7 research outputs found

    The Contractionary Short‐Run Effects of Nominal Devaluation in Developing Countries: Some Neglected Nuances

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    Abstract This article extends the model developed by Krugman and Taylor (1978) to take into account interesting features of the evolving structure of global trade. The growing presence of transnational production chains and differential pricing behaviour of exports destined for industrial and developing countries are accommodated. Individual country and panel data pass‐through estimates derived from several econometric approaches are provided to justify the latter extension. The likelihood of contractionary short‐run effects of devaluations is shown to be positively related to: 1) the proportion of a country’s exports destined for other developing countries; and 2) the presence of transnational corporations (TNCs) in either the export or home goods‐producing sector. Unlike the Krugman‐Taylor case, devaluation will generally have a contractionary impact even if: 1) trade is initially balanced; 2) consumption behaviour does not differ between wage and profit earners; and 3) the government sector has a high marginal propensity to consume in the short run. The resulting policy implications underline the need to take into account these increasingly important nuances of international trade while designing exchange rate policies for developing countries.Differential pass‐through elasticities, contractionary devaluations, transnational corporations, error correction models, autoregressive distributed lag models, structuralist models, F14, F41, F23, O24,

    Can the HOSS framework help shed light on the simultaneous growth of inequality and informalization in developing countries?

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    Heckscher–Ohlin–Stolper–Samuelson theory, Skill premium, Informalization, International production networks, Elasticity of factor substitution, Wage rigidity, F16, O17, F11,

    Developing Country Exports of Manufactures: Moving Up the Ladder to Escape the Fallacy of Composition?

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    This paper tests for a 'fallacy of composition' by analysing the demand for exports of the 18 developing countries that are most specialised in manufactures in the markets of the 10 largest industrial countries. Estimated export equations (both time-series and panel data) suggest that most developing countries compete with other developing country exporters rather than with industrialised country producers. A smaller number of countries that export more high-technology products compete with industrialised country producers and also have higher expenditure elasticities for their exports. Thus, the fallacy of composition applies mainly to the larger group of countries exporting mostly low-technology products.
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