Food Price Volatility and Macroeconomic Factors: Evidence from GARCH and GARCH-X Estimates

This article examines food price volatility in Greece and how it is affected by short-run deviations between food prices and macroeconomic factors. The methodology follows the GARCH and GARCH-X models. The results show that there exists a positive effect between the deviations and food price volatility. The results are highly important for producers and consumers because higher volatility augments the uncertainty in the food markets. Once the participants receive a signal that the food market is volatile, this might lead them to ask for increased government intervention in the allocation of investment resources and this could reduce overall welfare.relative food prices, volatility, macroeconomic factors, GARCH and GARCHX models, Demand and Price Analysis, Marketing, E60, Q10, Q19,

Do Remittances Promote Economic Growth? New Evidence from India

This study investigates the empirical relationship between remittances and economic growth of India, placing special attention on the non-linearity of this association. Previous studies on India have ignored the non-linear nature of the remittance-growth nexus. The study employs methods from the ARDL model framework to explore the non-linearity and establishes that remittances do not exhibit any growth effect in lower quantiles and up to 0.50, but the impact increases monotonically, getting more pronounced as the quantile increases. In other words, inward remittances must exceed a threshold to start affecting economic growth positively. It is argued that this behaviour of the remittances is the consequence of a combination of factors like patterns of utilisation (or, misutilisation) of the receipts, India’s trade balance, a weak industrial sector, the lack of entrepreneurial opportunities, the lack of financial inclusion, and the exploitation of poor migrant workers

Perseveration and Shifting in Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder as a Function of Uncertainty, Punishment, and Serotonergic Medication

© 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc on behalf of the Society of Biological Psychiatry. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY), https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Background The nature of cognitive flexibility deficits in obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD), which historically have been tested with probabilistic reversal learning tasks, remains elusive. Here, a novel deterministic reversal task and inclusion of unmedicated patients in the study sample illuminated the role of fixed versus uncertain rules/contingencies and of serotonergic medication. Additionally, our understanding of probabilistic reversal was enhanced through theoretical computational modeling of cognitive flexibility in OCD. Methods We recruited 49 patients with OCD, 21 of whom were unmedicated, and 43 healthy control participants matched for age, IQ, and gender. Participants were tested on 2 tasks: a novel visuomotor deterministic reversal learning task with 3 reversals (feedback rewarding/punishing/neutral) measuring accuracy/perseveration and a 2-choice visual probabilistic reversal learning task with uncertain feedback and a single reversal measuring win-stay and lose-shift. Bayesian computational modeling provided measures of learning rate, reinforcement sensitivity, and stimulus stickiness. Results Unmedicated patients with OCD were impaired on the deterministic reversal task under punishment only at the first and third reversals compared with both control participants and medicated patients with OCD, who had no deficit. Perseverative errors were correlated with OCD severity. On the probabilistic reversal task, unmedicated patients were only impaired at reversal, whereas medicated patients were impaired at both the learning and reversal stages. Computational modeling showed that the overall change was reduced feedback sensitivity in both OCD groups. Conclusions Both perseveration and increased shifting can be observed in OCD, depending on test conditions including the predictability of reinforcement. Perseveration was related to clinical severity and remediated by serotonergic medication.Peer reviewe

Does final energy demand in Portugal exhibit long memory? A fractional integration analysis

In this paper, we measure the degree of fractional integration in final energy demand in Portugal using an ARFIMA model with and without adjustments for seasonality. We consider aggregate energy demand as well as final demand for petroleum, electricity, coal, and natural gas. Our findings suggest the presence of long memory in all of the components of energy demand. All fractional-difference param- eters are positive and lower than 0.5 indicating that the series are stationary, although with mean reversion patterns slower than in the typical short-run processes. These results have important implications for the design of energy policies. As a result of the long-memory in final energy demand, the effects of temporary policy shocks will tend to disappear slowly. This means that even transitory shocks have long lasting effects. Given the temporary nature of these effects, however, permanent effects on final energy demand require permanent policies. This is unlike what would be suggested by the more standard, but much more limited, unit root approach, which would incorrectly indicate that even transitory policies would have permanent effects.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Oil prices and stock returns : nonlinear links across sectors

We present evidence of an asymmetric relationship between oil prices and stock returns. The two regime multivariate Markov switching vector autoregressive (MSVAR) model allow us to capture the state shifts in the relationship between regional stock markets and sectors. Results suggest that oil price risk is significantly priced in the sample used. The impact is asymmetric with respect to market phases, and regimes have been associated with world economic, social and political events. Our study also suggests asymmetric responses of sector stock returns to oil price changes and different transmission impacts depending on the sector analyzed. There is a high causality from oil to sectors like Industrials and Oil & Gas. Companies inside the Utilities sector were more able to hedge against oil price increases between 2007 and 2012. Historical crisis events between 1992–1998 and 2003–2007 do not seem to have affected the relationship between oil and sector stock returns, given the higher probability of remaining smoother. For all sectors there seems to be a turn back to stability from 2012 onwards. Finally, investors gain more through portfolio diversification benefits built across, rather than within sectors.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Environmentalism in the EU-28 context: the impact of governance quality on environmental energy efficiency

Environmental policies are a significant cornerstone of a developed economy, but the question that arises is whether such policies lead to a sustainable growth path. It is clear that the energy sector plays a pivotal role in environmental policies, and although the current literature has focused on examining the link between energy consumption and economic growth through an abundance of studies, it does not explicitly consider the role of institutional or governance quality variables in the process. Both globalization and democracy are important drivers of sustainability, while environmentalism is essential for the objective of gaining a “better world.” Governance quality is expected to be the key, not only for economic purposes but also for the efficiency of environmental policies. To that end, the analysis in this paper explores the link between governance quality and energy efficiency for the EU-28 countries, spanning the period 1995 to 2014. The findings document that there is a nexus between energy efficiency and income they move together: the most efficient countries are in the group with higher GDP per capita. Furthermore, the results show that governance quality is an important driver of energy efficiency and, hence, of environmental policies.University of Granad

TESS Duotransit Candidates from the Southern Ecliptic Hemisphere

Discovering transiting exoplanets with long orbital periods allows us to study warm and cool planetary systems with temperatures similar to the planets in our own Solar system. The TESS mission has photometrically surveyed the entire Southern Ecliptic Hemisphere in Cycle 1 (August 2018 - July 2019), Cycle 3 (July 2020 - June 2021) and Cycle 5 (September 2022 - September 2023). We use the observations from Cycle 1 and Cycle 3 to search for exoplanet systems that show a single transit event in each year - which we call duotransits. The periods of these planet candidates are typically in excess of 20 days, with the lower limit determined by the duration of individual TESS observations. We find 85 duotransit candidates, which span a range of host star brightnesses between 8 < $T_{mag}$ < 14, transit depths between 0.1 per cent and 1.8 per cent, and transit durations between 2 and 10 hours with the upper limit determined by our normalisation function. Of these candidates, 25 are already known, and 60 are new. We present these candidates along with the status of photometric and spectroscopic follow-up.Comment: 25 pages, 16 figures, submitted to Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Societ

Explaining Foreign Holdings of Asia's Debt Securities: The Feldstein-Horioka Paradox Revisited

In this paper, we find that home bias is still present in all economies and regions, especially in the case of short-term debt securities, but that there are substantial variations among economies and regions in the strength of home bias, with the Eurozone economies, the US, and developing Asia showing relatively weak home bias and advanced Asia, especially Japan, showing relatively strong home bias. We then examine trends over time in foreign holdings of debt securities and find that capital has been flowing from the US and the Eurozone economies to both advanced Asia (especially Japan) and developing Asia and that foreign holdings of debt securities have been increasing in advanced as well as developing Asia but for different reasons. The main reason in the case of advanced Asia (especially Japan) appears to be higher riskadjusted returns, whereas the main reason in the case of developing Asia appears to be the growth of debt securities markets combined with relatively weak home bias and (in the case of short-term securities) lower exchange rate volatility. Finally, we find that since the Global Financial Crisis, foreign holdings of debt securities have declined (i.e., that home bias has strengthened) in all economies and regions except developing Asia, where they have increased (except for a temporary decline in 2008) but where their share is still much lower than the optimal share warranted by the capital asset pricing market model