Exploring the landscape of seasonal forecast provision by Global Producing Centres

Despite the growing demand for seasonal climate forecasts, there is limited understanding of the landscape of organisations providing this critically important climate information. This study attempts to fill this gap by presenting results from an in-depth dialogue with the organisations entrusted with the provision of seasonal forecasts by the World Meteorological Organisation, known as the Global Producing Centres for Long-Range Forecasts (GPCs-LRF). The results provide an overview and detailed description of the organisational setup, mandate, target audience of GPCs-LRF and their interactions with other centres. Looking beyond the GPCs-LRF to other centres providing seasonal forecasts, some of which have been rapidly taking prominent places in this landscape, revealed a heterogeneous and still maturing community of practice, with an increasing number of players and emerging efforts to produce multi-model ensemble forecasts. The dialogues pointed at the need to not only improve climate models and produce more skilful climate forecasts, but also to improve the transformation of the forecasts into useful and usable products. Finally, using the lenses of credibility, salience and legitimacy, we explore ways to bridge the fragmentation of the information offered across the organisations considered and the people involved in the delivery and use of seasonal forecasts. The paper concludes by suggesting ways to address the boundary crossing between science, policy and society in the context of seasonal climate prediction.We would like to thank all the study participants for their valuable contributions and feedback to the paper, and Diana Urquiza for designing the figure. An earlier version of this paper was presented in the workshop “Quality of Climate Information for Adaptation” in October 2020. This research has been supported by the EU H2020 project FOCUS-Africa (GA 869575).Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Editorial: L2 acquisition of motion events: Crossing boundaries into unexplored territories

The field of motion events has received a growing interest in the last decades, after Talmy's (1985, 1991) and Slobin's (1991, 1996) seminal works. A myriad of publications examine aspects of the semantics of motion in different languages. In the field of Second Language (L2) Acquisition, research into motion events has explored different language combinations, types of cross-linguistic influence and types of learners. The main aim of this Research Topic is to delve into unexplored areas of research in motion events. In this sense, this Research Topic presents eight papers that offer an innovative look into motion events. The novelty of these studies emerges from new proposed methodologies, different theoretical perspectives, or an outlook on motion from underrepresented languages in the field. Regarding the latter, one of our main aims in this Research Topic was to showcase motion from the lens of a variety of languages other than English. We firmly believe in the importance of linguistic diversity in order to gain a better understanding of L2 Acquisition processes and to this end, ten languages are represented here, either as L2 or L1, namely Danish, English, French, German, Mandarin Chinese, Mapudungun, Spanish, Swedish, Tunisian Arabic, and Uyghur. The paragraphs that follow offer a brief summary of the works included in this Research Topic

Prenatal Insecticide Exposures and Birth Weight and Length among an Urban Minority Cohort

We reported previously that insecticide exposures were widespread among minority women in New York City during pregnancy and that levels of the organophosphate chlorpyrifos in umbilical cord plasma were inversely associated with birth weight and length. Here we expand analyses to include additional insecticides (the organophosphate diazinon and the carbamate propoxur), a larger sample size (n = 314 mother–newborn pairs), and insecticide measurements in maternal personal air during pregnancy as well as in umbilical cord plasma at delivery. Controlling for potential confounders, we found no association between maternal personal air insecticide levels and birth weight, length, or head circumference. For each log unit increase in cord plasma chlorpyrifos levels, birth weight decreased by 42.6 g [95% confidence interval (CI), −81.8 to −3.8, p = 0.03] and birth length decreased by 0.24 cm (95% CI, −0.47 to −0.01, p = 0.04). Combined measures of (ln)cord plasma chlorpyrifos and diazinon (adjusted for relative potency) were also inversely associated with birth weight and length (p < 0.05). Birth weight averaged 186.3 g less (95% CI, −375.2 to −45.5) among newborns with the highest compared with lowest 26% of exposure levels (p = 0.01). Further, the associations between birth weight and length and cord plasma chlorpyrifos and diazinon were highly significant (p ≤ 0.007) among newborns born before the 2000–2001 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s regulatory actions to phase out residential use of these insecticides. Among newborns born after January 2001, exposure levels were substantially lower, and no association with fetal growth was apparent (p > 0.8). The propoxur metabolite 2-isopropoxyphenol in cord plasma was inversely associated with birth length, a finding of borderline significance (p = 0.05) after controlling for chlorpyrifos and diazinon. Results indicate that prenatal chlorpyrifos exposures have impaired fetal growth among this minority cohort and that diazinon exposures may have contributed to the effects. Findings support recent regulatory action to phase out residential uses of the insecticides

How decadal predictions entered the climate services arena: an example from the agriculture sector

Predicting the variations in climate for the coming 1–10 years is of great interest for decision makers, as this time horizon coincides with the strategic planning of stakeholders from climate-vulnerable sectors such as agriculture. This study attempts to illustrate the potential value of decadal predictions in the development of climate services by establishing interactions and collaboration with stakeholders concerned with food production and security. Building on our experience from interacting with users and the increased understanding of their needs gathered over the years through our participation in various European activities and initiatives, we developed a decadal forecast product that provides tailored and user-friendly information about multi-year dry conditions for the coming five years over global wheat harvesting regions. This study revealed that the coproduction approach, where the interaction between the user and climate service provider is established at an early stage of forecast product development, is a fundamental step to successfully provide useful and ultimately actionable information to the interested stakeholders. The study also provides insights that shed light on the reasons for the delayed entry of decadal predictions in the climate services discourse and practice, obtained from surveying climate scientists and discussing with decadal prediction experts. Finally, it shows the key challenges that this new source of climate information still faces.We would like to acknowledge financial support from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation programme (MED-GOLD; Grant No. 776467, EUCP; Grant No. 776613 and FOCUS-Africa; Grant No. 869575). This study has also received support from C3S_34c (contract number: ECMWF/COPERNICUS/2019/ C3S_34c_DWD) of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) operated by ECMWF. We thank Angel G. Muñoz and an anonymous reviewer for their invaluable comments on the manuscript. BSM acknowledges additional financial support from the Marie Sklodowska-Curie fellowship (Grant No. 713673) and from a fellowship of ’la Caixa’ Foundation (ID 100010434). The fellowship code is LCF/BQ/IN17/11620038.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Ambient Metals, Elemental Carbon, and Wheeze and Cough in New York City Children through 24 Months of Age

Rationale: The effects of exposure to specific components of ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5), including metals and elemental carbon (EC), have not been fully characterized in young children. Objectives: To compare temporal associations among PM2.5; individual metal constituents of ambient PM2.5, including nickel (Ni), vanadium (V), and zinc (Zn); and EC and longitudinal reports of respiratory symptoms through 24 months of age. Methods: Study participants were selected from the Columbia Center for Children's Environmental Health birth cohort recruited in New York City between 1998 and 2006. Respiratory symptom data were collected by questionnaire every 3 months through 24 months of age. Ambient pollutant data were obtained from state-operated stationary monitoring sites located within the study area. For each subject, 3-month average inverse-distance weighted concentrations of Ni, V, Zn, EC, and PM2.5 were calculated for each symptom-reporting period based on the questionnaire date and the preceding 3 months. Associations between pollutants and symptoms were characterized using generalized additive mixed effects models, adjusting for sex, ethnicity, environmental tobacco smoke exposure, and calendar time. Measurements and Main Results: Increases in ambient Ni and V concentrations were associated significantly with increased probability of wheeze. Increases in EC were associated significantly with cough during the cold/flu season. Total PM2.5 was not associated with wheeze or cough. Conclusions: These results suggest that exposure to ambient metals and EC from heating oil and/or traffic at levels characteristic of urban environments may be associated with respiratory symptoms among very young children

Towards Useful Decadal Climate Services

The decadal time scale (∼1–10 years) bridges the gap between seasonal predictions and longer-term climate projections. It is a key planning time scale for users in many sectors as they seek to adapt to our rapidly changing climate. While significant advances in using initialized climate models to make skillful decadal predictions have been made in the last decades, including coordinated international experiments and multimodel forecast exchanges, few user-focused decadal climate services have been developed. Here we highlight the potential of decadal climate services using four case studies from a project led by four institutions that produce real-time decadal climate predictions. Working in co-development with users in agriculture, energy, infrastructure, and insurance sectors, four prototype climate service products were developed. This study describes the challenge of trying to match user needs with the current scientific capability. For example, the use of large ensembles (achieved via a multisystem approach) and skillfully predicted large-scale environmental conditions, are found to improve regional predictions, particularly in midlatitudes. For each climate service, a two-page “product sheet” template was developed that provides users with both a concise probabilistic forecast and information on retrospective performance. We describe the development cycle, where valuable feedback was obtained from a “showcase event” where a wider group of sector users were engaged. We conclude that for society to take full and rapid advantage of useful decadal climate services, easier and more timely access to decadal climate prediction data are required, along with building wider community expertise in their use.This study received support from the C3S_34c contract (ECMWF/COPERNICUS/2019/C3S_34c_DWD) of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) operated by ECMWF. DS, AS, and HT were supported by the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme funded by BEIS and Defra. AP, KP, and BF were funded by the Deutscher Wetterdienst.Peer Reviewed"Article signat per 22 autors/es: Nick Dunstone, Julia Lockwood, Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali, Katja Reinhardt, Eirini E. Tsartsali, Panos J. Athanasiadis, Alessio Bellucci, Anca Brookshaw, Louis-Philippe Caron, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Barbara Früh, Nube González-Reviriego, Silvio Gualdi, Leon Hermanson, Stefano Materia, Andria Nicodemou, Dario Nicolì, Klaus Pankatz, Andreas Paxian, Adam Scaife, Doug Smith, and Hazel E. Thornton"Postprint (published version

Within- and Between-Home Variability in Indoor-Air Insecticide Levels during Pregnancy among an Inner-City Cohort from New York City

BACKGROUND: Residential insecticide use is widespread in the United States, but few data are available on the persistence and variability in levels in the indoor environment. OBJECTIVE: The study aim was to assess within- and between-home variability in indoor-air insecticides over the final 2 months of pregnancy among a cohort of African-American and Dominican women from New York City. METHODS: Women not employed outside the home were enrolled between February 2001 and May 2004 (n = 102); 9 insecticides and an adjuvant were measured in 48-hr personal air samples and 2-week integrated indoor air samples collected sequentially for 7.0 ± 2.3 weeks (n = 337 air samples). RESULTS: Sixty-one percent of the women reported using pest control during the air samplings. Chlorpyrifos, diazinon, and propoxur were detected in 99–100% of personal and indoor samples (range, 0.4–641 ng/m(3)). Piperonyl butoxide (a pyrethroid adjuvant) was detected in 45.5–68.5% (0.2–608 ng/m(3)). There was little within-home variability and no significant difference in air concentrations within homes over time (p ≥ 0.2); between-home variability accounted for 88% of the variance in the indoor air levels of propoxur, 92% in chlorpyrifos, 94% in diazinon, and 62% in piperonyl butoxide (p < 0.001). Indoor and maternal personal air insecticide levels were highly correlated (r = 0.7–0.9, p < 0.001). Diazinon and chlorpyrifos levels declined 5-fold between 2001 and 2004 but were detected in all homes 1.5 and 2.5 years, respectively, after the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency ban on their residential use. CONCLUSION: Results showed that the insecticides were persistent in the home with little variability in air concentrations over the 2 months and contributed to chronic maternal inhalation exposures during pregnancy