Optimal Estimation of Derivatives in Nonparametric Regression

Abstract We propose a simple framework for estimating derivatives without fitting the regression function in nonparametric regression. Unlike most existing methods that use the symmetric difference quotients, our method is constructed as a linear combination of observations. It is hence very flexible and applicable to both interior and boundary points, including most existing methods as special cases of ours. Within this framework, we define the variance-minimizing estimators for any order derivative of the regression function with a fixed bias-reduction level. For the equidistant design, we derive the asymptotic variance and bias of these estimators. We also show that our new method will, for the first time, achieve the asymptotically optimal convergence rate for difference-based estimators. Finally, we provide an effective criterion for selection of tuning parameters and demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed method through extensive simulation studies of the firstand second-order derivative estimators

Blunt trauma as a suspected cause of delayed constrictive pericarditis: a case report

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Introduction</p> <p>Constrictive pericarditis is a heterogeneous disease with many causes. Traumatic hemopericardium is an uncommon initiating cause. We report the case of a man developing constrictive pericarditis after blunt chest trauma, in order to highlight an approach to diagnosing the condition and to raise awareness of the possibility of this condition developing after blunt trauma.</p> <p>Case presentation</p> <p>A 72-year-old Caucasian man presented initially to our outpatient clinic with a one-year history of progressively worsening dyspnea, and recent onset of edema of the legs. He was later taken to the emergency department and admitted to hospital. He had previously received unsuccessful treatment from his local primary physicians for suspected respiratory disorder and cellulitis of his legs. Echocardiography showed evidence of pericardial constriction, and computed tomography revealed nodular, lobulated thickening of the pericardium and pleura bilaterally. Interventional biopsies were taken, but gave inconclusive results. Thus, as pericarditis and/or advanced malignancy were suspected, diagnostic video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery was performed to take biopsies from the abnormal lung and pericardial tissue. Examination of these supported the diagnosis of pericarditis, as acute and chronic inflammation and fibrous thickening were found, with no evidence of malignancy. Our patient underwent cardiac catheterization, which revealed three-vessel coronary artery disease. Emergency total pericardiectomy and coronary bypass were performed. Having excluded other common initiating factors, we considered that a blunt trauma that our patient had previously sustained to his chest was the potential cause of the constrictive pericarditis.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This was an interesting case of blunt chest trauma followed by progressive pericardial and pleural thickening. Subsequent development of chronic constrictive pericarditis occurred, requiring treatment by surgical pericardiectomy, as the clinical course of constrictive pericarditis is usually progressive without surgical intervention. Diagnosis of constrictive pericarditis remains challenging. Although uncommon, blunt trauma should be considered as a possible initiating cause. Delayed presentation of constrictive pericarditis should also be considered as a possible morbidity in a patient who has sustained blunt chest trauma. Our case also highlights the importance of performing echocardiography promptly in patients experiencing ongoing symptoms of congestive heart failure to allow earlier diagnosis of constrictive pericarditis or other cardiac disorders, and avoid unnecessary treatments.</p

Predicting collective behaviour at the Hajj: place, space, and the process of cooperation

Around 2 million pilgrims attend the annual Hajj to Mecca and the holy places, which are subject to dense crowding. Both architecture and psychology can be part of disaster risk reduction in relation to crowding, since both can affect the nature of collective behaviour – particularly cooperation – among pilgrims. To date, collective behaviour at the Hajj has not been systematically investigated from a psychological perspective. We examined determinants of cooperation in the Grand Mosque and plaza during the pilgrimage. A questionnaire survey of 1194 pilgrims found that the Mosque was perceived by pilgrims as one of the most crowded ritual locations. Being in the plaza (compared to the Mosque) predicted the extent of cooperation, though crowd density did not. Shared social identity with the crowd explained more of the variance than both location and density. We examined some of the process underlying cooperation. The link between shared social identity and giving support to others was stronger in the plaza than in the Mosque, and suggests the role of place and space in modulating processes of cooperation in crowds. These findings have implications for disaster risk reduction and for applications such as computer simulations of crowds in pilgrimage locations

Sex steroid hormones and epilepsy: Effects of hormonal replacement therapy on seizure frequency of postmenopausal women with epilepsy—A systematic review

Background and purpose: Hormonal replacement therapy (HRT) is used for symptomatic treatment of menopause. Some evidence suggests a proconvulsant effect of estrogen and an anticonvulsant role of progesterone. Thus, the use of exogenous sex steroid hormones might influence the course of epilepsy in peri- and postmenopausal women with epilepsy (WWE). We conducted a systematic review on the impact of HRT on the frequency of seizures of WWE. Methods: PubMed and Scopus were searched for articles published from inception until August 2022. Abstracts from the past 5 years from the European Academy of Neurology and European Epilepsy Congresses were also reviewed. Article reference lists were screened, and relevant articles were retrieved for consultation. Interventional and observational studies on WWE and animal models of estrogen deficiency were included. Critical appraisal was performed using the revised Cochrane risk-of-bias tool for randomized trials and ROBINS-E tool. Results: Of 497 articles screened, 13 studies were included, including three human studies. One cross-sectional study showed a decrease in seizure frequency in WWE using combined HRT, a case–control study showed an increase in comparison with controls, and a randomized clinical trial found a dose-dependent increase in seizure frequency in women with focal epilepsy taking combined HRT. Ten studies addressing the impact of HRT in rat models were also included, which showed conflicting results. Conclusions: There is scarce evidence of the impact of HRT in WWE. Further studies should evaluate the harmful potential, and prospective registries are needed for monitoring this population

Correlates of physical activity and sitting time in adults with type 2 diabetes attending primary health care in Oman

Abstract Background Despite evidence of the benefits of physical activity in the management of type 2 diabetes, it is poorly addressed in diabetes care. This study aimed to identify the prevalence and correlates of meeting ≥600MET-min/wk. (150 min/wk) of physical activity and sitting time in adults with type 2 diabetes in Oman. Approaches to encourage physical activity in diabetes care were explored. Methods A cross-sectional study using the Global Physical Activity Questionnaire was conducted in 17 randomly selected primary health centres in Muscat. Clinical data including co-morbidities were extracted from the health information system. Questions on physical activity preferences and approaches were included. Patients were approached if they were ≥18 years, and had been registered in the diabetes clinic for >2 years. Results The questionnaire was completed by 305 people (females 57% and males 43%). Mean age (SD) was 57 (10.8) years and mean BMI (SD) was 31.0 (6.0) kg/m2. Duration of diabetes ranged from 2 to 25 (mean 7.6) years. Hypertension (71%) and dyslipidaemia (62%) were common comorbidities. Most (58.4%) had an HbA1c ≥7% indicating poor glycaemic control (55% in males vs 61% in females). Physical activity recommendations were met by 21.6% of the participants, mainly through leisure activities. Odds of meeting the recommendations were significantly higher in males (OR 4.8, 95% CI 2.5–9.1), individuals ≤57 years (OR 3.0, 95% CI 1.6–5.9), those at active self-reported stages of change for physical activity (OR 2.2, 95% CI 1.2–4.1) and those reporting no barriers to performing physical activity (OR 2.7, 95% CI 1.4–4.9). Median (25th, 75th percentiles) sitting time was 705 (600, 780) min/d. Older age (>57 years) was associated with longer sitting time (>705 min/d) (OR 2.8, 95% CI 1.7–4.6). Preferred methods to support physical activity in routine diabetes care were consultations (38%), structured physical activity sessions (13.4%) and referrals to physical activity facilities (5.6%) delivered by a variety of health care providers. Conclusions The results suggest that intervention strategies should take account of gender, age, opportunities within daily life to promote active behaviour and readiness to change. Offering physical activity consultations is of interest to this study population, thus development and evaluation of interventions are warranted