What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth?

A lot, including a few things you may not expect. Previous studies find that the term spread forecasts GDP but these regressions are unconstrained and do not model regressor endogeneity. We build a dynamic model for GDP growth and yields that completely characterizes expectations of GDP. The model does not permit arbitrage. Contrary to previous findings, we predict that the short rate has more predictive power than any term spread. We confirm this finding by forecasting GDP out-of-sample. The model also recommends the use of lagged GDP and the longest maturity yield to measure slope. Greater efficiency enables the yield-curve model to produce superior out-of-sample GDP forecasts than unconstrained OLS at all horizons.

Do Macro Variables, Asset Markets or Surveys Forecast Inflation Better?

Surveys do! We examine the forecasting power of four alternative methods of forecasting U.S. inflation out-of-sample: time series ARIMA models; regressions using real activity measures motivated from the Phillips curve; term structure models that include linear, non-linear, and arbitrage-free specifications; and survey-based measures. We also investigate several optimal methods of combining forecasts. Our results show that surveys outperform the other forecasting methods and that the term structure specifications perform relatively poorly. We find little evidence that combining forecasts using means or medians, or using optimal weights with prior information produces superior forecasts to survey information alone. When combining forecasts, the data consistently places the highest weights on survey information.

A hybrid systematic narrative review of instruments measuring home-based care nurses\u27 competency

Aim: The aim of the study was to identify and synthesize the contents and the psychometric properties of the existing instruments measuring home-based care (HBC) nurses\u27 competencies. Design: A hybrid systematic narrative review was performed. Review Methods: The eligible studies were reviewed to identify the competencies measured by the instruments for HBC nurses. The psychometric properties of instruments in development and psychometric testing design studies were also examined. The methodological quality of the studies was evaluated using the Medical Education Research Study Quality Instrument and COSMIN checklist accordingly. Data Sources: Relevant studies were searched on CINAHL, MEDLINE (via PubMed), EMBASE, PsychINFO and Scopus from 2000 to 2022. The search was limited to full-text items in the English language. Results: A total of 23 studies reporting 24 instruments were included. 12 instruments were adopted or modified by the studies while the other 12 were developed and psychometrically tested by the studies. None of the instruments encompassed all of the 10 home-based nursing care competencies identified in an earlier study. The two most frequently measured competencies were the management of health conditions, and critical thinking and problem-solving skills, while the two least measured competencies were quality and safety, and technological literacy. The content and structural validity of most instruments were inadequate since the adopted instruments were not initially designed or tested among HBC nurses. Conclusion: This review provides a consolidation of existing instruments that were used to assess HBC nurses\u27 competencies. The instruments were generally not comprehensive, and the content and structural validity were limited. Nonetheless, the domains, items and approaches to instrument development could be adopted to develop and test a comprehensive competency instrument for home-based nursing care practice in the future. Impact: This review consolidated instruments used to measure home-based care nurses\u27 competency. The instruments were often designed for ward-based care nurses hence a comprehensive and validated home-based nursing care competency instrument is needed. Nurses, researchers and nursing leaders could consider the competency instruments identified in this review to measure nurses\u27 competencies, while a home-based nursing care competency scale is being developed. Patient or Public Contribution: No patient or public contribution was required in this review