein expression did not correlate with clinical measurements of disease activity in AAV patients. Thus, we conclude that systemic type I IFN responses are not key drivers of AAV pathogenesis and AAV should not be considered a type I interferonopathy