10,345 research outputs found

    Inference with Weak Instruments

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    This paper reviews recent developments in methods for dealing with weak instruments (IVs) in IV regression models. The focus is more on tests (and confidence intervals derived from tests) than estimators. The paper also presents new testing results under "many weak IV asymptotics," which are relevant when the number of IVs is large and the coefficients on the IVs are relatively small. Asymptotic power envelopes for invariant tests are established. Power comparisons of the conditional likelihood ratio (CLR), Anderson-Rubin, and Lagrange multiplier tests are made. Numerical results show that the CLR test is on the asymptotic power envelope. This holds no matter what the relative magnitude of the IV strength to the number of IVs.Conditional likelihood ratio test, instrumental variables, many instrumental variables, power envelope, weak instruments

    Angler Response to Success in the California Salmon Sportfishery: Evidence and Management Implications

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    This paper examines effort responsiveness to success in the California salmon partyboat sport fishery. The management process in this important fishery involves setting target harvest levels for both commercial and sportfishing groups and then using closed seasons, restricted gear, and possession limits to dampen effective effort. An important component of the management process involves forecasting sportfishing effort and its effect on catch in order to advance-plan management actions. For want of better information, simple proportionality rules-of-thumb are used currently and this paper examines the plausibility of these. Some simple models forecasting aggregate angler participation and aggregate partyboat catch on a weekly basis are estimated across several different ports. Our findings suggest that anglers are responsive to recent success in several sports (elasticities up to + .5) and that angler participation affects catch with an elasticity exceeding unity. These results indicate that the simple rules of thumb currently in use could be in substantial error.Environmental Economics and Policy, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,
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