Actualised and future changes in regional economic growth through sea level rise

This study investigates the long-term economic impact of sea-level rise (SLR) on coastal regions in Europe, focusing on Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Using a novel dataset covering regional SLR and economic growth from 1900 to 2020, we quantify the relationships between SLR and regional GDP per capita across 79 coastal EU & UK regions. Our results reveal that the current SLR has already negatively influenced GDP of coastal regions, leading to a cumulative 4.7% loss at 39 cm of SLR. Over the 120 year period studied, the actualised impact of SLR on the annual growth rate is between -0.02% and 0.04%. Extrapolating these findings to future climate and socio-economic scenarios, we show that in the absence of additional adaptation measures, GDP losses by 2100 could range between -6.3% and -20.8% under the most extreme SLR scenario (SSP5-RCP8.5 High-end Ice, or -4.0% to -14.1% in SSP5-RCP8.5 High Ice). This statistical analysis utilising a century-long dataset, provides an empirical foundation for designing region-specific climate adaptation strategies to mitigate economic damages caused by SLR. Our evidence supports the argument for strategically relocating assets and establishing coastal setback zones when it is economically preferable and socially agreeable, given that protection investments have an economic impact

Understanding the feedbacks between climate change and the global economy: an ecological, post-Keynesian modelling approach for the European Green Deal

Economic activity generates carbon emissions that accelerate climate change. Rising temperatures will eventually lead to climate damages that deteriorate our economic system, putting the livelihood of millions at risk. The purpose of our analysis is to assess how this feedbacking dynamic develops until the end of the century. To do so, we have used a macroeconomic stock-flow consistent model of the global economy called DEFINE, which is based on post-Keynesian and ecological economics principles. DEFINE explicitly includes an ecosystem with finite natural resources, an extensive macroeconomy featuring five main actor clusters (households, firms, banks, government and central banks), and a financial system. Furthermore, we have operationalised the economic policies of the European Green Deal and used them as an input to the model. Using environmental and macroeconomic performance indicators, we have assessed the effectiveness of these policies in achieving sustainable growth and keeping global temperature change within 2ºC by 2100. In our analysis, the European Green Deal fosters the decarbonisation of the economy, but in its current form is not sufficient to keep global warming within the 2ºC target.Engineering and Policy Analysi