Establishing the Presence of a Risk Premium in the Cocoa Futures Market: An Econometric Analysis

Previous attempts at identifying and estimating a time-varying risk premium in the cocoa futures market yielded conflicting results. Using a longer series that includes the most recent cash and futures data, the existence of a time-varying risk premium in the cocoa futures market is re-investigated using LM ARCH tests and a Quadratic ARCH in Mean Error Correction Model. In contrast to available research the time series properties of the data are carefully accounted for by employing the most recent econometric techniques in testing for the presence of a risk premium. No evidence is found in support of a positive time-varying [or constant] risk premium in the cocoa futures market at conventional significance levels. The result suggests that cocoa producing countries have one less cost to consider in deciding whether or not to hedge cocoa price risk using futures contracts.Cocoa, Futures markets, time-varying risk premium, error-correction model, Agribusiness, Marketing, M,

THE DETERMINANTS OF ECO-LABEL USAGE IN THE ORGANIC PRODUCE MARKET OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS

This study used consumer intercept interviews at farmers markets and organic produce retail stores in northeast Arkansas to determine the variables that influence eco-label usage in organic produce markets. The results indicate that females, those with higher annual incomes, consumers who believe the use of pesticides has negative impact on health and the environment, and those who usually organic purchase organic produce are all more likely to use eco-labels in purchasing organic produce. The findings also suggest that there is a direct relationship between income levels and marginal probability of eco-label usage. The result of this study provides a more current picture of the major determinants that influence eco-label usage among consumers which will be valuable as the USDA proposed organic standards are implemented in the market.Marketing,

Explaining Ghana's Recent Good Cocoa Karma: Smuggling Incentive Argument

The paper contends that the current boom in cocoa exports from Ghana is primarily in response to reversal in price incentives to smuggle Ghana cocoa to La Cote d’Ivoire and not due to productivity gains in the Ghana cocoa supply chain. Using recent data; ADF, Perron and KPSS tests of stationarity; Engle and Granger and Johansen co-integration tests; Granger causality tests; single and vector error correction models; as well as partial adjustment models, we estimate the Ghana cocoa supply response to determine the most pertinent factors that explain the cocoa boom. Different from previous research, the VECM and ECM models are modified to be more reflective of current conditions in the Ghana cocoa sector by including prices of relevant substitutes in cocoa production. Furthermore we carefully account for the time series properties of the data and address endogeneity problems that plague the estimation. For example, in testing for the order of integration of different series, we account for the possible existence of structural breaks. We find that the “price incentive to smuggle” argument adequately explains the current boom in Ghana cocoa supply response. This finding is important because it questions claims in the literature that substantial productivity gains in the cocoa sector in response to good policy is the main reason behind the Ghana cocoa export boom.International Relations/Trade,

SETTING ECO-LABEL STANDARDS IN THE FRESH ORGANIC VEGETABLE MARKET OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS

Agribusiness,

An Empirical Analysis of Recent Changes in US Beef Marketing Margins

An Augmented Relative Price Spread (ARPS) model is employed to explain recent changes in real US beef wholesale-retail (WR) and hence farm-retail (FR) marketing margins. It is found that the surge in retail market concentration in 1999 most likely increased retail market oligopsony power relative to wholesale oligopoly power, ultimately changing real US WR beef marketing margins. The finding that higher oligopsony retail market power relative to oligopoly wholesale market power in the US beef industry was most likely responsible for the changes in US WR marketing margins in 1999 is important because it provides an economic justification for policy makers to regulate anticompetitive conduct by beef retailers.Livestock Production/Industries, Marketing,

IDENTIFICATION OF MARKET POTENTIAL FOR PASTURE-RAISED PORK IN THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF ARKANSAS-1998

Agribusiness,

Is Foreign Aid Beneficial for Sub-Saharan Africa? A Panel Data Analysis

Significant ambiguity surrounds the magnitude and sign of the effect of foreign aid on economic growth. Foreign aid can potentially augment scarce domestic capital to spur growth but foreign aid can also remove positive incentive to build wealth, stalling growth. This paper characterizes the effect of foreign aid on the growth of Sub-Saharan African countries after correcting endogeneity problems that plague the estimation. Foreign aid is found to be growth promoting given good governance and using fixed effects in a static panel framework. Data from twenty-one Sub-Saharan African countries spanning 1995-2003 was used in the estimation. The finding of a significant foreign aid-growth relationship is pertinent because it suggests that increased aid to Sub Saharan Africa is one way to achieve the UN’s Millennium goals. By lobbying for increased foreign aid, advocates are prescribing a necessary albeit insufficient medicine for Sub Saharan Africa’s economic problems.Food Security and Poverty,

AGRICULTURAL BANK EFFICIENCY AND THE ROLE OF MANAGERIAL RISK PREFERENCES

We investigate the objectives of agricultural bank managers and their impacts on bank efficiency. If managers are non-neutral toward risk, then banks may appear inefficient when they are not. We find non-neutrality toward risk and efficiency gains due to firm size, loan shares, asset shares, and share of market deposits.Financial Economics, Risk and Uncertainty,

Does Access and Use OF Financial Service Smoothen Household Food Consumption?

The study relies on Ghana’s Living Standard Measurement Survey to test the hypothesis of no relationship between credit and household food consumption expenditure. We use single stage and pooled least squares given the non-availability of national panel data in Ghana and lack of better instruments in the Living Standard data. While cognisant of the adverse effect of endogeneity we observe that our finding fails to provide enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis. This suggests that access to credit does not contribute to the smoothening of household consumption. This observation cuts across different sub-samples based on socio-economic classification. We recommend caution in propagating the ability of credit in smoothening consumption.FINANCE, HOUSEHOLD, CONSUMPTION, INCOME