Analysis and optimization of weighted ensemble sampling

We give a mathematical framework for weighted ensemble (WE) sampling, a binning and resampling technique for efficiently computing probabilities in molecular dynamics. We prove that WE sampling is unbiased in a very general setting that includes adaptive binning. We show that when WE is used for stationary calculations in tandem with a coarse model, the coarse model can be used to optimize the allocation of replicas in the bins.Comment: 22 pages, 3 figure

On the phase transition curve in a directed exponential random graph model

We consider a family of directed exponential random graph models parametrized by edges and outward stars. Much of the important statistical content of such models is given by the normalization constant of the models, and in particular, an appropriately scaled limit of the normalization, which is called the free energy. We derive precise asymptotics for the normalization constant for finite graphs. We use this to derive a formula for the free energy. The limit is analytic everywhere except along a curve corresponding to a first order phase transition. We examine unusual behavior of the model along the phase transition curve.Comment: 31 pages, 2 figure

The parallel replica method for simulating long trajectories of Markov chains

The parallel replica dynamics, originally developed by A.F. Voter, efficiently simulates very long trajectories of metastable Langevin dynamics. We present an analogous algorithm for discrete time Markov processes. Such Markov processes naturally arise, for example, from the time discretization of a continuous time stochastic dynamics. Appealing to properties of quasistationary distributions, we show that our algorithm reproduces exactly (in some limiting regime) the law of the original trajectory, coarsened over the metastable states.Comment: 13 pages, 6 figure