EU sovereign ratings lags prior and after the great recession

Mestrado em Economia Monetária e FinanceiraEstudamos as variáveis que mais afetam a alteração dos ratings soberanos na UE para as agências de classificação de crédito Fitch e S&P. Utilizando um modelo de painel probit, avaliamos o impacto de diferentes variáveis econômicas e políticas nas mudanças gerais dos ratings soberanos, aumentamos e diminuímos antes e depois da Grande Recessão. Mais importante, também analisamos o tempo de espera para cada agência de classificação nesses dois períodos, cobrindo especificamente 1997: 12-2018: 12. Nossos resultados mostram que as variáveis econômicas e políticas são consideradas diferentemente nos dois períodos e que o atraso na liderança das mudanças de rating diminui após a crise, especialmente quando essa mudança é uma diminuição no rating. Ainda, trazemos alguns conceitos comportamentais para o raciocínio dessa mudança nas variáveis e comportamento nos lags.We study the variables that most affect the sovereign ratings change in the EU for Credit Rating Agencies Fitch and S&P. Using a panel probit model we assess the impact of different economic and political variables on sovereign ratings general change, increase and decrease before and after the Great Recession. Most importantly, we also analyse the lead lag time for each rating agency in these two periods, covering specifically 1997:12-2018:12. Our results show that economic and political variables are considered differently in both periods and that the lead lag for rating changes decreases after the crisis, especially when this change is a decrease in the rating. We then enrich the discussion by bringing some behavioural concepts into the reasoning of that change in the variables and lead lag behaviour.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Voronoi-Like grid systems for tall buildings

In the context of innovative patterns for tall buildings, Voronoi tessellation is certainly worthy of interest. It is an irregular biomimetic pattern based on the Voronoi diagram, which derives from the direct observation of natural structures. The paper is mainly focused on the application of this nature-inspired typology to load-resisting systems for tall buildings, investigating the potential of non-regular grids on the global mechanical response of the structure. In particular, the study concentrates on the periodic and non-periodic Voronoi tessellation, describing the procedure for generating irregular patterns through parametric modeling and illustrates the homogenization-based approach proposed in the literature for dealing with unconventional patterns. To appreciate the consistency of preliminary design equations, numerical and analytical results are compared. Moreover, since the mechanical response of the building strongly depends on the parameters of the microstructure, the paper focuses on the influence of the grid arrangement on the global lateral stiffness, therefore on the displacement constraint, which is an essential requirement in the design of tall buildings. To this end, five case studies, accounting for different levels of irregularity and relative density, are generated and analyzed through static and modal analysis in the elastic field. In addition, the paper focuses on the mechanical response of a pattern with gradual rarefying density to evaluate its applicability to tall buildings. Displacement based optimizations are carried out to assess the adequate member cross sections that provide the maximum contribution in restraining deflection with the minimum material weight. The results obtained for all the models generated are compared and discussed to outline a final evaluation of the Voronoi structures. In addition to the wind loading scenario, the efficiency of the building model with varying density Voronoi pattern, is tested for seismic ground motion through a response spectrum analysis. The potential applications of Voronoi tessellation for tall buildings is demonstrated for both regions with high wind load conditions and areas of high seismicity

One Monument, One Town, Two Ideologies: The Monument to the Victory of Bolzano-Bozen

This article offers a critical reading of the first major attempt to publicly come to terms with the presence of an invasive and ideologically charged fascist monument in the border town of Bolzano-Bozen, in South Tyrol, Italy. The ‘Monument to Victory’, commissioned by Mussolini and inaugurated in 1928 to celebrate the annexation of the province after WWI, is the symbolic centre of a discourse that divides the town along an ethno-linguistic axis. To this day, this creates ongoing political tensions, fostering extreme views in both Italian and German speaking communities. To neutralise this symbolic power while preserving its supposed artistic value, a permanent exhibition inaugurated in 2014 inside the artefact tries to offer an historical explanation and contextualisation, and foster a new, inclusive and democratic discourse around the past. This article discusses this exhibition as a counter-monument, which directly challenges the ideology of the original. In interpreting the scientific aims and choices of the historians involved, and the architectural and curatorial strategies, it questions their dialogical underpinning discourse. The results lay bare an agenda to establish the site as a new monologic myth of origin for the democratic town of the future; one that aims at producing a ‘democratic and reconciled’ citizen through a prescriptive perlocutionary experience

Indirect effects of an aid program: how do liquidity injections affect non-eligibles' consumption?

Aid programs in developing countries are likely to affect both the treated and the non-treated households living in the targeted areas. Studies that focus on the treatment effecton the treated may fail to capture important spillover effects. We exploit the unique designof an aid program's experimental trial to identify its indirect effect on consumption for non-eligible households living in treated areas. We find that this effect is positive, and that itoccurs through changes in the insurance and credit markets: non-eligible households receivemore transfers, and borrow more when hit by a negative idiosyncratic shock, because of theprogram liquidity injection; thus they can reduce their precautionary savings. We also testfor general equilibrium effects in the local labor and goods markets; we find no significantchanges in labor income and prices, while there is a reduction in earnings from sales ofagricultural products, which are now consumed rather than sold. We show that this classof aid programs has important positive externalities; thus their overall effect is larger thanthe effect on the treated. Our results confirm that a key identifying assumption - that thetreatment has no effect on the non-treated - is likely to be violated in similar policy designs. Aid programs in developing countries are likely to affect both the treated and the non-treated households living in the targeted areas. Studies that focus on the treatment effecton the treated may fail to capture important spillover effects. We exploit the unique designof an aid program's experimental trial to identify its indirect effect on consumption for non-eligible households living in treated areas. We find that this effect is positive, and that itoccurs through changes in the insurance and credit markets: non-eligible households receivemore transfers, and borrow more when hit by a negative idiosyncratic shock, because of theprogram liquidity injection; thus they can reduce their precautionary savings. We also testfor general equilibrium effects in the local labor and goods markets; we find no significantchanges in labor income and prices, while there is a reduction in earnings from sales ofagricultural products, which are now consumed rather than sold. We show that this classof aid programs has important positive externalities; thus their overall effect is larger thanthe effect on the treated. Our results confirm that a key identifying assumption - that thetreatment has no effect on the non-treated - is likely to be violated in similar policy designs

Oportunidades: Program Effect on Consumption, Low Participation, and Methodological Issues

In this paper we estimate the effect of the Mexican conditional cash transfer program, Oportunidades, on consumption, and we explore some issues related to participation to the program and to the estimation of treatment effects. We discuss the comparability of treatment and control areas, provide evidence that the expected transfer may not be sufficiently high to induce many eligible households to participate, and find positive effects on consumption.program evaluation, consumption, matching, Oportunidades

The Effect of Ownership and Competitive Pressure on Firm Performance in Transition Countries: Micro Evidence from Bulgaria, Romania and Poland

This paper uses a unique representative firm level data set to analyse the effect of domestic and international competitive pressure and ownership changes in three emerging economies, Bulgaria Poland and Romania. Our main findings can be summarized as follows: Domestic competitive pressure, measured by market structure, and increased import penetration are associated with higher firm performance in Poland irrespective of the ownership structure of firms. Furthermore the positive effects of increased import competition are reinforced for foreign owned firms. In contrast, in Bulgaria and Romania, increased import penetration is associated with lower firm performance, while there is some evidence that more competitive market structures are associated with higher total factor productivity. However, these effects depend on the ownership structure of firms, which suggests the existence of complementarities between competitive pressure and ownership changes. The results also indicate that privatisation has positive effects on firm performance. In particular, domestic private firms and foreign owned firms outperform state owned firms. Furthermore, there is evidence that foreign owned firms do better than domestically owned private firms especially in Bulgaria and Poland. The results on ownership are somewhat weaker for Romania.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39818/3/wp434.pd

Development of Test-Analysis Models (TAM) for correlation of dynamic test and analysis results

The primary objective of structural analysis of aerospace applications is to obtain a verified finite element model (FEM). The verified FEM can be used for loads analysis, evaluate structural modifications, or design control systems. Verification of the FEM is generally obtained as the result of correlating test and FEM models. A test analysis model (TAM) is very useful in the correlation process. A TAM is essentially a FEM reduced to the size of the test model, which attempts to preserve the dynamic characteristics of the original FEM in the analysis range of interest. Numerous methods for generating TAMs have been developed in the literature. The major emphasis of this paper is a description of the procedures necessary for creation of the TAM and the correlation of the reduced models with the FEM or the test results. Herein, three methods are discussed, namely Guyan, Improved Reduced System (IRS), and Hybrid. Also included are the procedures for performing these analyses using MSC/NASTRAN. Finally, application of the TAM process is demonstrated with an experimental test configuration of a ten bay cantilevered truss structure

The NA62 RICH detector

The RICH detector of the NA62 experiment is proposed for pion - muon separation and to contribute to the first level of the trigger. The design parameters of the detector and the results of test beams performed at CERN in 2007 and 2009 with a prototype are presented.Comment: 3 pages, 2 figures, To appear in the proceedings of 12th Topical Seminar on Innovative Particle and Radiation Detectors (IPRD10), Siena, Italy, 7-10 June 201

Village economies and the structure of extended family networks

This paper documents how the structure of extended family networks in rural Mexico relates to the poverty and inequality of the village of residence. Using the Hispanic naming convention, we construct within-village extended family networks in 504 poor rural villages. Family networks are larger (both in the number of members and as a share of the village population) and out-migration is lower the poorer and the less unequal the village of residence. Our results are consistent with the extended family being a source of informal insurance to its members

Aid and Migration : An Analysis of the Impact of Progresa on the Timing and Size of Labour Migration

This paper models the short and medium-run impact of aid on migration, considering alternatively the effect of unconditional and conditional cash transfers to financially constrained households. Data from the evaluation of a Mexican development program, Progresa, are used to estimate the effect of the potential grant size on migration. The empirical analysis is consistent with model prediction. It shows that the program is associated with an increase in international migration, which is also a positive function of size of potential transfer. The grant may loosen financial constraints. At the same time, fine-tuned conditional grants targeting prospective migrants (in the form of secondary school subsidies) reduce the short-term migration probability. As regards medium-term migration, secondary school beneficiaries are not more likely to migrate than the control group after they complete the subsidised education cycle