Another View on U.S. Treasury Term Premiums

The consensus suggests that subdued nominal U.S. Treasury yields on balance since the onset of the global financial crisis primarily reflect exceptionally low, if not occasionally negative, term premiums as opposed to low anticipated short rates. Depressed term premiums plausibly owe to unconventional Federal Reserve policy as well as to net flight-to-quality flows after 2007. However, two strands of evidence raise questions about this story. First, a purely survey-based expected forward term premium measure, as opposed to an approximate spot estimate, has increased rather than decreased in recent years. Second, with respect to the time-series dynamics of factors underlying affine term structure models, simple econometrics of recent data produce not only a more persistent level of the term structure but also a depressed long-run mean, which in turn implies an implausibly low expected short rate path. Strong caveats aside, an implication for central bankers is that unconventional monetary policy measures may have worked in more conventional ways, and an inference for investors is that longer-dated yields embed meaningful compensation for bearing duration risk

Duraatioanalyysin käyttö joukkovelkakirjan korkoriskin arvioinnissa ja hallinnassa

Tutkimuksessa pyritään arvioimaan vaihtoehtoisia tapoja mitata joukkovelkakirjan korkoriskiä. Erityisesti käsitellään duraatioanalyysin käyttöä korkoriskin hallinnassa; yhtäältä verrataan erilaisia duraatiokäsitteitä toisiinsa ja muihin korkoriskin mittareihin, toisaalta kuvataan duraatioanalyysin erilaisia sovellutuksia korkoriskin hallintastrategioissa. Taustaksi esitellään velkakirjaanalyysin perusteita ja korkorakenteen määräytymistä ja dynamiikkaa koskevia teorioita. Lisäksi kuvataan duraatioanalyysin suhdetta portfolioteoriaan, duraatioanalyysin kritiikkiä ja kehittämisyrityksiä sekä empiiristen tutkimusten tuloksia

Time-Varying Expected Returns in International Bond Markets.

This article examines the predictable variation in long-maturity government bond returns in six countries. A small set of global instruments can forecast 4 to 12 percent of monthly variation in excess bond returns. The predictable variation is statistically and economically significant. Moreover, expected excess bond returns are highly correlated across countries. A model with one global risk factor and constant conditional betas can explain international bond return predictability if the risk factor is proxied by the world excess bond return but not if it is proxied by the world excess stock return. Copyright 1995 by American Finance Association.