The impact of fiscal policy on economic activity over the business cycle - evidence from a threshold VAR analysis

Does the state of the business cycle matter for the effects of fiscal policy shocks on GDP? This study analyses quarterly German data from 1976 to 2009 in a threshold SVAR, expanding the SVAR approach by Blanchard and Perotti (2002). In a linear benchmark SVAR, the analysis finds that hiking spending yields a short-term fiscal multiplier of around 0.70, while the fiscal multiplier resulting from an increase in taxes and social security contributions is -0.66. In addition, the threshold model derives fundamentally new insights on the effects of shocks, depending on when in the business cycle they occur, their size and their direction. Most importantly, fiscal spending multipliers are much larger in times of a negative output gap but have only a very limited effect in times of a positive output gap. Discretionary revenue policies, on the other hand, have a generally more limited impact. Our findings have important implications for the optimal fiscal policy mix over different stages of the business cycle. Various robustness checks, including a different threshold specification, do not influence these implications substantially. --fiscal policy,business cycle,nonlinear analysis,fiscal multipliers

Debt and growth: new evidence for the euro area

Against the background of the euro area sovereign debt crisis, our paper investigates the relationship between public debt and economic growth and adds to the existing literature in the following ways. First, we extend the threshold panel methodology by Hansen (1999) to a dynamic setting in order to analyse the nonlinear impact of public debt on GDP growth. Second, we focus on 12 euro area countries for the period 1990-2010, therefore adding to the current discussion on debt sustainability in the euro area. Our empirical results suggest that the shortrun impact of debt on GDP growth is positive and highly statistically significant, but decreases to around zero and loses significance beyond public debt-to-GDP ratios of around 67%. This result is robust throughout most of our specifications, in the dynamic and non-dynamic threshold models alike. For high debt-to-GDP ratios (above 95%), additional debt has a negative impact on economic activity. Furthermore, we can show that the long-term interest rate is subject to increased pressure when the public debt-to-GDP ratio is above 70%, broadly supporting the above findings

PESTO: Proactively Secure Distributed Single Sign-On, or How to Trust a Hacked Server

Single Sign-On (SSO) is becoming an increasingly popular authentication method for users that leverages a trusted Identity Provider (IdP) to bootstrap secure authentication tokens from a single user password. It alleviates some of the worst security issues of passwords, as users no longer need to memorize individual passwords for all service providers, and it removes the burden of these service to properly protect huge password databases. However, SSO also introduces a single point of failure. If compromised, the IdP can impersonate all users and learn their master passwords. To remedy this risk while preserving the advantages of SSO, Agrawal et al. (CCS\u2718) recently proposed a distributed realization termed PASTA (password-authenticated threshold authentication) which splits the role of the IdP across $n$ servers. While PASTA is a great step forward and guarantees security as long as not all servers are corrupted, it uses a rather inflexible corruption model: servers cannot be corrupted adaptively and --- even worse --- cannot recover from corruption. The latter is known as proactive security and allows servers to re-share their keys, thereby rendering all previously compromised information useless. In this work, we improve upon the work of PASTA and propose a distributed SSO protocol with proactive and adaptive security (PESTO), guaranteeing security as long as not all servers are compromised at the same time. We prove our scheme secure in the UC framework which is known to provide the best security guarantees for password-based primitives. The core of our protocol are two new primitives we introduce: partially-oblivious distributed PRFs and a class of distributed signature schemes. Both allow for non-interactive refreshs of the secret key material and tolerate adaptive corruptions. We give secure instantiations based on the gap one-more BDH and RSA assumption respectively, leading to a highly efficient 2-round PESTO protocol. We also present an implementation and benchmark of our scheme in Java, realizing OAuth-compatible bearer tokens for SSO, demonstrating the viability of our approach

How to calibrate fiscal rules : a primer

This note provides guidance on how to calibrate fiscal rules; that is, how to determine the thresholds (ceiling, floor, or target) for specific fiscal aggregates constrained by rules. The note focuses, more specifically, on the calibration of the debt, balance, and expenditure rules

The parasitic lifestyle of an archaeal symbiont

DPANN archaea are a diverse group of microorganisms characterised by small cells and reduced genomes. To date, all cultivated DPANN archaea are ectosymbionts that require direct cell contact with an archaeal host species for growth and survival. However, these interactions and their impact on the host species are poorly understood. Here, we show that a DPANN archaeon (Candidatus Nanohaloarchaeum antarcticus) engages in parasitic interactions with its host (Halorubrum lacusprofundi) that result in host cell lysis. During these interactions, the nanohaloarchaeon appears to enter, or be engulfed by, the host cell. Our results provide experimental evidence for a predatory-like lifestyle of an archaeon, suggesting that at least some DPANN archaea may have roles in controlling host populations and their ecology

Interleukin 36 receptor-inducible matrix metalloproteinase 13 mediates intestinal fibrosis

Background Fibrostenotic disease is a common complication in Crohn’s disease (CD) patients hallmarked by transmural extracellular matrix (ECM) accumulation in the intestinal wall. The prevention and medical therapy of fibrostenotic CD is an unmet high clinical need. Although targeting IL36R signaling is a promising therapy option, downstream mediators of IL36 during inflammation and fibrosis have been incompletely understood. Candidate molecules include matrix metalloproteinases which mediate ECM turnover and are thereby potential targets for anti-fibrotic treatment. Here, we have focused on understanding the role of MMP13 during intestinal fibrosis. Methods We performed bulk RNA sequencing of paired colon biopsies taken from non-stenotic and stenotic areas of patients with CD. Corresponding tissue samples from healthy controls and CD patients with stenosis were used for immunofluorescent (IF) staining. MMP13 gene expression was analyzed in cDNA of intestinal biopsies from healthy controls and in subpopulations of patients with CD in the IBDome cohort. In addition, gene regulation on RNA and protein level was studied in colon tissue and primary intestinal fibroblasts from mice upon IL36R activation or blockade. Finally, in vivo studies were performed with MMP13 deficient mice and littermate controls in an experimental model of intestinal fibrosis. Ex vivo tissue analysis included Masson’s Trichrome and Sirius Red staining as well as evaluation of immune cells, fibroblasts and collagen VI by IF analysis. Results Bulk RNA sequencing revealed high upregulation of MMP13 in colon biopsies from stenotic areas, as compared to non-stenotic regions of patients with CD. IF analysis confirmed higher levels of MMP13 in stenotic tissue sections of CD patients and demonstrated αSMA+ and Pdpn+ fibroblasts as a major source. Mechanistic experiments demonstrated that MMP13 expression was regulated by IL36R signaling. Finally, MMP13 deficient mice, as compared to littermate controls, developed less fibrosis in the chronic DSS model and showed reduced numbers of αSMA+ fibroblasts. These findings are consistent with a model suggesting a molecular axis involving IL36R activation in gut resident fibroblasts and MMP13 expression during the pathogenesis of intestinal fibrosis. Conclusion Targeting IL36R-inducible MMP13 could evolve as a promising approach to interfere with the development and progression of intestinal fibrosis

MRSA prevalence in european healthcare settings: a review

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>During the past two decades, methicillin-resistant <it>Staphylococcus aureus </it>(MRSA) has become increasingly common as a source of nosocomial infections. Most studies of MRSA surveillance were performed during outbreaks, so that results are not applicable to settings in which MRSA is endemic. This paper gives an overview of MRSA prevalence in hospitals and other healthcare institutions in non-outbreak situations in Western Europe.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A keyword search was conducted in the Medline database (2000 through June 2010). Titles and abstracts were screened to identify studies on MRSA prevalence in patients in non-outbreak situations in European healthcare facilities. Each study was assessed using seven quality criteria (outcome definition, time unit, target population, participants, observer bias, screening procedure, swabbing sites) and categorized as 'good', 'fair', or 'poor'.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>31 observational studies were included in the review. Four of the studies were of good quality. Surveillance screening of MRSA was performed in long-term care (11 studies) and acute care (20 studies). Prevalence rates varied over a wide range, from less than 1% to greater than 20%. Prevalence in the acute care and long-term care settings was comparable. The prevalence of MRSA was expressed in various ways - the percentage of MRSA among patients (range between 1% and 24%), the percentage of MRSA among <it>S. aureus </it>isolates (range between 5% and 54%), and as the prevalence density (range between 0.4 and 4 MRSA cases per 1,000 patient days). The screening policy differed with respect to time points (on admission or during hospital stay), selection criteria (all admissions or patients at high risk for MRSA) and anatomical sampling sites.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This review underlines the methodological differences between studies of MRSA surveillance. For comparisons between different healthcare settings, surveillance methods and outcome calculations should be standardized.</p

Prehabilitation of elderly frail or pre-frail patients prior to elective surgery (PRAEP-GO): study protocol for a randomized, controlled, outcome assessor-blinded trial

Background: Frailty is expressed by a reduction in physical capacity, mobility, muscle strength, and endurance. (Pre-) frailty is present in up to 42% of the older surgical population, with an increased risk for peri- and postoperative complications. Consequently, these patients often suffer from a delayed or limited recovery, loss of autonomy and quality of life, and a decrease in functional and cognitive capacities. Since frailty is modifiable, prehabilitation may improve the physiological reserves of patients and reduce the care dependency 12 months after surgery. Methods: Patients >= 70 years old scheduled for elective surgery or intervention will be recruited in this multicenter, randomized controlled study, with a target of 1400 participants with an allocation ratio of 1:1. The intervention consists of (1) a shared decision-making process with the patient, relatives, and an interdisciplinary and interprofessional team and (2) a 3-week multimodal, individualized prehabilitation program including exercise therapy, nutritional intervention, mobility or balance training, and psychosocial interventions and medical assessment. The frequency of the supervised prehabilitation is 5 times/week for 3 weeks. The primary endpoint is defined as the level of care dependency 12 months after surgery or intervention. Discussion: Prehabilitation has been proven to be effective for different populations, including colorectal, transplant, and cardiac surgery patients. In contrast, evidence for prehabilitation in older, frail patients has not been clearly established. To the best of our knowledge, this is currently the largest prehabilitation study on older people with frailty undergoing general elective surgery

The Effects of Legislated Tax Changes in Germany

This paper studies the short-run macroeconomic effects of legislated tax changes in Germany using a vector autoregression (VAR) approach. Identification of the tax shock follows the narrative approach recently proposed by Romer and Romer (2010). Results indicate a moderate, but statistically significant, reduction in output as well as a strong offsetting monetary policy reaction following announcement of the tax policy. In response to a 1 percent increase in the tax-to-GDP ratio, the peak output reduction is about 0.7 percent. Distinguishing between anticipation and implementation effects suggests that tax changes affect GDP prior to actual implementation, whereas effects around the implementation period are insignificant, which is arguably due to the offsetting, forward-looking monetary policy reaction