Operational Currency Mismatch and Firm Level Performance: Evidence from India

This paper looks at the determinants and effects of exchange rate exposure using data on 500 Indian firms over the period 1995-2011. Unlike the existing papers in the literature, we use a measure of `operational` currency exposure based on foreign currency revenues and costs of firms. Among other factors, exchange rate volatility appears as a significant determinant of average firm level exposure with the direction of relationship supporting the presence of `Moral Hazard` in firm’s risk taking behavior. Further large `operational` exposure is associated with significantly lower output growth, profitability and capital expenditure during episodes of large currency depreciation at the firm level. Together this indicates that the policy makers must take into account the incentive effects of their intervention in foreign exchange markets.

Foreign Reserve Adequacy in Sub-Saharan Africa.

This paper looks at the question of adequacy of reserves in sub-Saharan African countries in light of the shocks faced by these countries. Literature on optimal reserves so far has not paid attention to the particular shocks facing low-income countries. We use a two-good endowment economy model facing terms of trade and aid shocks to derive the optimal level of reserves by comparing the cost of holding reserves with their benefits as an insurance against a shock. We find that the optimal level of reserves depends upon the size of these shocks, their probability, and the output cost associated with them.

Real Effective Exchange Rate and Manufacturing Sector Performance: Evidence from Indian firms

We explore the impact of Real Exchange Rate changes on the performance of Indian manufacturing firms over the period 2000-2012. Our empirical analysis shows that real exchange rate movements have a significant impact on Indian firms’ performance through the cost as well as the revenue channel. The impact depends upon the share of imports & exports along with the degree of market power as reflected in the time varying firm level mark up. However, presence of overvaluation negates the beneficial effects of exchange rate appreciation operating through the lower input cost channel. The same cannot be said about the ‘price competitiveness’ effect working through the export channel

Real Effective Exchange Rate and Manufacturing Sector Performance: Evidence from Indian firms

We explore the impact of Real Exchange Rate changes on the performance of Indian manufacturing firms over the period 2000-2012. Our empirical analysis shows that real exchange rate movements have a significant impact on Indian firms’ performance through the cost as well as the revenue channel. The impact depends upon the share of imports & exports along with the degree of market power as reflected in the time varying firm level mark up. However, presence of overvaluation negates the beneficial effects of exchange rate appreciation operating through the lower input cost channel. The same cannot be said about the ‘price competitiveness’ effect working through the export channel

Operational Currency Mismatch and Firm Level Performance: Evidence from India

This paper looks at the determinants and effects of exchange rate exposure using data on 500 Indian firms over the period 1995-2011. Unlike the existing papers in the literature, we use a measure of `operational` currency exposure based on foreign currency revenues and costs of firms. Among other factors, exchange rate volatility appears as a significant determinant of average firm level exposure with the direction of relationship supporting the presence of `Moral Hazard` in firm’s risk taking behavior. Further large `operational` exposure is associated with significantly lower output growth, profitability and capital expenditure during episodes of large currency depreciation at the firm level. Together this indicates that the policy makers must take into account the incentive effects of their intervention in foreign exchange markets

Foreign Reserve Adequacy in Sub-Saharan Africa.

This paper looks at the question of adequacy of reserves in sub-Saharan African countries in light of the shocks faced by these countries. Literature on optimal reserves so far has not paid attention to the particular shocks facing low-income countries. We use a two-good endowment economy model facing terms of trade and aid shocks to derive the optimal level of reserves by comparing the cost of holding reserves with their benefits as an insurance against a shock. We find that the optimal level of reserves depends upon the size of these shocks, their probability, and the output cost associated with them

Foreign Reserve Adequacy in Sub-Saharan Africa.

This paper looks at the question of adequacy of reserves in sub-Saharan African countries in light of the shocks faced by these countries. Literature on optimal reserves so far has not paid attention to the particular shocks facing low-income countries. We use a two-good endowment economy model facing terms of trade and aid shocks to derive the optimal level of reserves by comparing the cost of holding reserves with their benefits as an insurance against a shock. We find that the optimal level of reserves depends upon the size of these shocks, their probability, and the output cost associated with them

Welfare Gains of Aid Indexation in Small Open Economies

Foreign aid flows to poor, aid-dependent economies are highly volatile and pro-cyclical. Shortfalls in aid coincide with shortfalls in GDP and government revenues. This increases the consumption volatility in aid dependent countries, thereby causing substantial welfare losses. This paper finds that indexing aid flows to exogenous shocks like a change in the terms of trade can significantly improve the welfare of aid-dependent country by lowering its output and consumption volatility. Compared to the benchmark specification with stochastic aid flows, indexation of aid flows to terms of trade shocks can reduce the cost of business cycle fluctuations in the recipient country by four percent of permanent consumption. Moreover, use of indexed aid can allow donors to reduce the aid flows by three percent without lowering the level of welfare in the recipient country.Welfare;Terms of trade;Aid flows;Indexation;Low-income developing countries;Small states;terms of trade shocks, trade shocks, tradable goods, capital adjustment, capital stock, commodity prices, risk aversion, access to international capital markets, capital markets, international capital markets, export revenues, access to international capital, exportable goods, exogenous shocks, elasticity of substitution, importable goods, international capital, domestic capital, capital goods, foreign capital, debt service, open economy, moral hazard, aggregate consumption, real appreciation, capital employed, trade shock, capital accumulation, equilibrium model, intermediate inputs, return on capital, export prices, domestic production, value of exports, international trade, transport costs, constant elasticity of substitution, exporting countries, world prices, capital intensity, imported inputs, agricultural commodities, world market, imported goods, debt service payments, export diversification, indexed bonds, access to international financial markets, countries ? volatility, world price, crisis prevention, capital substitution