Short-Run Regional Forecasts: Spatial Models through Varying Cross-Sectional and Temporal Dimensions

In any economic analysis, regions or municipalities should not be regarded as isolated spatial units, but rather as highly interrelated small open economies. These spatial interrelations must be considered also when the aim is to forecast economic variables. For example, policy makers need accurate forecasts of the unemployment evolution in order to design short- or long-run local welfare policies. These predictions should then consider the spatial interrelations and dynamics of regional unemployment. In addition, a number of papers have demonstrated the improvement in the reliability of long-run forecasts when spatial dependence is accounted for. We estimate a heterogeneouscoefficients dynamic panel model employing a spatial filter in order to account for spatial heterogeneity and/or spatial autocorrelation in both the levels and the dynamics of unemployment, as well as a spatial vector-autoregressive (SVAR) model. We compare the short-run forecasting performance of these methods, and in particular, we carry out a sensitivity analysis in order to investigate if different number and size of the administrative regions influence their relative forecasting performance. We compute short-run unemployment forecasts in two countries with different administrative territorial divisions and data frequency: Switzerland (26 regions, monthly data for 34 years) and Spain (47 regions, quarterly data for 32 years)

Massive stars as thermonuclear reactors and their explosions following core collapse

Nuclear reactions transform atomic nuclei inside stars. This is the process of stellar nucleosynthesis. The basic concepts of determining nuclear reaction rates inside stars are reviewed. How stars manage to burn their fuel so slowly most of the time are also considered. Stellar thermonuclear reactions involving protons in hydrostatic burning are discussed first. Then I discuss triple alpha reactions in the helium burning stage. Carbon and oxygen survive in red giant stars because of the nuclear structure of oxygen and neon. Further nuclear burning of carbon, neon, oxygen and silicon in quiescent conditions are discussed next. In the subsequent core-collapse phase, neutronization due to electron capture from the top of the Fermi sea in a degenerate core takes place. The expected signal of neutrinos from a nearby supernova is calculated. The supernova often explodes inside a dense circumstellar medium, which is established due to the progenitor star losing its outermost envelope in a stellar wind or mass transfer in a binary system. The nature of the circumstellar medium and the ejecta of the supernova and their dynamics are revealed by observations in the optical, IR, radio, and X-ray bands, and I discuss some of these observations and their interpretations.Comment: To be published in " Principles and Perspectives in Cosmochemistry" Lecture Notes on Kodai School on Synthesis of Elements in Stars; ed. by Aruna Goswami & Eswar Reddy, Springer Verlag, 2009. Contains 21 figure

Quantization of Midisuperspace Models

We give a comprehensive review of the quantization of midisuperspace models. Though the main focus of the paper is on quantum aspects, we also provide an introduction to several classical points related to the definition of these models. We cover some important issues, in particular, the use of the principle of symmetric criticality as a very useful tool to obtain the required Hamiltonian formulations. Two main types of reductions are discussed: those involving metrics with two Killing vector fields and spherically symmetric models. We also review the more general models obtained by coupling matter fields to these systems. Throughout the paper we give separate discussions for standard quantizations using geometrodynamical variables and those relying on loop quantum gravity inspired methods.Comment: To appear in Living Review in Relativit

Metabolic syndrome is linked to a mild elevation in liver aminotransferases in diabetic patients with undetectable non-alcoholic fatty liver disease by ultrasound

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Despite ongoing findings on the relationship between elevated levels of alanine and aspartate aminotransferases (ALT and AST) and metabolic syndrome (MetS), this association in diabetic patients without a known cause for liver enzymes elevation other than diabetes, per se, remains unclear. In this study, we aimed to assess the relationship between circulating liver enzymes and MetS in a relatively large sample of patients with diabetes.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A total of 670 diabetic patients, without known causes of hepatocellular injury, were enrolled. Patients with ultrasonographic signs of fatty liver disease were not included. Fasting blood samples were obtained and biochemical characteristics were measured. MetS was defined according to the international diabetes federation criteria.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Serum ALT and AST were significantly higher in patients with MetS (p < 0.001). High waist circumference and low HDL-cholesterol were significantly associated with elevated ALT (OR = 2.56 and 2.0, respectively) and AST (OR = 2.23 and 2.21, respectively). ALT and AST were significantly associated with MetS (OR = 2.17 and 2.31, respectively). These associations remained significant after multiple adjustments for age, sex, BMI, diabetes duration, HbA1c and medications. There was a significant (p < 0.01) positive association between the number of the MetS features and the level of ALT or AST.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In diabetic patients without ultrasonographic evidence of fatty liver, elevated aminotransferases are independently associated with MetS. Despite negative ultrasound results in diabetic patients with MetS, the serum level of liver aminotransferases may be elevated and should be more thoroughly monitored.</p

Androgen receptor expression predicts breast cancer survival: the role of genetic and epigenetic events

Background: Breast cancer outcome, including response to therapy, risk of metastasis and survival, is difficult to predict using currently available methods, highlighting the urgent need for more informative biomarkers. Androgen receptor (AR) has been implicated in breast carcinogenesis however its potential to be an informative biomarker has yet to be fully explored. In this study, AR protein levels were determined in a cohort of 73 Grade III invasive breast ductal adenocarcinomas

Adoptive T-cell therapy improves treatment of canine non–Hodgkin lymphoma post chemotherapy

Clinical observations reveal that an augmented pace of T-cell recovery after chemotherapy correlates with improved tumor-free survival, suggesting the add-back of T cells after chemotherapy may improve outcomes. To evaluate adoptive immunotherapy treatment for B-lineage non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL), we expanded T cells from client-owned canines diagnosed with NHL on artificial antigen presenting cells (aAPC) in the presence of human interleukin (IL)-2 and IL-21. Graded doses of autologous T cells were infused after CHOP chemotherapy and persisted for 49 days, homed to tumor, and significantly improved survival. Serum thymidine kinase changes predicted T-cell engraftment, while anti-tumor effects correlated with neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratios and granzyme B expression in manufactured T cells. Therefore, chemotherapy can be used to modulate infused T-cell responses to enhance anti-tumor effects. The companion canine model has translational implications for human immunotherapy which can be readily exploited since clinical-grade canine and human T cells are propagated using identical approaches

IL-33-mediated protection against experimental cerebral malaria is linked to induction of Type 2 innate lymphoid cells, M2 macrophages and regulatory T cells

Author Summary Cerebral malaria (CM) caused by the parasite Plasmodium sp . is a fatal disease, especially in children. Currently there is no effective treatment. We report here our investigation on the role of a recently discovered cytokine IL-33, in treating experimental cerebral malaria (ECM) in the susceptible C57BL/6 mice. IL-33 protects the mice against ECM. The protection is accompanied by a reduction of Th1 response and the enhancement of type 2 cytokine response. We also found that IL-33 mediates its protective effect by inducing a population of type 2 innate lymphoid cells (ILC2), which then polarize macrophages to alternatively-activated phenotypes (M2). M2 in turn expand regulatory T cells (Tregs) which suppress the deleterious Th1 response. Our report therefore reveals hitherto unrecognised mechanisms of the regulation of ECM and provide a novel function of IL-33

Glutamate Uptake Triggers Transporter-Mediated GABA Release from Astrocytes

Background: Glutamate (Glu) and c-aminobutyric acid (GABA) transporters play important roles in regulating neuronal activity. Glu is removed from the extracellular space dominantly by glial transporters. In contrast, GABA is mainly taken up by neurons. However, the glial GABA transporter subtypes share their localization with the Glu transporters and their expression is confined to the same subpopulation of astrocytes, raising the possibility of cooperation between Glu and GABA transport processes. Methodology/Principal Findings: Here we used diverse biological models both in vitro and in vivo to explore the interplay between these processes. We found that removal of Glu by astrocytic transporters triggers an elevation in the extracellular level of GABA. This coupling between excitatory and inhibitory signaling was found to be independent of Glu receptor-mediated depolarization, external presence of Ca2+ and glutamate decarboxylase activity. It was abolished in the presence of non-transportable blockers of glial Glu or GABA transporters, suggesting that the concerted action of these transporters underlies the process. Conclusions/Significance: Our results suggest that activation of Glu transporters results in GABA release through reversal of glial GABA transporters. This transporter-mediated interplay represents a direct link between inhibitory and excitatory neurotransmission and may function as a negative feedback combating intense excitation in pathological conditions such as epilepsy or ischemia

Gene expression meta-analysis supports existence of molecular apocrine breast cancer with a role for androgen receptor and implies interactions with ErbB family

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Pathway discovery from gene expression data can provide important insight into the relationship between signaling networks and cancer biology. Oncogenic signaling pathways are commonly inferred by comparison with signatures derived from cell lines. We use the Molecular Apocrine subtype of breast cancer to demonstrate our ability to infer pathways directly from patients' gene expression data with pattern analysis algorithms.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We combine data from two studies that propose the existence of the Molecular Apocrine phenotype. We use quantile normalization and XPN to minimize institutional bias in the data. We use hierarchical clustering, principal components analysis, and comparison of gene signatures derived from Significance Analysis of Microarrays to establish the existence of the Molecular Apocrine subtype and the equivalence of its molecular phenotype across both institutions. Statistical significance was computed using the Fasano & Franceschini test for separation of principal components and the hypergeometric probability formula for significance of overlap in gene signatures. We perform pathway analysis using LeFEminer and Backward Chaining Rule Induction to identify a signaling network that differentiates the subset. We identify a larger cohort of samples in the public domain, and use Gene Shaving and Robust Bayesian Network Analysis to detect pathways that interact with the defining signal.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We demonstrate that the two separately introduced ER^-breast cancer subsets represent the same tumor type, called Molecular Apocrine breast cancer. LeFEminer and Backward Chaining Rule Induction support a role for AR signaling as a pathway that differentiates this subset from others. Gene Shaving and Robust Bayesian Network Analysis detect interactions between the AR pathway, EGFR trafficking signals, and ErbB2.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>We propose criteria for meta-analysis that are able to demonstrate statistical significance in establishing molecular equivalence of subsets across institutions. Data mining strategies used here provide an alternative method to comparison with cell lines for discovering seminal pathways and interactions between signaling networks. Analysis of Molecular Apocrine breast cancer implies that therapies targeting AR might be hampered if interactions with ErbB family members are not addressed.</p