Epicardial Fat Volume, Cardiac Function, and Incident Heart Failure: The Rotterdam Study

BACKGROUND: Larger epicardial fat volume (EFV) has been associated with increased risks of cardiovascular disease and atrial fibrillation. Yet, evidence on the association of EFV with cardiac function and incident heart failure (HF) remains scarce. METHODS AND RESULTS: We included 2103 participants (mean age, 68 years; 54.4% women) from the prospective population-based RS (Rotterdam Study) with computed tomography– based EFV and repeated echocardiography-based assessment of left ventricular (LV) systolic and diastolic function. Linear mixed effects and Cox-proportional hazard regression models, adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors, were used to assess the associations of EFV with repeated measurements of echo-cardiographic parameters and with incident HF. During a median follow-up of 9.7 years, 124 HF events occurred (incidence rate, 6.37 per 1000 person-years). For LV systolic function, 1-SD larger EFV was associated with 0.76 (95% CI, 0.54– 0.98) mm larger LV end-diastolic dimension, 0.66 (95% CI, 0.47– 0.85) mm larger LV end-systolic dimension, and 0.56% (95% CI, −0.86% to −0.27%) lower LV ejection fraction. Interactions between EFV and time were small. For LV diastolic function, 1-SD larger EFV was associated with 1.02 (95% CI, 0.78–1.27) mm larger left atrial diameter. Larger EFV was also associated with incident HF (hazard ratio per 1-SD increase in EFV, 1.34 [95% CI, 1.07–1.68] per 1-SD larger EFV). CONCLUSIONS: We report an independent association between EFV with new-onset HF in the general population. EFV seems to exert its influence on HF through different pathways contributing to deteriorations in systolic function and larger left atrial size in part, likely through mechanical restraint and hypertrophy

What proportion of clinical prediction models make it to clinical practice? Protocol for a two-track follow-up study of prediction model development publications

Introduction It is known that only a limited proportion of developed clinical prediction models (CPMs) are implemented and/or used in clinical practice. This may result in a large amount of research waste, even when considering that some CPMs may demonstrate poor performance. Cross-sectional estimates of the numbers of CPMs that have been developed, validated, evaluated for impact or utilized in practice, have been made in specific medical fields, but studies across multiple fields and studies following up the fate of CPMs are lacking. Methods and analysis We have conducted a systematic search for prediction model studies published between January 1995 and December 2020 using the Pubmed and Embase databases, applying a validated search strategy. Taking random samples for every calendar year, abstracts and articles were screened until a target of 100 CPM development studies were identified. Next, we will perform a forward citation search of the resulting CPM development article cohort to identify articles on external validation, impact assessment or implementation of those CPMs. We will also invite the authors of the development studies to complete an online survey to track implementation and clinical utilization of the CPMs. We will conduct a descriptive synthesis of the included studies, using data from the forward citation search and online survey to quantify the proportion of developed models that are validated, assessed for their impact, implemented and/or used in patient care. We will conduct time-to-event analysis using Kaplan-Meier plots. Ethics and dissemination No patient data are involved in the research. Most information will be extracted from published articles. We request written informed consent from the survey respondents. Results will be disseminated through publication in a peer-reviewed journal and presented at international conferences. OSF registration (https://osf.io/nj8s9)

Sex-specific normal values and determinants of infrarenal abdominal aortic diameter among non-aneurysmal elderly population

To establish age- and sex-specific distribution of the infrarenal abdominal aortic diameters (IAD) among non-aneurysmal elderly population and to investigate the associations between traditional cardiovascular risk factors and IAD in men and women. We included 4032 participants (mean age 67.2 years; 60.4% women) from the population-based Rotterdam Study, free of cardiovascular disease, who underwent IAD ultrasound assessment between 2009–2014. Linear regression analysis was used to identify determinants of IAD. The medians (inter-quartile range) of absolute IAD and body surface area (BSA)-adjusted IAD were 17.0 (15.0–18.0) mm and 9.3 (8.5–10.2) mm for women and 19.0 (18.0–21.0) mm and 9.4 (8.6–10.3) mm for men, respectively. There was a non-linear relationship between age and IAD. IAD increased steeply with advancing age and up to 70 years. After around 75 years of age, the diameter values reached a plateau. Waist circumference and diastolic blood pressure were associated with larger diameters in both sexes. Body mass index [Effect estimate (95% CI): 0.04 (0.00 to 0.08)], systolic blood pressure [− 0.01(− 0.02 to 0.00)], current smoking [0.35 (0.06 to 0.65)], total cholesterol levels [− 0.21 (− 0.31 to − 0.11)], and lipid-lowering medication [− 0.43 (− 0.67 to − 0.19)] were significantly associated with IAD in women. Sex differences in IAD values diminished after taking BSA into account. The increase in diameters was attenuated after 70 years. Differences were observed in the associations of several cardiovascular risk factors with IAD among men and women

Preventive implantable cardioverter defibrillator therapy in contemporary clinical practice

While the efficacy of the intracardiac defibrillators (ICDs) for primary prevention is not disputed, the relevant studies were carried out a long time ago. Most pertinent trials, including MADIT-II, SCD-Heft, and DEFINITE, recruited patients more than 20 years ago. Since then, improved therapeutic modalities including, in addition to cardiac resynchronization therapy, mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists, angiotensin receptor-neprilysin inhibitors, and, most recently, inhibitors of sodium-glucose cotransporter 2, have lowered present-day rates of mortality and of sudden cardiac death. Thus, nowadays, ICD therapy may be less effective than previously reported, and not as beneficial as many people currently believe. However, criteria for ICD im

Sex-specific normal values and determinants of infrarenal abdominal aortic diameter among non-aneurysmal elderly population

To establish age- and sex-specific distribution of the infrarenal abdominal aortic diameters (IAD) among non-aneurysmal elderly population and to investigate the associations between traditional cardiovascular risk factors and IAD in men and women. We included 4032 participants (mean age 67.2 years; 60.4% women) from the population-based Rotterdam Study, free of cardiovascular disease, who underwent IAD ultrasound assessment between 2009–2014. Linear regression analysis was used to identify determinants of IAD. The medians (inter-quartile range) of absolute IAD and body surface area (BSA)-adjusted IAD were 1

Implications of the ACC/AHA risk score for prediction of heart failure: the Rotterdam Study

Background: Despite the growing burden of heart failure (HF), there have been no recommendations for use of any of the primary prevention models in the existing guidelines. HF was also not included as an outcome in the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) risk score. Methods: Among 2743 men and 3646 women aged ≥ 55 years, free of HF, from the population-based Rotterdam Study cohort, 4 Cox models were fitted using the predictors of the ACC/AHA, ARIC and Health-ABC risk scores. Performance of the models for 10-year HF prediction was evaluated. Afterwards, performance and net reclassification improvement (NRI) for adding NT-proBNP to the ACC/AHA model were assessed. Results: During a median follow-up of 13 years, 429 men and 489 women developed HF. The ARIC model had the highest performance [c-statistic (95% confidence interval [CI]): 0.80 (0.78; 0.83) and 0.80 (0.78; 0.83) in men and women, respectively]. The c-statistic for the ACC/AHA model was 0.76 (0.74; 0.78) in men and 0.77 (0.75; 0.80) in women. Adding NT-proBNP to the ACC/AHA model increased the c-statistic to 0.80 (0.78 to 0.83) in men and 0.81 (0.79 to 0.84) in women. Sensitivity and specificity of the ACC/AHA model did not drastically change after addition of NT-proBNP. NRI(95%CI) was − 23.8% (− 19.2%; − 28.4%) in men and − 27.6% (− 30.7%; − 24.5%) in women for events and 57.9% (54.8%; 61.0%) in men and 52.8% (50.3%; 55.5%) in women for non-events. Conclusions: Acceptable performance of the model based on risk factors included in the ACC/AHA model advocates use of this model for prediction of HF risk in primary prevention setting. Addition of NT-proBNP modestly improved the model performance but did not lead to relevant discrimination improvement in clinical risk reclassification