Estimation of Multinomial Logit Models with Unobserved Heterogeneity Using Maximum Simulated Likelihood

In this paper we suggest a Stata routine for multinomial logit models with unobserved heterogeneity using maximum simulated likelihood based on Halton sequences. The purpose of this paper is twofold: First, we provide a description of the technical implementation of the estimation routine and discuss its properties. Further, we compare our estimation routine to the Stata program gllamm which solves integration using Gauss Hermite quadrature or Bayesian adaptive quadrature. For the analysis we draw on multilevel data about schooling. Our empirical findings show that the estimation techniques lead to approximately the same estimation results. The advantage of simulation over Gauss Hermite quadrature is a marked reduction in computational time for integrals with higher dimensions. Bayesian quadrature, however, leads to very stable results with only a few quadrature points, thus the computational advantage of Halton based simulation vanishes in our example with one and two dimensional integrals.multinomial logit model, panel data, unobserved heterogeneity, maximum simulated likelihood, Halton sequences

Self-Employment Dynamics, State Dependence and Cross-Mobility Patterns

This paper analyzes the mobility between self-employment, wage employment and non-employment. Using data for men in West Germany, we find strong true state dependence in all three states. Moreover, compared to wage employment, non-employment increases the probability of self-employment significantly, and self-employment goes along with a higher risk of future non-employment.self-employment, state dependence, labor market dynamics, unemployment

From no pay to low pay and back again? A multi-state model of low pay dynamics

This study analyzes the mobility between three labor market states: working in low paid jobs, working in higher paid jobs and not working. Using German panel data I estimate dynamic multinomial logit panel data models with random effects taking the initial conditions problem and potential endogeneity of panel attrition into account. In line with results from other countries, this first study on Germany finds true state dependence in low pay jobs and confirms previous results of state dependence in non-employment. Moreover, I find evidence for a low pay no pay cycle, i.e. being low paid or not employed itself increases the probability of being in one of these states in the next year. However, compared to non working, being low paid does not have adverse effects on future employment prospects: the employment probability increases with low pay employment and the probability of being high paid seems to be higher for previously low paid workers. I find no evidence for endogenous panel attrition

Self-Employment Dynamics, State Dependence and Cross-Mobility Patterns

This paper analyzes the mobility between self-employment, wage employment and non-employment. Using data for men in West Germany, we find strong true state dependence in all three states. Moreover, compared to wage employment, non-employment increases the probability of self-employment significantly, and selfemployment goes along with a higher risk of future non-employment.Self-Employment, State Dependence, Labor Market Dynamics, Unemployment

From No Pay to Low Pay and Back Again? A Multi-State Model of Low Pay Dynamics

This study analyzes the mobility between three labor market states: working in low paid jobs, working in higher paid jobs and not working. Using German panel data I estimate dynamic multinomial logit panel data models with random effects taking the initial conditions problem and potential endogeneity of panel attrition into account. In line with results from other countries, this first study on Germany finds true state dependence in low pay jobs and confirms previous results of state dependence in non-employment. Moreover, I find evidence for a \low pay no pay cycle", i.e. being low paid or not employed itself increases the probability of being in one of these states in the next year. However, compared to non working, being low paid does not have adverse effects on future employment prospects: the employment probability increases with low pay employment and the probability of being high paid seems to be higher for previously low paid workers. I find no evidence for endogenous panel attrition

Unemployment Dynamics among Migrants and Natives

Unemployment rates are often higher for migrants than for natives. This could result from longer periods of unemployment as well as from shorter periods of employment. This paper jointly examines male native-migrant differences in the duration of unemployment and subsequent employment using German panel data and bivariate discrete time hazard rate models. Compared to natives with the same observable and unobservable characteristics, unemployed migrants do not find less stable positions but they need more time to find these jobs. The probability of leaving unemployment also varies strongly between ethnicities, while first and second generation Turks are identified as the major problem group. Therefore, policy should concentrate on the job finding process of Turkish migrants to fight their disadvantages on the labor market.Unemployment duration, employment stability, bivariate hazard rate models, migration, ethnicity

Der Einfluss von Persönlichkeitseigenschaften und sozialen Ressourcen auf die Arbeitslosigkeitsdauer

The influence of human capital, the local unemployment rate, the family situation, personal characteristics and the social resources on the individual length of unemployment in Germany are analysed with data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP). Because of interactions of some covariables with time, an unproportional Cox-regression is estimated. This analysis confirms the results of previous studies, and the consideration of personal characteristics and social resources leads to new additional findings. In West-Germany mobile persons and actors with internal control find a job more easily while in East-Germany social capital has a positive influence on the probability of reemployment. Untersucht wird der Einfluss des Humankapitals, der Arbeitsmarktlage, der familiären Situation sowie der Persönlichkeitseigenschaften und sozialen Ressourcen auf die individuelle Arbeitslosigkeitsdauer anhand des Sozioökonomischen Panels (SOEP) in West- und Ostdeutschland. Es wird eine unproportionale Cox-Regression mit Interaktionseffekten ausgewählter Prädiktoren mit der Zeit geschätzt. Die Ergebnisse vergleichbarer Analysen werden bestätigt und es zeigt sich, dass die Berücksichtigung der üblicherweise vernachlässigten Persönlichkeitseigenschaften und sozialen Ressourcen neue Erkenntnisse liefert. In Westdeutschland finden mobile und internal kontrollierte Arbeitslose schneller eine neue Beschäftigung, während in Ostdeutschland soziales Kapital positive Auswirkungen auf die Beschäftigungswahrscheinlichkeit hat.

Employment Effects of Welfare Reforms: Evidence from a Dynamic Structural Life-Cycle Model

In this paper we develop a dynamic structural life-cycle model of labor supply behavior which fully accounts for the effects of income tax and transfers on labor supply incentives. Additionally, the model recognizes the demand side driven rationing risk that might prevent individuals from realizing their optimal labor supply state, resulting in involuntary unemployment. We use this framework to study the employment effects of transforming a traditional welfare state, as is currently in place in Germany, towards a more Anglo-American system in which a large proportion of transfers are paid to the working poor.Life-cycle labor supply, Involuntary unemployment, In-work credits

Too Bad to Benefit?: Effect Heterogeneity of Public Training Programs

This study analyzes the treatment effects of public training programs for the unemployed in Germany. Based on propensity score matching methods we extend the picture that has been sketched in previous studies by estimating treatment effects of medium-term programs for different sub-groups with respect to vocational education and age. Our results indicate that program participation has a positive impact on employment probabilities for all sub-groups. Participants also seem to find more often higher paid jobs than non-participants. However, we find only little evidence for the presence of heterogeneous treatment effects, and the magnitude of the differences is quite small. Our results are thus - at least in part - conflicting with the strategy to increasingly provide training to individuals with better employment prospects.Program Evaluation, Active Labor Market Policy, Effect Heterogeneity, Public Training Programs, Matching

Social Networks, Job Search Methods and Reservation Wages: Evidence for Germany

In this paper we analyze the relationship between social networks and the job search behavior of unemployed individuals. It is believed that networks convey useful information in the job search process such that individuals with larger networks should experience a higher productivity of informal search. Hence, job search theory suggests that individuals with larger networks use informal search channels more often and substitute from formal to informal search. Due to the increase in search productivity, it is also likely that individuals set higher reservation wages. We analyze these relations using a novel data set of unemployed individuals in Germany containing extensive information on job search behavior and direct measures for the social network of individuals. Our findings confirm theoretical expectations. Individuals with larger networks use informal search channels more often and shift from formal to informal search. We find that informal search is mainly considered a substitute for passive, less cost intensive search channels. In addition to that, we find evidence for a positive relationship between the network size and reservation wages.job search behavior, unemployment, social networks