Forecasting the Levels of Vector Autoregressive Log-Transformed Time Series

In this paper we give explicit expressions for the forecasts of levels of a vector time series when such forecasts are generated from (possibly cointegrated) vector autoregressions for the corresponding log-transformed time series. We also show that simply taking exponentials of forecasts for logged data leads to substantially biased forecasts. We illustrate this using a bivariate cointegrated vector series containing US GNP and investments.forecasting;VAR time series;log-transformation

Una inscripción de época republicana dedicada a <i>Salaecus</i> en la región minera de Carthago Nova

In this paper we study an unpublished votive inscription from Mina Mercurio (in Portman, Cartagena), exhibited at the Aguilas Archaeological Museum. It is dedicated by freedmen from the <i>gens Roscia</i>, a well-known family of negotiators who used to sign the argentiferous galena ingot hallmark found in Cabezo Rajao in La Unión around 1846. It is one of the oldest inscriptions found in the area of <i>Carthago Noua</i>, and thus, in the whole Hispania. It is dated at the end of the 2nd century or very beginning of the 1st century b.c., especially with the use of an archaic plural nominative in -es. It is dedicated to <i>Salaecus</i>, a vocative etymologically related to water and the sea. For this reason and because of the place where it was found, it might refer to the Roman god Neptune or to a Hispanic deity related to water.<br><br>Estudiamos una inscripción votiva inédita procedente de Mina Mercurio (Portmán, Cartagena), depositada en el Museo Arqueológico de Águilas. La dedican unos libertos de la <i>gens Roscia</i>, conocida familia de <i>negotiatores</i> que firmaban los sellos de lingotes de galena argentífera que aparecieron en el Cabezo Rajao de La Unión, en torno a 1846. Se trata de una de las inscripciones más antiguas de la zona de <i>Carthago Noua</i>. Se fecha a finales del siglo II o principios del siglo I a. C., fundamentalmente a partir de la utilización de un nominativo plural arcaico en <i>-es</i>. Está dedicada a <i>Salaecus</i>, un apelativo que se relaciona etimológicamente con las aguas y con el mar. Por ello y por el lugar donde apareció, formulamos la hipótesis de que haría alusión al dios romano Neptuno o a una deidad hispánica relacionada con el agua