Testing Earth-like atmospheric evolution on exo-Earths through oxygen absorption: required sample sizes and the advantage of age-based target selection

Life has had a dramatic impact on the composition of Earth's atmosphere over time, which suggests that statistical studies of other inhabited planets' atmospheres could reveal how they co-evolve with life. While many evolutionary pathways are possible for inhabited worlds, a possible starting hypothesis is that most of them evolve similarly to Earth, which we propose could lead to a positive "age-oxygen correlation" between the ages of inhabited planets and the fraction which have oxygen-rich atmospheres. We demonstrate that next-generation space observatories currently under consideration could test this hypothesis, but only if the stellar age distribution of the target sample is carefully considered. We explore three possible parameterizations of the age-oxygen correlation, finding that they yield similar results. Finally, we examine how abiotic oxygen sources could affect the results, and discuss how measuring the age-dependence of oxygen could shed light on whether it is a reliable biosignature. Future efforts can expand upon this groundwork by incorporating detailed models of the redox balance of terrestrial planets and its dependence on stellar and planetary properties.Comment: 13 pages, 3 figures, accepted to Ap

On the Mass Function, Multiplicity, and Origins of Wide-Orbit Giant Planets

A major outstanding question regarding the formation of planetary systems is whether wide-orbit giant planets form differently than close-in giant planets. We aim to establish constraints on two key parameters that are relevant for understanding the formation of wide-orbit planets: 1) the relative mass function and 2) the fraction of systems hosting multiple companions. In this study, we focus on systems with directly imaged substellar companions, and the detection limits on lower-mass bodies within these systems. First, we uniformly derive the mass probability distributions of known companions. We then combine the information contained within the detections and detection limits into a survival analysis statistical framework to estimate the underlying mass function of the parent distribution. Finally, we calculate the probability that each system may host multiple substellar companions. We find that 1) the companion mass distribution is rising steeply toward smaller masses, with a functional form of $N\propto M^{-1.3\pm0.3}$, and consequently, 2) many of these systems likely host additional undetected sub-stellar companions. Combined, these results strongly support the notion that wide-orbit giant planets are formed predominantly via core accretion, similar to the better studied close-in giant planets. Finally, given the steep rise in the relative mass function with decreasing mass, these results suggest that future deep observations should unveil a greater number of directly imaged planets.Comment: 19 pages, 10 figures, accepted to Ap

An Integrated Analysis with Predictions on the Architecture of the tau Ceti Planetary System, Including a Habitable Zone Planet

tau Ceti is the closest single Sun-like star to the solar system and hosts a multi-planet system with four confirmed planets. The possible presence of additional planets, especially potentially habitable worlds, remains of great interest. We analyze the structure of the tau Ceti planetary system via the DYNAMITE algorithm, combining information from exoplanet population statistics and orbital dynamics with measurements of this specific system. We also expand DYNAMITE to incorporate radial velocity information. Our analysis suggests the presence of four additional planets, three of which match closely with the periods of three tentative planet candidates reported previously. We also predict at least one more planet candidate with an orbital period between $\sim270-470$ days, in the habitable zone for tau Ceti. Based on the measured $m \sin i$ values of the confirmed planets, we also assess the possible masses and nature of the detected and undetected planets. The least massive planets and candidates are likely to be rocky, while the other planets and candidates could either be rocky or contain a significant gaseous envelope. The RV observable signature from the predicted habitable zone planet candidate would likely be at or just above the noise level in current data, but should be detectable in future extremely high-precision radial velocity and direct imaging studies.Comment: 15 pages, 4 figures, accepted to A

The Transit Light Source Effect: False Spectral Features and Incorrect Densities for M-dwarf Transiting Planets

Transmission spectra are differential measurements that utilize stellar illumination to probe transiting exoplanet atmospheres. Any spectral difference between the illuminating light source and the disk-integrated stellar spectrum due to starspots and faculae will be imprinted in the observed transmission spectrum. However, few constraints exist for the extent of photospheric heterogeneities in M dwarfs. Here, we model spot and faculae covering fractions consistent with observed photometric variabilities for M dwarfs and the associated 0.3-5.5 $\mu$m stellar contamination spectra. We find that large ranges of spot and faculae covering fractions are consistent with observations and corrections assuming a linear relation between variability amplitude and covering fractions generally underestimate the stellar contamination. Using realistic estimates for spot and faculae covering fractions, we find stellar contamination can be more than $10 \times$ larger than transit depth changes expected for atmospheric features in rocky exoplanets. We also find that stellar spectral contamination can lead to systematic errors in radius and therefore the derived density of small planets. In the case of the TRAPPIST-1 system, we show that TRAPPIST-1's rotational variability is consistent with spot covering fractions $f_{spot} = 8^{+18}_{-7}\%$ and faculae covering fractions $f_{fac} = 54^{+16}_{-46}\%$. The associated stellar contamination signals alter transit depths of the TRAPPIST-1 planets at wavelengths of interest for planetary atmospheric species by roughly 1-15 $\times$ the strength of planetary features, significantly complicating $JWST$ follow-up observations of this system. Similarly, we find stellar contamination can lead to underestimates of bulk densities of the TRAPPIST-1 planets of $\Delta(\rho) = -3^{+3}_{-8} \%$, thus leading to overestimates of their volatile contents.Comment: accepted for publication in Ap

A Physical Model-based Correction for Charge Traps in the Hubble Space Telescope's Wide Field Camera 3 Near-IR Detector and Applications to Transiting Exoplanets and Brown Dwarfs

The Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3) near-IR channel is extensively used in time-resolved observations, especially for transiting exoplanet spectroscopy and brown dwarf and directly imaged exoplanet rotational phase mapping. The ramp effect is the dominant source of systematics in the WFC3 for time-resolved observations, which limits its photometric precision. Current mitigation strategies are based on empirical fits and require additional orbits "to help the telescope reach a thermal equilibrium". We show that the ramp effect profiles can be explained and corrected with high fidelity using charge trapping theories. We also present a model for this process that can be used to predict and to correct charge trap systematics. Our model is based on a very small number of parameters that are intrinsic to the detector. We find that these parameters are very stable between the different datasets, and we provide best-fit values. Our model is tested with more than 120 orbits ($\sim40$ visits) of WFC3 observations and is proved to be able to provide near photon noise limited corrections for observations made with both staring and scanning modes of transiting exoplanets as well as for starting-mode observations of brown dwarfs. After our model correction, the light curve of the first orbit in each visit has the same photometric precision as subsequent orbits, so data from the first orbit need no longer be discarded. Near IR arrays with the same physical characteristics (e.g., JWST/NIRCam) may also benefit from the extension of this model, if similar systematic profiles are observed.Comment: 16 pages, 13 figures, accepted to Astronomical Journa

A candidate planetary-mass object with a photoevaporating disk in Orion

In this work, we report the discovery of a candidate planetary-mass object with a photoevaporating protoplanetary disk, Proplyd 133-353, which is near the massive star $\theta^{1}$ Ori C at the center of the Orion Nebula Cluster (ONC). The object was known to have extended emission pointing away from $\theta^{1}$ Ori C, indicating ongoing external photoevaporation. Our near-infrared spectroscopic data suggests that the central source of Proplyd 133-353 is substellar ($\sim$M9.5), might have a mass probably less than 13 Jupiter mass and an age younger than 0.5 Myr. Proplyd 133-353 shows a similar ratio of X-ray luminosity to stellar luminosity to other young stars in the ONC with a similar stellar luminosity, and has a similar proper motion to the mean one of confirmed ONC members. We propose that Proplyd 133-353 was formed in a very low-mass dusty cloud near $\theta^{1}$ Ori C as a second-generation of star formation, which can explain both its young age and the presence of its disk.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures. Accepted for publication in ApJ

Weather on Other Worlds. II. Survey Results: Spots Are Ubiquitous on L and T Dwarfs

We present results from the "Weather on Other Worlds" Spitzer Exploration Science program to investigate photometric variability in L and T dwarfs, usually attributed to patchy clouds. We surveyed 44 L3-T8 dwarfs, spanning a range of $J-K_s$ colors and surface gravities. We find that 14/23 (61%; 95% confidence interval: 41%-78%) of our single L3-L9.5 dwarfs are variable with peak-to-peak amplitudes between 0.2% and 1.5%, and 5/16 (31%; 95% confidence interval: 14%-56%) of our single T0-T8 dwarfs are variable with amplitudes between 0.8% and 4.6%. After correcting for sensitivity, we find that 80% (95% confidence interval: 53%-100%) of L dwarfs vary by >0.2%, and 36% (95% confidence interval: 19%-52%) of T dwarfs vary by >0.4%. Given viewing geometry considerations, we conclude that photospheric heterogeneities causing >0.2% 3-5-micron flux variations are present on virtually all L dwarfs, and probably on most T dwarfs. A third of L dwarf variables show irregular light curves, indicating that L dwarfs may have multiple spots that evolve over a single rotation. Also, approximately a third of the periodicities are on time scales >10 h, suggesting that slowly-rotating brown dwarfs may be common. We observe an increase in the maximum amplitudes over the entire spectral type range, revealing a potential for greater temperature contrasts in T dwarfs than in L dwarfs. We find a tentative association (92% confidence) between low surface gravity and high-amplitude variability among L3-L5.5 dwarfs. Although we can not confirm whether lower gravity is also correlated with a higher incidence of variables, the result is promising for the characterization of directly imaged young extrasolar planets through variability.Comment: 42 pages, 11 figures, 2 tables, accepted by Ap