Initial impact of SARS-Cov-2 vaccination on healthcare workers in Italy. Update on the 28th of march 2021

In Italy, the COVID-19 vaccination campaign started in December 2020 with the vaccination of healthcare workers (HCW). To analyse the real-life impact that vaccination is having on this population group, we measured the association between week of diagnosis and HCW status using log-binomial regression. By the week 22–28 March, we observed a 74% reduction (PPR 0.26; 95% CI 0.22–0.29) in the proportion of cases reported as HCW and 81% reduction in the proportion of symptomatic cases reported as HCW, compared with the week with the lowest proportion of cases among HCWs prior to the vaccination campaign (31 August-7 September). The reduction, both in relative and absolute terms, of COVID-19 cases in HCWs that started around 30 days after the start of the vaccination campaign suggest that COVID-19 vaccines are being effective in preventing infection in this group

Co-circulation of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha and Gamma variants in Italy, February and March 2021

Background. Several SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOC) have emerged through 2020 and 2021. There is need for tools to estimate the relative transmissibility of emerging variants of SARS-CoV-2 with respect to circulating strains.AimWe aimed to assess the prevalence of co-circulating VOC in Italy and estimate their relative transmissibility.Methods. We conducted two genomic surveillance surveys on 18 February and 18 March 2021 across the whole Italian territory covering 3,243 clinical samples and developed a mathematical model that describes the dynamics of co-circulating strains.Results. The Alpha variant was already dominant on 18 February in a majority of regions/autonomous provinces (national prevalence: 54%) and almost completely replaced historical lineages by 18 March (dominant across Italy, national prevalence: 86%). We found a substantial proportion of the Gamma variant on 18 February, almost exclusively in central Italy (prevalence: 19%), which remained similar on 18 March. Nationally, the mean relative transmissibility of Alpha ranged at 1.55-1.57 times the level of historical lineages (95% CrI: 1.45-1.66). The relative transmissibility of Gamma varied according to the assumed degree of cross-protection from infection with other lineages and ranged from 1.12 (95% CrI: 1.03-1.23) with complete immune evasion to 1.39 (95% CrI: 1.26-1.56) for complete cross-protection.Conclusion. We assessed the relative advantage of competing viral strains, using a mathematical model assuming different degrees of cross-protection. We found substantial co-circulation of Alpha and Gamma in Italy. Gamma was not able to outcompete Alpha, probably because of its lower transmissibility

COVID-19 integrated surveillance in Italy: Outputs and related activities

OBJECTIVES: to describe the integrated surveillance system of COVID-19 in Italy, to illustrate the outputs used to return epidemiological information on the spread of the epidemic to the competent public health bodies and to the Italian popu-lation, and to describe how the surveillance data contributes to the ongoing weekly regional monitoring and risk assessment system. METHODS: the COVID-19 integrated surveillance system is the result of a close and continuous collaboration between the Italian National Institute of Health (ISS), the Italian Ministry of Health, and the regional and local health authorities. Through a web platform, it collects individual data of laboratory confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection and gathers information on their residence, laboratory diagnosis, hospital-isation, clinical status, risk factors, and outcome. Results, for different levels of aggregation and risk categories, are published daily and weekly on the ISS website, and made avail-able to national and regional public health authorities; these results contribute one of the information sources of the regional monitoring and risk assessment system. RESULTS: the COVID-19 integrated surveillance system mon-itors the space-time distribution of cases and their character-istics. Indicators used in the weekly regional monitoring and risk assessment system include process indicators on com-pleteness and results indicators on weekly trends of newly di-agnosed cases per Region. CONCLUSIONS: the outputs of the integrated surveillance system for COVID-19 provide timely information to health authorities and to the general population on the evolution of the epidemic in Italy. They also contribute to the continuous re-assessment of risk related to transmission and impact of the epidemic thus contributing to the management of COV-ID-19 in Italy

Epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 cases and estimates of the reproductive numbers 1 month into the epidemic, Italy, 28 January to 31 March 2020

Background: On 20 February 2020, a locally acquired coronavirus disease (COVID-19) case was detected in Lombardy, Italy. This was the first signal of ongoing transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in the country. The number of cases in Italy increased rapidly and the country became the first in Europe to experience a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak. Aim: Our aim was to describe the epidemiology and transmission dynamics of the first COVID- 19 cases in Italy amid ongoing control measures. Methods: We analysed all RT-PCR-confirmed COVID-19 cases reported to the national integrated surveillance system until 31 March 2020. We provide a descriptive epidemiological summary and estimate the basic and net reproductive numbers by region. Results: Of the 98,716 cases of COVID-19 analysed, 9,512 were healthcare workers. Of the 10,943 reported COVID- 19-associated deaths (crude case fatality ratio: 11.1%) 49.5% occurred in cases older than 80 years. Male sex and age were independent risk factors for COVID- 19 death. Estimates of R0 varied between 2.50 (95% confidence interval (CI): 2.18-2.83) in Tuscany and 3.00 (95% CI: 2.68-3.33) in Lazio. The net reproduction number Rt in northern regions started decreasing immediately after the first detection. Conclusion: The COVID-19 outbreak in Italy showed a clustering onset similar to the one in Wuhan, China. R0 at 2.96 in Lombardy combined with delayed detection explains the high case load and rapid geographical spread. Overall, Rt in Italian regions showed early signs of decrease, with large diversity in incidence, supporting the importance of combined non-pharmacological control measures

Impact of tiered restrictions on human activities and the epidemiology of the second wave of COVID-19 in Italy

To counter the second COVID-19 wave in autumn 2020, the Italian government introduced a system of physical distancing measures organized in progressively restrictive tiers (coded as yellow, orange, and red) imposed on a regional basis according to real-time epidemiological risk assessments. We leverage the data from the Italian COVID-19 integrated surveillance system and publicly available mobility data to evaluate the impact of the three-tiered regional restriction system on human activities, SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility and hospitalization burden in Italy. The individuals’ attendance to locations outside the residential settings was progressively reduced with tiers, but less than during the national lockdown against the first COVID-19 wave in the spring. The reproduction number R(t) decreased below the epidemic threshold in 85 out of 107 provinces after the introduction of the tier system, reaching average values of about 0.95-1.02 in the yellow tier, 0.80-0.93 in the orange tier and 0.74-0.83 in the red tier. We estimate that the reduced transmissibility resulted in averting about 36% of the hospitalizations between November 6 and November 25, 2020. These results are instrumental to inform public health efforts aimed at preventing future resurgence of cases

Epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 cases in non-Italian nationals notified to the Italian surveillance system

BACKGROUND: International literature suggests that disadvantaged groups are at higher risk of morbidity and mortality from SARS-CoV-2 infection due to poorer living/working conditions and barriers to healthcare access. Yet, to date, there is no evidence of this disproportionate impact on non-national individuals, including economic migrants, short-term travellers and refugees. METHODS: We analyzed data from the Italian surveillance system of all COVID-19 laboratory-confirmed cases tested positive from the beginning of the outbreak (20th of February) to the 19th of July 2020. We used multilevel negative-binomial regression models to compare the case fatality and the rate of admission to hospital and intensive care unit (ICU) between Italian and non-Italian nationals. The analysis was adjusted for differences in demographic characteristics, pre-existing comorbidities, and period of diagnosis. RESULTS: We analyzed 213 180 COVID-19 cases, including 15 974 (7.5%) non-Italian nationals. We found that, compared to Italian cases, non-Italian cases were diagnosed at a later date and were more likely to be hospitalized {[adjusted rate ratio (ARR)=1.39, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.33-1.44]} and admitted to ICU (ARR=1.19, 95% CI: 1.07-1.32), with differences being more pronounced in those coming from countries with lower human development index (HDI). We also observed an increased risk of death in non-Italian cases from low-HDI countries (ARR=1.32, 95% CI: 1.01-1.75). CONCLUSIONS: A delayed diagnosis in non-Italian cases could explain their worse outcomes compared to Italian cases. Ensuring early access to diagnosis and treatment to non-Italians could facilitate the control of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and improve health outcomes in all people living in Italy, regardless of nationality

Sex differences in clinical phenotype and transitions of care among individuals dying of COVID-19 in Italy

Background: Among the unknowns posed by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak, the role of biological sex to explain disease susceptibility and progression is still a matter of debate, with limited sex-disaggregated data available. Methods: A retrospective analysis was performed to assess if sex differences exist in the clinical manifestations and transitions of care among hospitalized individuals dying with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection in Italy (February 27–June 11, 2020). Clinical characteristics and the times from symptoms’ onset to admission, nasopharyngeal swab, and death were compared between sexes. Adjusted multivariate analysis was performed to identify the clinical features associated with male sex. Results: Of the 32,938 COVID-19-related deaths that occurred in Italy, 3517 hospitalized and deceased individuals with COVID-19 (mean 78 ± 12 years, 33% women) were analyzed. At admission, men had a higher prevalence of ischemic heart disease (adj-OR = 1.76, 95% CI 1.39–2.23), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (adj-OR = 1.7, 95% CI 1.29–2.27), and chronic kidney disease (adj-OR = 1.48, 95% CI 1.13–1.96), while women were older and more likely to have dementia (adj-OR = 0.73, 95% CI 0.55–0.95) and autoimmune diseases (adj-OR = 0.40, 95% CI 0.25–0.63), yet both sexes had a high level of multimorbidity. The times from symptoms’ onset to admission and nasopharyngeal swab were slightly longer in men despite a typical acute respiratory illness with more frequent fever at the onset. Men received more often experimental therapy (adj-OR = 2.89, 95% CI 1.45–5.74) and experienced more likely acute kidney injury (adj-OR = 1.47, 95% CI 1.13–1.90). Conclusions: Men and women dying with COVID-19 had different clinical manifestations and transitions of care. Identifying sex-specific features in individuals with COVID-19 and fatal outcome might inform preventive strategies