Making structured decisions for reintroduced populations in the face of uncertainty

Structured decision‐making (SDM) has become popular in natural resource management but has been underused in reintroduction programs. We illustrate how conservation managers can use SDM to guide management decisions after initial reintroduction, when data are still limited and uncertainty around vital rates estimates is high. In 2013, the hihi (Notiomystis cincta), an endangered New Zealand forest bird, was reintroduced to Bushy Park (BP), a managed conservation reserve. High post‐release mortality in females led to the population remaining small after 2 years, raising the question of whether more females should be released. We built a model to evaluate three management alternatives, including no further translocation and translocations of 15 additional females (from the only possible source population) in either 2015 or 2016. The fundamental objectives identified were to maximize the number and persistence of female hihi in BP, minimize the impact on the source population, and minimize costs. Our decision analysis incorporated uncertainties in parameter estimation, model selection, and demographic stochasticity. It produced distributions of final scores for each management alternative based on population projections for both the BP population and source population, and objective weights assigned by stakeholders. Although the distributions of final scores overlapped greatly, the “no translocation” alternative was largely stochastically dominant over other management options, that is, it was clearly the best choice in most projections and the choice was ambiguous in the remaining projections. The decision was also unaffected by variation in stakeholder values. Although the underlying modeling was complex, the output provided a simple visualization of outcomes that allowed the recovery group to make an informed decision (no further translocation) that fully considered the uncertainties

Effect of supplementary feeding on reproductive success of hihi (stitchbird, Notiomystis cincta) at a mature forest reintroduction site

Supplementary feeding has proven to be a successful conservation tool for many species, including New Zealand’s hihi (stitchbird, Notiomystis cincta). Previous research has shown supplementary feeding to substantially increase hihi reproductive success at regenerating forest sites, but suggested that it would have reduced benefit in mature forest habitat. Here we report the first direct test of the effect of supplementary feeding on hihi reproductive success in mature forest, using data from the recently reintroduced population at Maungatautari Ecological Island. Eight feeder-using females and nine non-feeder-using females were monitored during the 2012/13 breeding season at Maungatautari to determine how feeder use affected reproductive success (nest success, number of first-clutch fledglings per female and total number of fledglings per female). Feeder-using females fledged 3.7 times as many fledglings as non-feeder-using females in their first-clutch attempts (95% CI 1.6–8.8), and 1.8 times as many fledglings in total (95% CI 1.0–3.5). No feeder-using female experienced nest failure, whereas 7 of the 16 nest attempts of non-feeder-using females failed to fledge any young. The results suggest that, counter to expectations, supplementary feeder use has a significant impact on reproductive success in mature forest habitat. At least for Maungatautari, providing supplementary food in mature forest habitat appears to greatly reduce the probability of hihi nest failure, and increases the number of young a female can fledge

Impaired interferon-γ responses, increased interleukin-17 expression, and a tumor necrosis factor–α transcriptional program in invasive aspergillosis

This article is available open access through the publisher’s website. Copyright @ 2009 Oxford University Press.Background - Invasive aspergillosis (IA) is the most common cause of death associated with fungal infection in the developed world. Historically, susceptibility to IA has been associated with prolonged neutropenia; however, IA has now become a major problem in patients on calcineurin inhibitors and allogenic hematopoetic stem cell transplant patients following engraftment. These observations suggest complex cellular mechanisms govern immunity to IA. Methods - To characterize the key early events that govern outcome from infection with Aspergillus fumigatus we performed a comparative immunochip microarray analysis of the pulmonary transcriptional response to IA between cyclophosphamide-treated mice and immunocompetent mice at 24 h after infection. Results - We demonstrate that death due to infection is associated with a failure to generate an incremental interferon-γ response, increased levels of interleukin-5 and interleukin-17a transcript, coordinated expression of a network of tumor necrosis factor–α-related genes, and increased levels of tumor necrosis factor–α. In contrast, clearance of infection is associated with increased expression of a number genes encoding proteins involved in innate pathogen clearance, as well as apoptosis and control of inflammation. Conclusion - This first organ-level immune response transcriptional analysis for IA has enabled us to gain new insights into the mechanisms that govern fungal immunity in the lung.The BBSRC, CGD Research Trust, and the MRC

Behaviour in the hand predicts male natal dispersal distances in an establishing reintroduced hihi (Notiomystis cincta) population

Natal dispersal is a complex behaviour influenced by multiple factors that are often sex-specific and density-dependent. Reintroduced populations are typically low in density in the initial years of establishment; hence, understanding natal dispersal patterns in this context is a critical component of reintroduction biology. Natal dispersal is a key behaviour that influences both the probability of recruitment, and simultaneously dictates the spatial configuration of the reintroduced population as it establishes. Here, we examine natal dispersal in a reintroduced population of an endangered New Zealand forest passerine, the hihi, Notiomystis cincta, in the first 3 years after reintroduction to a large, mature forest reserve. We examined (1) differences between the sexes, and (2) the relationship between temperament and natal dispersal distances (NDD) in locally bred hihi over this time period. We found NDD varied widely in both sexes, with mean NDD significantly higher in males than females. There was a sex-specific effect of temperament, with males that distress-called during handling dispersing further than those that did not. Our results show that while clusters of individuals have established across the reserve due to conspecific attraction, there is movement between these clusters, primarily a consequence of dispersal of males of a distinct temperament. Continuing to monitor natal dispersal patterns as populations establish will provide further insights into the role of dispersal in shaping establishment patterns in reintroduced populations

The FeSi phase diagram to 150 GPa

The melting curve of FeSi has been determined to 150 GPa in the laser-heated diamond anvil cell (LH-DAC) on the basis of discontinuities in the power versus temperature function. A multianvil experimental cross-check at 12 GPa using textural criteria as a proxy for melting is in good agreement with our LH-DAC results. The melting point of FeSi reaches ∼4000 K at the core mantle boundary and an extrapolated value of 4900 K at the inner-core boundary (ICB). We also present the melting curve as determined by the Lindemann melting law; this agrees well with our experimental curve to 70 GPa and then diverges to higher temperatures, reaching 6200 K at the ICB. These temperatures are substantially higher than previous LH-DAC determinations. The boundary of the ε-FeSi → CsCl-FeSi subsolidus transition has also been determined by synchrotron-based X-ray diffraction at high pressures, and the results confirm a negative Clapeyron slope for the transition. We conclude that if present, FeSi is likely to be solid within the D″ layer and is unlikely to be present within the inner core for any plausible bulk core silicon content.9 page(s

Post-treatment levels of plasma 25- and 1,25-dihydroxy vitamin D and mortality in men with aggressive prostate cancer.

Vitamin D may reduce mortality from prostate cancer (PC). We examined the associations of post-treatment plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D and 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D concentrations with PC mortality. Participants were PC cases from the New South Wales Prostate Cancer Care. All contactable and consenting participants, at 4.9 to 8.6 years after diagnosis, were interviewed and had plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) and 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D (1,25(OH)2D) measured in blood specimens. Cox regression allowing for left-truncation was used to calculate adjusted mortality hazards ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for all-cause and PC-specific mortality in relation to vitamin D levels and other potentially-predictive variables. Of the participants (n = 111; 75·9% response rate), there were 198 deaths from any cause and 41 from PC in the study period. Plasma 25(OH)D was not associated with all-cause or PC-specific mortality (p-values > 0·10). Plasma 1,25(OH)2D was inversely associated with all-cause mortality (HR for highest relative to lowest quartile = 0·45; 95% CI: 0·29-0·69), and PC-specific mortality (HR = 0·40; 95% CI: 0·14-1·19). These associations were apparent only in men with aggressive PC: all-cause mortality HR = 0·28 (95% CI·0·15-0·52; p-interaction = 0·07) and PC-specific mortality HR = 0·26 (95% CI: 0·07-1.00). Time spent outdoors was also associated with lower all-cause (HR for 4th relative to 1st exposure quartile = 0·42; 95% CI: 0·24-0·75) and PC-specific (HR = 0·48; 95% CI: 0·14-1·64) mortality, although the 95% CI for the latter was wide. The inverse association between post-treatment plasma 1,25(OH)2D levels and all-cause and PC-specific mortality in men with aggressive PC, suggest a possible beneficial effect of vitamin D supplementation in these men

Survival gains needed to offset persistent adverse treatment effects in localised prostate cancer

BACKGROUND: Men diagnosed with localised prostate cancer (LPC) face difficult choices between treatment options that can cause persistent problems with sexual, urinary and bowel function. Controlled trial evidence about the survival benefits of the full range of treatment alternatives is limited, and patients' views on the survival gains that might justify these problems have not been quantified. METHODS: A discrete choice experiment (DCE) was administered in a random subsample (n=357, stratified by treatment) of a population-based sample (n=1381) of men, recurrence-free 3 years after diagnosis of LPC, and 65 age-matched controls (without prostate cancer). Survival gains needed to justify persistent problems were estimated by substituting side effect and survival parameters from the DCE into an equation for compensating variation (adapted from welfare economics). RESULTS: Median (2.5, 97.5 centiles) survival benefits needed to justify severe erectile dysfunction and severe loss of libido were 4.0 (3.4, 4.6) and 5.0 (4.9, 5.2) months. These problems were common, particularly after androgen deprivation therapy (ADT): 40 and 41% overall (n=1381) and 88 and 78% in the ADT group (n=33). Urinary leakage (most prevalent after radical prostatectomy (n=839, mild 41%, severe 18%)) needed 4.2 (4.1, 4.3) and 27.7 (26.9, 28.5) months survival benefit, respectively. Mild bowel problems (most prevalent (30%) after external beam radiotherapy (n=106)) needed 6.2 (6.1, 6.4) months survival benefit. CONCLUSION: Emerging evidence about survival benefits can be assessed against these patient-based benchmarks. Considerable variation in trade-offs among individuals underlines the need to inform patients of long-term consequences and incorporate patient preferences into treatment decisions. © 2012 Cancer Research UK. All rights reserved

Using Bayesian mark-recapture modelling to quantify the strength and duration of post-release effects in reintroduced populations

Translocated animals often suffer elevated mortality during some acclimation period after release. Such post-release effects must be accounted for when estimating normal survival rates and therefore predicting population persistence. The standard approach for doing this is to nominate a fixed acclimation period, and either i) exclude survival data over that period, or ii) use model selection criteria to test whether survival differs over that period. We present a more flexible approach where the acclimation period is treated as unknown and is estimated simultaneously with the pre- and post-acclimation survival probabilities. We illustrate this approach using survival data for six reintroduced populations involving three New Zealand forest bird species. Analyses of the complete data sets (22–73 surveys conducted over 4–14 years) indicated that significant post-release effects occurred in at least one sex in five of the six populations, with 30–84% mortality attributable to post-release effects over acclimation periods ranging from 1 to 9 months. When we applied the approach to just the first year of data for each population, the estimated normal survival rates were consistent with those obtained from the complete data sets, and always at least as accurate as our previous approach of excluding data up to the next breeding season after translocation. The flexible approach therefore appears to be effective for accounting for post-release effects in survival estimation, and is beneficial in quantifying both the strength and duration of those effects so that pre- and post-release management strategies are better informed

Translocation as a Novel Approach to Study Effects of a New Breeding Habitat on Reproductive Output in Wild Birds

Environmental conditions under which species reproduce have major consequences on breeding success and subsequent fitness. Therefore breeding habitat choice is ultimately important. Studies rarely address the potential fitness pay-offs of alternative natural breeding habitats by experimental translocation. Here we present a new tool to study fitness consequences of free living birds in different habitats. We translocated a migratory passerine, the pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca), to a novel site, where pairs were subjected to a short stay (2–4 days) in a nest box-equipped aviary before being released. We show that it is technically possible to retain birds in the new area for breeding, allowing the study of reproductive consequences of dispersal under natural conditions. The translocation resulted in an extension of the interval between arrival and egg laying of four days, highlighting the importance of having an adequate control group. Clutch size and nestling parameters did not differ significantly between translocated and unmanipulated females, which suggests that the procedure did not affect birds in their reproductive performance later on. This method could be applied broadly in evolutionary and ecological research, e.g., to study the potential fitness benefits and costs for dispersing to more northern latitudes as a way of adapting to climate change