Rural health centres, communities and malaria case detection in Zambia using mobile telephones: a means to detect potential reservoirs of infection in unstable transmission conditions.

BACKGROUND: Effective malaria control depends on timely acquisition of information on new cases, their location and their frequency so as to deploy supplies, plan interventions or focus attention on specific locations appropriately to intervene and prevent an upsurge in transmission. The process is known as active case detection, but because the information is time sensitive, it is difficult to carry out. In Zambia, the rural health services are operating effectively and for the most part are provided with adequate supplies of rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) as well as effective drugs for the diagnosis and treatment of malaria. The tests are administered to all prior to treatment and appropriate records are kept. Data are obtained in a timely manner and distribution of this information is important for the effective management of malaria control operations. The work reported here involves combining the process of positive diagnoses in rural health centres (passive case detection) to help detect potential outbreaks of malaria and target interventions to foci where parasite reservoirs are likely to occur. METHODS: Twelve rural health centres in the Choma and Namwala Districts were recruited to send weekly information of rapid malaria tests used and number of positive diagnoses to the Malaria Institute at Macha using mobile telephone SMS. Data were entered in excel, expressed as number of cases per rural health centre and distributed weekly to interested parties. RESULTS: These data from each of the health centres which were mapped using geographical positioning system (GPS) coordinates were used in a time sensitive manner to plot the patterns of malaria case detection in the vicinity of each location. The data were passed on to the appropriate authorities. The seasonal pattern of malaria transmission associated with local ecological conditions can be seen in the distribution of cases diagnosed. CONCLUSIONS: Adequate supplies of RDT are essential in health centres and the system can be expanded throughout the country to support strategic targeting of interventions by the National Malaria Control Programme. Participation by the health centre staff was excellent

Identifying malaria vector breeding habitats with remote sensing data and terrain-based landscape indices in Zambia

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Malaria, caused by the parasite <it>Plasmodium falciparum</it>, is a significant source of morbidity and mortality in southern Zambia. In the Mapanza Chiefdom, where transmission is seasonal, <it>Anopheles arabiensis </it>is the dominant malaria vector. The ability to predict larval habitats can help focus control measures.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A survey was conducted in March-April 2007, at the end of the rainy season, to identify and map locations of water pooling and the occurrence anopheline larval habitats; this was repeated in October 2007 at the end of the dry season and in March-April 2008 during the next rainy season. Logistic regression and generalized linear mixed modeling were applied to assess the predictive value of terrain-based landscape indices along with LandSat imagery to identify aquatic habitats and, especially, those with anopheline mosquito larvae.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Approximately two hundred aquatic habitat sites were identified with 69 percent positive for anopheline mosquitoes. Nine species of anopheline mosquitoes were identified, of which, 19% were <it>An. arabiensis</it>. Terrain-based landscape indices combined with LandSat predicted sites with water, sites with anopheline mosquitoes and sites specifically with <it>An. arabiensis</it>. These models were especially successful at ruling out potential locations, but had limited ability in predicting which anopheline species inhabited aquatic sites. Terrain indices derived from 90 meter Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) digital elevation data (DEM) were better at predicting water drainage patterns and characterizing the landscape than those derived from 30 m Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) DEM.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The low number of aquatic habitats available and the ability to locate the limited number of aquatic habitat locations for surveillance, especially those containing anopheline larvae, suggest that larval control maybe a cost-effective control measure in the fight against malaria in Zambia and other regions with seasonal transmission. This work shows that, in areas of seasonal malaria transmission, incorporating terrain-based landscape models to the planning stages of vector control allows for the exclusion of significant portions of landscape that would be unsuitable for water to accumulate and for mosquito larvae occupation. With increasing free availability of satellite imagery such as SRTM and LandSat, the development of satellite imagery-based prediction models is becoming more accessible to vector management coordinators.</p

Early detection of malaria foci for targeted interventions in endemic southern Zambia

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Zambia has achieved significant reductions in the burden of malaria through a strategy of "scaling-up" effective interventions. Progress toward ultimate malaria elimination will require sustained prevention coverage and further interruption of transmission through active strategies to identify and treat asymptomatic malaria reservoirs. A surveillance system in Zambia's Southern Province has begun to implement such an approach. An early detection system could be an additional tool to identify foci of elevated incidence for targeted intervention.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Based on surveillance data collected weekly from 13 rural health centres (RHCs) divided into three transmission zones, early warning thresholds were created following a technique successfully implemented in Thailand. Alert levels were graphed for all 52 weeks of a year using the mean and 95% confidence interval upper limit of a Poisson distribution of the weekly diagnosed malaria cases for every available week of historic data (beginning in Aug, 2008) at each of the sites within a zone. Annually adjusted population estimates for the RHC catchment areas served as person-time of weekly exposure. The zonal threshold levels were validated against the incidence data from each of the 13 respective RHCs.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Graphed threshold levels for the three zones generally conformed to observed seasonal incidence patterns. Comparing thresholds with historic weekly incidence values, the overall percentage of aberrant weeks ranged from 1.7% in Mbabala to 36.1% in Kamwanu. For most RHCs, the percentage of weeks above threshold was greater during the high transmission season and during the 2009 year compared to 2010. 39% of weeks breaching alert levels were part of a series of three or more consecutive aberrant weeks.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The inconsistent sensitivity of the zonal threshold levels impugns the reliability of the alert system. With more years of surveillance data available, individual thresholds for each RHC could be calculated and compared to the technique outlined here. Until then, "aberrant" weeks during low transmission seasons, and during high transmission seasons at sites where the threshold level is less sensitive, could feasibly be followed up for household screening. Communities with disproportionate numbers of aberrant weeks could be reviewed for defaults in the scaling-up intervention coverage.</p

Remotely-sensed, nocturnal, dew point correlates with malaria transmission in Southern Province, Zambia: a time-series study

Background: Plasmodium falciparum transmission has decreased significantly in Zambia in the last decade. The malaria transmission is influenced by environmental variables. Incorporation of environmental variables in models of malaria transmission likely improves model fit and predicts probable trends in malaria disease. This work is based on the hypothesis that remotely-sensed environmental factors, including nocturnal dew point, are associated with malaria transmission and sustain foci of transmission during the low transmission season in the Southern Province of Zambia. Methods: Thirty-eight rural health centres in Southern Province, Zambia were divided into three zones based on transmission patterns. Correlations between weekly malaria cases and remotely-sensed nocturnal dew point, nocturnal land surface temperature as well as vegetation indices and rainfall were evaluated in time-series analyses from 2012 week 19 to 2013 week 36. Zonal as well as clinic-based, multivariate, autoregressive, integrated, moving average ( ARIMAX) models implementing environmental variables were developed to model transmission in 2011 week 19 to 2012 week 18 and forecast transmission in 2013 week 37 to week 41. Results: During the dry, low transmission season significantly higher vegetation indices, nocturnal land surface temperature and nocturnal dew point were associated with the areas of higher transmission. Environmental variables improved ARIMAX models. Dew point and normalized differentiated vegetation index were significant predictors and improved all zonal transmission models. In the high-transmission zone, this was also seen for land surface temperature. Clinic models were improved by adding dew point and land surface temperature as well as normalized differentiated vegetation index. The mean average error of prediction for ARIMAX models ranged from 0.7 to 33.5%. Forecasts of malaria incidence were valid for three out of five rural health centres; however, with poor results at the zonal level. Conclusions: In this study, the fit of ARIMAX models improves when environmental variables are included. There is a significant association of remotely-sensed nocturnal dew point with malaria transmission. Interestingly, dew point might be one of the factors sustaining malaria transmission in areas of general aridity during the dry season

Changing individual-level risk factors for malaria with declining transmission in southern Zambia: a cross-sectional study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Malaria elimination will require that both symptomatic- and asymptomatic-infected persons be identified and treated. However, well-characterized, individual-level risk factors for malaria may not be valid in regions with declining malaria transmission. Changes in individual-level correlates of malaria infection were evaluated over three years in a region of declining malaria transmission in southern Zambia.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Malaria surveys were conducted in two study areas within the catchment area of Macha Hospital, Zambia in 2007 and 2008/2009. A random sample of households was identified from a digitized satellite image of the study areas. Cross-sectional surveys were conducted approximately five times throughout the year in each of the two study areas. During study visits, adults and caretakers of children were administered questionnaires and a blood sample was obtained for a rapid diagnostic test (RDT) for malaria.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In the 2007 study area, 330 individuals were surveyed. 40.9% of participants lived in a household with at least one insecticide-treated bed net (ITN); however, only 45.2% reported sleeping under the ITN. 23.9% of participants were RDT positive. Correlates of RDT positivity included younger age, the presence of symptoms, testing during the rainy season, using an open water source, and not sleeping under an ITN. In the 2008 study area, 435 individuals were surveyed. 77.0% of participants lived in a household with at least one ITN; however, only 56.4% reported sleeping under the ITN. 8.1% of participants were RDT positive. RDT positivity was negatively correlated with the presence of symptoms within the last two weeks but positively correlated with documented fever. In 2009, 716 individuals were surveyed in the same area as 2008. 63.7% of participants lived in a household with at least one ITN; however, only 57.7% reported sleeping under the ITN. 1.5% of participants were RDT positive. Only self-reported fever was significantly correlated with RDT positivity.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>With declining malaria prevalence, few individual-level characteristics were correlated with RDT positivity. This lack of correlation with individual characteristics hampers identification of individuals infected with malaria. Strategies based on ecological or environmental risk factors may be needed to target control efforts and achieve further reductions and elimination.</p

A method of active case detection to target reservoirs of asymptomatic malaria and gametocyte carriers in a rural area in Southern Province, Zambia

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Asymptomatic reservoirs of malaria parasites are common yet are difficult to detect, posing a problem for malaria control. If control programmes focus on mosquito control and treatment of symptomatic individuals only, malaria can quickly resurge if interventions are scaled back. Foci of parasite populations must be identified and treated. Therefore, an active case detection system that facilitates detection of asymptomatic parasitaemia and gametocyte carriers was developed and tested in the Macha region in southern Zambia.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Each week, nurses at participating rural health centres (RHC) communicated the number of rapid diagnostic test (RDT) positive malaria cases to a central research team. During the dry season when malaria transmission was lowest, the research team followed up each positive case reported by the RHC by a visit to the homestead. The coordinates of the location were obtained by GPS and all consenting residents completed a questionnaire and were screened for malaria using thick blood film, RDT, nested-PCR, and RT-PCR for asexual and sexual stage parasites. Persons who tested positive by RDT were treated with artemether/lumefantrine (Coartem^®). Data were compared with a community-based study of randomly selected households to assess the prevalence of asymptomatic parasitaemia in the same localities in September 2009.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In total, 186 and 141 participants residing in 23 case and 24 control homesteads, respectively, were screened. In the case homesteads for which a control population was available (10 of the 23), household members of clinically diagnosed cases had a 8.0% prevalence of malaria using PCR compared to 0.7% PCR positive individuals in the control group (p = 0.006). The case and control groups had a gametocyte prevalence of 2.3% and 0%, respectively but the difference was not significant (p = 0.145).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This pilot project showed that active case detection is feasible and can identify reservoirs of asymptomatic infection. A larger sample size, data over multiple low transmission seasons, and in areas with different transmission dynamics are needed to further validate this approach.</p

Use of remote sensing to identify spatial risk factors for malaria in a region of declining transmission: a cross-sectional and longitudinal community survey

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The burden of malaria has decreased dramatically within the past several years in parts of sub-Saharan Africa. Further malaria control will require targeted control strategies based on evidence of risk. The objective of this study was to identify environmental risk factors for malaria transmission using remote sensing technologies to guide malaria control interventions in a region of declining burden of malaria.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Satellite images were used to construct a sampling frame for the random selection of households enrolled in prospective longitudinal and cross-sectional surveys of malaria parasitaemia in Southern Province, Zambia. A digital elevation model (DEM) was derived from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission version 3 DEM and used for landscape characterization, including landforms, elevation, aspect, slope, topographic wetness, topographic position index and hydrological models of stream networks.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A total of 768 individuals from 128 randomly selected households were enrolled over 21 months, from the end of the rainy season in April 2007 through December 2008. Of the 768 individuals tested, 117 (15.2%) were positive by malaria rapid diagnostic test (RDT). Individuals residing within 3.75 km of a third order stream were at increased risk of malaria. Households at elevations above the baseline elevation for the region were at decreasing risk of having RDT-positive residents. Households where new infections occurred were overlaid on a risk map of RDT positive households and incident infections were more likely to be located in high-risk areas derived from prevalence data. Based on the spatial risk map, targeting households in the top 80^thpercentile of malaria risk would require malaria control interventions directed to only 24% of the households.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Remote sensing technologies can be used to target malaria control interventions in a region of declining malaria transmission in southern Zambia, enabling a more efficient use of resources for malaria elimination.</p