Indirect costs of financial distress

We estimate the indirect costs of financial distress due to lost sales by exploiting real estate (RE) shocks and cross-supplier variation in RE assets and leverage. We show that for the same client buying from different suppliers, the client’s purchases from distressed suppliers decline by an additional 13% following a drop in local RE prices. The effect is more pronounced in more competitive industries, manufacturing, durable goods, less-specific goods, and when the costs of switching suppliers are low. Our results suggest that clients reduce their exposure to suppliers in financial distress

Storm-wave trends in Mexican waters of the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea

Thirty-year time series of hindcast wave data were analysed for 10 coastal locations along the eastern Mexican coast to obtain information about storm events occurring in the region, with the goal of examining the possible presence of interannual trends in the number of storm-wave events and their main features (wave height, duration and energy content). The storms were defined according to their significant wave height and duration, and the events were classified as related to either tropical cyclones or Norte events. The occurrence and characteristics of both types of events were analysed independently. There is no statistically significant change in the number of storm-wave events related to Nortes or their characteristics during the study period. However, there is a subtle increase in the number of events related to tropical cyclones in the western Caribbean region and a more evident increase in wave height and energy content of these events

Assessment of coastal flooding and associated hydrodynamic processes on the south-eastern coast of Mexico, during Central American cold surge events

Coastal flooding in the northern Yucatán Peninsula is mainly associated with storm surge events triggered by high-pressure cold front systems. This study evaluates the hydrodynamic processes of the Chelem lagoon, Mexico and the flooding threat from cold fronts for the neighbouring town of Progreso. A 30-year water-level hindcast (excluding wave set-up) was performed because of the lack of long-term tide gauge records. In order to assess the relative contribution from wave set-up and residual and astronomical tides to total flooding, the two worst storm scenarios in terms of maximum residual tide (Event A) and maximum water level (Event B) were simulated. Numerical results suggest that during Event A the wave set-up contribution reaches 0.35 at the coast and 0.17 m inside the lagoon, and these values are smaller for Event B (0.30 and 0.14 m, respectively). Results of the effect of the tidal phase on wave set-up and residual sea level show that (i) the wave set-up contribution increases during ebb tide and decreases during flood tide at the Chelem inlet, (ii) the residual tide is larger (smaller) near low (high) or receding (rising) tide, and (iii) maximum flooding occurs when the storm peak coincides with rising or high tide. The numerical results confirm the important role of wave set-up on the assessment of coastal flooding in micro-tidal coastal environments

High resolution computed tomography quantitation of emphysema is correlated with selected lung function values in stable COPD.

BACKGROUND: The literature shows conflicting results when high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) scores of emphysema were correlated with different indices of airflow obstruction. OBJECTIVES: We correlated HRCT scores of emphysema with different indices of airflow obstruction. METHODS: We performed HRCT of the chest in 59 patients, all smokers or ex-smokers, with stable chronic obstructive pulmonary disease of different severity [GOLD stages I-IV; mean age \ub1 SD 67.8 \ub1 7.3 years; pack/years 51.0 \ub1 34.6; percent predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV(1)% predicted) 52.3 \ub1 17.6; post-bronchodilator FEV(1)% predicted 56.5 \ub1 19.1; FEV(1)/forced vital capacity (FVC) ratio 50.8 \ub1 10.2; post-bronchodilator FEV(1)/FVC ratio 51.6 \ub1 11.0; percent diffusion lung capacity for carbon monoxide (DLCO%) 59.2 \ub1 21.1; DLCO/percent alveolar volume (VA%) 54.5 \ub1 18.2; percent residual volume 163.0 \ub1 35.6; percent total lung capacity (TLC%) 113.2 \ub1 15; residual volume/TLC 1.44 \ub1 0.2]. All patients were in stable phase. RESULTS: The mean \ub1 SD visual emphysema score in all patients was 25.6 \ub1 25.4%. There was a weak but significant correlation between the percentage of pulmonary emphysema and numbers of pack/years (R = +0.31, p = 0.024). The percentage of emphysema was inversely correlated with the FEV(1)/FVC ratio before and after bronchodilator use (R = -0.44, p = 0.002, and R = -0.39, p = 0.005), DLCO% (R = -0.64, p = 0.0003) and DLCO/VA% (R = -0.68, p < 0.0001). A weak positive correlation was also found with TLC% (R = +0.28, p = 0.048). When patients with documented emphysema were considered separately, the best significant correlation observed was between DLCO/VA% and HRCT scan score (p = 0.007). CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that in patients with stable chronic obstructive pulmonary disease of varying severity, the presence of pulmonary emphysema is best represented by the impaired gas exchange capability of the respiratory system

Run-up parameterization and beach vulnerability assessment on a barrier island: a downscaling approach

We present a downscaling approach for the study of wave-induced extreme water levels at a location on a barrier island in Yucatán (Mexico). Wave information from a 30-year wave hindcast is validated with in situ measurements at 8 m water depth. The maximum dissimilarity algorithm is employed for the selection of 600 representative cases, encompassing different combinations of wave characteristics and tidal level. The selected cases are propagated from 8 m water depth to the shore using the coupling of a third-generation wave model and a phase-resolving non-hydrostatic nonlinear shallow-water equation model. Extreme wave run-up, R2%, is estimated for the simulated cases and can be further employed to reconstruct the 30-year time series using an interpolation algorithm. Downscaling results show run-up saturation during more energetic wave conditions and modulation owing to tides. The latter suggests that the R2% can be parameterized using a hyperbolic-like formulation with dependency on both wave height and tidal level. The new parametric formulation is in agreement with the downscaling results (r2  =  0.78), allowing a fast calculation of wave-induced extreme water levels at this location. Finally, an assessment of beach vulnerability to wave-induced extreme water levels is conducted at the study area by employing the two approaches (reconstruction/parameterization) and a storm impact scale. The 30-year extreme water level hindcast allows the calculation of beach vulnerability as a function of return periods. It is shown that the downscaling-derived parameterization provides reasonable results as compared with the numerical approach. This methodology can be extended to other locations and can be further improved by incorporating the storm surge contributions to the extreme water level

Global ocean wave fields show consistent regional trends between 1980 and 2014 in a multi-product ensemble

Historical trends in the direction and magnitude of ocean surface wave height, period, or direction are debated due to diverse data, time-periods, or methodologies. Using a consistent community-driven ensemble of global wave products, we quantify and establish regions with robust trends in global multivariate wave fields between 1980 and 2014. We find that about 30-40% of the global ocean experienced robust seasonal trends in mean and extreme wave height, period, and direction. Most of the Southern Hemisphere exhibited strong upward-trending wave heights (1-2 cm per year) and periods during winter and summer. Ocean basins with robust positive trends are far larger than those with negative trends. Historical trends calculated over shorter periods generally agree with satellite records but vary from product to product, with some showing a consistently negative bias. Variability in trends across products and time-periods highlights the importance of considering multiple sources when seeking robust change analyses

Global ocean wave fields show consistent regional trends between 1980 and 2014 in a multi-product ensemble

Historical trends in the direction and magnitude of ocean surface wave height, period, or direction are debated due to diverse data, time-periods, or methodologies. Using a consistent community-driven ensemble of global wave products, we quantify and establish regions with robust trends in global multivariate wave fields between 1980 and 2014. We find that about 30–40% of the global ocean experienced robust seasonal trends in mean and extreme wave height, period, and direction. Most of the Southern Hemisphere exhibited strong upward-trending wave heights (1–2 cm per year) and periods during winter and summer. Ocean basins with robust positive trends are far larger than those with negative trends. Historical trends calculated over shorter periods generally agree with satellite records but vary from product to product, with some showing a consistently negative bias. Variability in trends across products and time-periods highlights the importance of considering multiple sources when seeking robust change analyses.publishedVersio

Mathematical modeling of gallic acid release from chitosan films with grape seed extract and carvacrol

Controlled release of antimicrobial and antioxidant compounds from packaging films is of utmost importance for extending the shelf-life of perishable foods. This study focused on the mathematical modeling of gallic acid release into an aqueous medium from three chitosan films, formulated with grape seed extract (GSE) and carvacrol. We quantified the release by HPLC technique during 30days at three temperatures (5, 25 and 45°C). The diffusion coefficients, varying with temperature according to an Arrhenius-type relationship, and the respective activation energies for Film-1 and Film-2 were, respectively [Formula: see text] m2s-1 and [Formula: see text] m2s-1, Ea1=58kJmol-1 and Ea2=60kJmol-1 as obtained from the Fickian fit. The low concentrations of gallic acid released by Film-3 could not be detected by HPLC, therefore the respective diffusion coefficient was not estimated. This study will help with the development and optimization of active packaging (AP) films aiming at improved food preservation and shelf-life extension.Javiera F. Rubilar gratefully acknowledges her Ph.D. grant from ErasmusMundus 2008-1022/001 Frame ECW/17, EACEA(European Union), financial support of the Fondecyt-Postdoctoral #3140349 project from CONICYT, and also “Dirección de Investigación e Innovación Escuela de Ingeniería” at Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. Rui M. S. Cruz acknowledges grant SFRH/BPD/70036/2010 from Fundac¸ ão para a Ciência e Tecnologia, Portugalinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Land conflict in peri-urban areas: Exploring the effects of land reform on informal settlement in Mexico

Peri-urban areas are often subject to intensive construction, through both formal and informal processes. As land transitions from rural to urban status, different land tenure and administration systems may come into conflict, leading to disputes, contestation and, in some cases, violence. However, little is known about the precise causes of peri-urban land conflict. In Mexico, peri-urban growth has historically proceeded peacefully, owing to the control exerted by a corporatist system of government, and the political use of land tenure regularisation. However, the effects of land reforms on transactions at the peri-urban fringe, in the context of wider processes of liberalisation, may be increasing vulnerability to conflict over land. This paper explores these issues through a case study of an irregular settlement on the peri-urban fringe of the provincial Mexican city of Xalapa, where contestations over informally developed land have escalated into violent encounters between groups of settlers and the state. The findings show that vulnerability to conflict in peri-urban areas can be attributed to the interaction of macro-level processes with local-level factors, including diverse claims, overlapping legal and governance frameworks and, critically, local power relations

Monitoring of total positive end-expiratory pressure during mechanical ventilation by artificial neural networks

Ventilation treatment of acute lung injury (ALI) requires the application of positive airway pressure at the end of expiration (PEEPapp) to avoid lung collapse. However, the total pressure exerted on the alveolar walls (PEEPtot) is the sum of PEEPapp and intrinsic PEEP (PEEPi), a hidden component. To measure PEEPtot, ventilation must be discontinued with an end-expiratory hold maneuver (EEHM). We hypothesized that artificial neural networks (ANN) could estimate the PEEPtot from flow and pressure tracings during ongoing mechanical ventilation. Ten pigs were mechanically ventilated, and the time constant of their respiratory system (τRS) was measured. We shortened their expiratory time (TE) according to multiples of τRS, obtaining different respiratory patterns (Rpat). Pressure (PAW) and flow (V′AW) at the airway opening during ongoing mechanical ventilation were simultaneously recorded, with and without the addition of external resistance. The last breath of each Rpat included an EEHM, which was used to compute the reference PEEPtot. The entire protocol was repeated after the induction of ALI with i.v. injection of oleic acid, and 382 tracings were obtained. The ANN had to extract the PEEPtot, from the tracings without an EEHM. ANN agreement with reference PEEPtot was assessed with the Bland–Altman method. Bland Altman analysis of estimation error by ANN showed −0.40 ± 2.84 (expressed as bias ± precision) and ±5.58 as limits of agreement (data expressed as cmH2O). The ANNs estimated the PEEPtot well at different levels of PEEPapp under dynamic conditions, opening up new possibilities in monitoring PEEPi in critically ill patients who require ventilator treatment