Describing the longitudinal course of major depression using Markov models: Data integration across three national surveys

BACKGROUND: Most epidemiological studies of major depression report period prevalence estimates. These are of limited utility in characterizing the longitudinal epidemiology of this condition. Markov models provide a methodological framework for increasing the utility of epidemiological data. Markov models relating incidence and recovery to major depression prevalence have been described in a series of prior papers. In this paper, the models are extended to describe the longitudinal course of the disorder. METHODS: Data from three national surveys conducted by the Canadian national statistical agency (Statistics Canada) were used in this analysis. These data were integrated using a Markov model. Incidence, recurrence and recovery were represented as weekly transition probabilities. Model parameters were calibrated to the survey estimates. RESULTS: The population was divided into three categories: low, moderate and high recurrence groups. The size of each category was approximated using lifetime data from a study using the WHO Mental Health Composite International Diagnostic Interview (WMH-CIDI). Consistent with previous work, transition probabilities reflecting recovery were high in the initial weeks of the episodes, and declined by a fixed proportion with each passing week. CONCLUSION: Markov models provide a framework for integrating psychiatric epidemiological data. Previous studies have illustrated the utility of Markov models for decomposing prevalence into its various determinants: incidence, recovery and mortality. This study extends the Markov approach by distinguishing several recurrence categories

Lifetime economic impact of the burden of childhood stunting attributable to maternal psychosocial risk factors in 137 low/middle-income countries

Introduction: The first 1000 days of life is a period of great potential and vulnerability. In particular, physical growth of children can be affected by the lack of access to basic needs as well as psychosocial factors, such as maternal depression. The objectives of the present study are to: (1) quantify the burden of childhood stunting in low/middle-income countries attributable to psychosocial risk factors; and (2) estimate the related lifetime economic costs. Methods: A comparative risk assessment analysis was performed with data from 137 low/middle-income countries throughout Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, North Africa and the Middle East, and sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of stunting prevalence, defined as <-2 SDs from the median height for age according to the WHO Child Growth Standards, and the number of cases attributable to low maternal education, intimate partner violence (IPV), maternal depression and orphanhood were calculated. The joint effect of psychosocial risk factors on stunting was estimated. The economic impact, as reflected in the total future income losses per birth cohort, was examined. Results: Approximately 7.2 million cases of stunting in low/middle-income countries were attributable to psychosocial factors. The leading risk factor was maternal depression with 3.2 million cases attributable. Maternal depression also demonstrated the greatest economic cost at $14.5 billion, followed by low maternal education ($10.0 billion) and IPV ($8.5 billion). The joint cost of these risk factors was$29.3 billion per birth cohort. Conclusion: The cost of neglecting these psychosocial risk factors is significant. Improving access to formal secondary school education for girls may offset the risk of maternal depression, IPV and orphanhood. Focusing on maternal depression may play a key role in reducing the burden of stunting. Overall, addressing psychosocial factors among perinatal women can have a significant impact on child growth and well-being in the developing world

A translational approach to studying preterm labour

Preterm labour continues to be a major contributor to neonatal and infant morbidity. Recent data from the USA indicate that the number of preterm deliveries (including those associated with preterm labour) has risen in the last 20 years by 30%. This increase is despite considerable efforts to introduce new therapies for the prevention and treatment of preterm labour and highlights the need to assess research in this area from a fresh perspective. In this paper we discuss i) the limitations of our knowledge concerning prediction, prevention and treatment of preterm labour and ii) future multidisciplinary strategies for improving our approach

Chlamydia trachomatis infection during pregnancy associated with preterm delivery: a population-based prospective cohort study

Chlamydia trachomatis infection is the most prevalent bacterial sexually transmitted infection and may influence pregnancy outcome. This study was conducted to assess the effect of chlamydial infection during pregnancy on premature delivery and birthweight. Pregnant women attending a participating midwifery practice or antenatal clinic between February 2003 and January 2005 were eligible for the study. From 4,055 women self-administered questionnaires and urine samples, tested by PCR, were analysed for C. trachomatis infection. Pregnancy outcomes were obtained from midwives and hospital registries. Gestational ages and birthweights were analysed for 3,913 newborns. The C. trachomatis prevalence was 3.9%, but varied by age and socio-economic background. Chlamydial infection was, after adjustment for potential confounders, associated with preterm delivery before 32 weeks (OR 4.35 [95% CI 1.3, 15.2]) and 35 weeks gestation (OR 2.66 [95% CI 1.1, 6.5]), but not with low birthweight. Of all deliveries before 32 weeks and 35 weeks gestation 14.9% [95% CI 4.5, 39.5] and 7.4% [95% CI 2.5, 20.1] was attributable to C. trachomatis infection. Chlamydia trachomatis infection contributes significantly to early premature delivery and should be considered a public health problem, especially in young women and others at increased risk of C. trachomatis infection

Infant Safety during and after Maternal Valacyclovir Therapy in Conjunction with Antiretroviral HIV-1 Prophylaxis in a Randomized Clinical Trial

<div><h3>Background</h3><p>Maternal administration of the acyclovir prodrug valacyclovir is compatible with pregnancy and breastfeeding. However, the safety profile of prolonged infant and maternal exposure to acyclovir in the context of antiretrovirals (ARVs) for prevention of mother-to-child HIV-1 transmission (PMTCT) has not been described.</p> <h3>Methods</h3><p>Pregnant Kenyan women co-infected with HIV-1/HSV-2 with CD4 counts > 250 cells/mm³ were enrolled at 34 weeks gestation and randomized to twice daily 500 mg valacyclovir or placebo until 12 months postpartum. Women received zidovudine from 28 weeks gestation and single dose nevirapine was given to women and infants at the time of delivery for PMTCT. Infant blood was collected at 6 weeks for creatinine and ALT. Breast milk specimens were collected at 2 weeks postpartum from 71 women in the valacyclovir arm; acyclovir levels were determined for a random sample of 44 (62%) specimens. Fisher’s Exact and Wilcoxon rank-sum tests were used for analysis.</p> <h3>Results</h3><p>One hundred forty-eight women were randomized and 146 mother-infant pairs were followed postpartum. PMTCT ARVs were administered to 98% of infants and all mothers. Valacyclovir was not associated with infant or maternal toxicities or adverse events, and no congenital malformations were observed. Infant creatinine levels were all normal (< 0.83 mg/dl) and median creatinine (median 0.50 mg/dl) and infant growth did not differ between study arms. Acyclovir was detected in 35 (80%) of 44 breast milk samples collected at 2 weeks postpartum. Median and maximum acyclovir levels were 2.62 and 10.15 mg/ml, respectively (interquartile range 0.6–4.19).</p> <h3>Conclusions</h3><p>Exposure to PMTCT ARVs and acyclovir after maternal administration of valacyclovir during pregnancy and postpartum to women co-infected with HIV-1/HSV-2 was not associated with an increase in infant or maternal toxicities or adverse events.</p> <h3>Trial Registration</h3><p>ClinicalTrials.gov <a href="http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00530777">NCT00530777</a></p> </div

Simulation studies of age-specific lifetime major depression prevalence

BACKGROUND: The lifetime prevalence (LTP) of Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) is the proportion of a population having met criteria for MDD during their life up to the time of assessment. Expectation holds that LTP should increase with age, but this has not usually been observed. Instead, LTP typically increases in the teenage years and twenties, stabilizes in adulthood and then begins to decline in middle age. Proposed explanations for this pattern include: a cohort effect (increasing incidence in more recent birth cohorts), recall failure and/or differential mortality. Declining age-specific incidence may also play a role. METHODS: We used a simulation model to explore patterns of incidence, recall and mortality in relation to the observed pattern of LTP. Lifetime prevalence estimates from the 2002 Canadian Community Health Survey, Mental Health and Wellbeing (CCHS 1.2) were used for model validation and calibration. RESULTS: Incidence rates predicting realistic values for LTP in the 15-24 year age group (where mortality is unlikely to substantially influence prevalence) lead to excessive LTP later in life, given reasonable assumptions about mortality and recall failure. This suggests that (in the absence of cohort effects) incidence rates decline with age. Differential mortality may make a contribution to the prevalence pattern, but only in older age categories. Cohort effects can explain the observed pattern, but only if recent birth cohorts have a much higher (approximately 10-fold greater) risk and if incidence has increased with successive birth cohorts over the past 60-70 years. CONCLUSIONS: The pattern of lifetime prevalence observed in cross-sectional epidemiologic studies seems most plausibly explained by incidence that declines with age and where some respondents fail to recall past episodes. A cohort effect is not a necessary interpretation of the observed pattern of age-specific lifetime prevalence

Natural Splice Variant of MHC Class I Cytoplasmic Tail Enhances Dendritic Cell-Induced CD8+ T-Cell Responses and Boosts Anti-Tumor Immunity

Dendritic cell (DC)-mediated presentation of MHC class I (MHC-I)/peptide complexes is a crucial first step in the priming of CTL responses, and the cytoplasmic tail of MHC-I plays an important role in modulating this process. Several species express a splice variant of the MHC-I tail that deletes exon 7-encoding amino acids (Δ7), including a conserved serine phosphorylation site. Previously, it has been shown that Δ7 MHC-I molecules demonstrate extended DC surface half-lives, and that mice expressing Δ7-Kb generate significantly augmented CTL responses to viral challenge. Herein, we show that Δ7-Db-expressing DCs stimulated significantly more proliferation and much higher cytokine secretion by melanoma antigen-specific (Pmel-1) T cells. Moreover, in combination with adoptive Pmel-1 T-cell transfer, Δ7-Db DCs were superior to WT-Db DCs at stimulating anti-tumor responses against established B16 melanoma tumors, significantly extending mouse survival. Human DCs engineered to express Δ7-HLA-A*0201 showed similarly enhanced CTL stimulatory capacity. Further studies demonstrated impaired lateral membrane movement and clustering of human Δ7-MHC-I/peptide complexes, resulting in significantly increased bioavailability of MHC-I/peptide complexes for specific CD8+ T cells. Collectively, these data suggest that targeting exon 7-encoded MHC-I cytoplasmic determinants in DC vaccines has the potential to increase CD8+ T-cell stimulatory capacity and substantially improve their clinical efficacy

Antibiotic treatment of bacterial vaginosis to prevent preterm delivery: Systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Bacterial vaginosis (BV) increases preterm delivery (PTD) risk, but treatment trials showed mixed results in preventing PTD. OBJECTIVES: Determine, using individual participant data (IPD), whether BV treatment during pregnancy reduced PTD or prolonged time-to-delivery. DATA SOURCES: Cochrane Systematic Review (2013), MEDLINE, EMBASE, journal searches, and searches (January 2013-September 2022) ("bacterial vaginosis AND pregnancy") of (i) clinicaltrials.gov; (ii) Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials; (iii) World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform Portal; and (iv) Web of Science ("bacterial vaginosis"). STUDY SELECTION AND DATA EXTRACTION: Studies randomising asymptomatic pregnant individuals with BV to antibiotics or control, measuring delivery gestation. Extraction was from original data files. Bias risk was assessed using the Cochrane tool. Analysis used "one-step" logistic and Cox random effect models, adjusting gestation at randomisation and PTD history; heterogeneity by I2 . Subgroup analysis tested interactions with treatment. In sensitivity analyses, studies not providing IPD were incorporated by "multiple random-donor hot-deck" imputation, using IPD studies as donors. RESULTS: There were 121 references (96 studies) with 23 eligible trials (11,979 participants); 13 studies (6915 participants) provided IPD; 12 (6115) were incorporated. Results from 9 (4887 participants) not providing IPD were imputed. Odds ratios for PTD for metronidazole and clindamycin versus placebo were 1.00 (95% CI 0.84, 1.17), I2  = 62%, and 0.59 (95% CI 0.42, 0.82), I2  = 0 before; and 0.95 (95% CI 0.81, 1.11), I2  = 59%, and 0.90 (95% CI: 0.72, 1.12), I2  = 0, after imputation. Time-to-delivery did not differ from null with either treatment. Including imputed IPD, there was no evidence that either drug was more effective when administered earlier, or among those with a PTD history. CONCLUSIONS: Clindamycin, but not metronidazole, was beneficial in studies providing IPD, but after imputing data from missing IPD studies, treatment of BV during pregnancy did not reduce PTD, nor prolong pregnancy, in any subgroup or when started earlier in gestation

Essential versus accessory aspects of cell death: recommendations of the NCCD 2015

Cells exposed to extreme physicochemical or mechanical stimuli die in an uncontrollable manner, as a result of their immediate structural breakdown. Such an unavoidable variant of cellular demise is generally referred to as ‘accidental cell death’ (ACD). In most settings, however, cell death is initiated by a genetically encoded apparatus, correlating with the fact that its course can be altered by pharmacologic or genetic interventions. ‘Regulated cell death’ (RCD) can occur as part of physiologic programs or can be activated once adaptive responses to perturbations of the extracellular or intracellular microenvironment fail. The biochemical phenomena that accompany RCD may be harnessed to classify it into a few subtypes, which often (but not always) exhibit stereotyped morphologic features. Nonetheless, efficiently inhibiting the processes that are commonly thought to cause RCD, such as the activation of executioner caspases in the course of apoptosis, does not exert true cytoprotective effects in the mammalian system, but simply alters the kinetics of cellular demise as it shifts its morphologic and biochemical correlates. Conversely, bona fide cytoprotection can be achieved by inhibiting the transduction of lethal signals in the early phases of the process, when adaptive responses are still operational. Thus, the mechanisms that truly execute RCD may be less understood, less inhibitable and perhaps more homogeneous than previously thought. Here, the Nomenclature Committee on Cell Death formulates a set of recommendations to help scientists and researchers to discriminate between essential and accessory aspects of cell death

Intrauterine Growth Restriction Is a Direct Consequence of Localized Maternal Uropathogenic Escherichia coli Cystitis

Despite the continually increasing rates of adverse perinatal outcomes across the globe, the molecular mechanisms that underlie adverse perinatal outcomes are not completely understood. Clinical studies report that 10% of pregnant women will experience a urinary tract infection (UTI) and there is an association of UTIs with adverse perinatal outcomes. We introduced bacterial cystitis into successfully outbred female mice at gestational day 14 to follow pregnancy outcomes and immunological responses to determine the mechanisms that underlie UTI-mediated adverse outcomes. Outbred fetuses from mothers experiencing localized cystitis displayed intrauterine growth restriction (20–80%) as early as 48 hours post-infection and throughout the remainder of normal gestation. Robust infiltration of cellular innate immune effectors was observed in the uteroplacental tissue following introduction of UTI despite absence of viable bacteria. The magnitude of serum proinflammatory cytokines is elevated in the maternal serum during UTI. This study demonstrates that a localized infection can dramatically impact the immunological status as well as the function of non-infected distal organs and tissues. This model can be used as a platform to determine the mechanism(s) by which proinflammatory changes occur between non-contiguous genitourinary organ