Coordination of flexible generation and transmission investments under uncertainty

The liberalization of power markets has led to a paradigm shift in the scope of the generation and transmission expansion planning. The assessment of this issue is complex because of the uncertainties that usually determine the long term evolution of the market. Moreover, and from the point of view of regulators and policy makers, an optimal assessment is of great interest because the lack of coordination between two types of investments can jeopardize competition and efficiency in the whole sector. In this regard, the literature suggests the use of holistic approaches, which are a suitable to address risks associated to the coordination of investments in the power market. This allows regulators to identify an efficient investment alternative, even in scenarios in which the uncertain variables evolve unfavorably. In that context, this paper proposes an improved method to assess the joint Transmission and Generation Expansion Planning segments, considering the inherent flexibility of generation investments, using the Real Options Valuation approach, calculated with the Least Squares Monte Carlo.CONACYT - Consejo Nacional de Ciencias y TecnologíaPROCIENCI

Power Generation and Transmission Expansion Planning under Uncertainty considering Flexibility in Generation Investments

The process of liberalization of power markets has led to a paradigm shift in the joint expansion planning of the generation and transmission segments. The assessment of this problem is even more complex when considering the uncertainties that usually determine the long-term evolution of the system. Moreover, and from the point of view of regulators and policy makers, an optimal assessment is of great interest because the lack of coordination between the two types of investment can jeopardize competition and efficiency in the whole electricity sector. In this regard, the literature suggests the use of holistic approaches, which necessarily evaluate the risks associated with the coordination of investments in the power system, in order to allow regulators to identify an efficient investment alternative, considering scenarios in which the uncertain variables evolve unfavorably. In this context, this paper test a method to assess the joint expansion planning of the generation and transmission segments, considering the inherent flexibility of generation investments, using the Real Options Valuation approach, calculated with the Least Squares Monte Carlo. In order to validate this method, a case study has been simulated. It is shown that the consideration of investments’ flexibility allows increasing the system-wide social benefit through the coordinated planning of the generation and transmission segments.CONACYT - Consejo Nacional de Ciencias y TecnologíaPROCIENCI

Planificación de expansión de generación y transmisión bajo incertidumbre considerando flexibilidad en inversiones de generación.

En este trabajo propone un método de planificación de la expansión conjunta de los segmentos de generación y transmisión, considerando la flexibilidad de las inversiones en el primer segmento, empleando el enfoque de valoración de Opciones Reales, basado en el método Mínimos Cuadrados de Montecarlo. Con el fin de ilustrar la validez del método propuesto, se incluyen resultados del análisis de un caso de estudio, donde se demuestra que la consideración de flexibilidad de las in versiones permite incrementar el beneficio social mediante la coordinación de la expansión de generación y transmisión.CONACYT - Consejo Nacional de Ciencias y TecnologíaPROCIENCI