Did the debt crisis or declining oil prices cause Mexico's investment collapse?

The author proposes and estimates a microeconomic investment model to determine the relative importance of three explanations for Mexico's investment decline in the early 1980s: the decline in oil prices; the termination of capital inflows; and the effects of debt overhang and uncertainty. He uses investment data for private industries between 1981 and 1985, which have yet to be used in addressing the question under discussion. The data indicate that the main microeconomic mechanism driving the decline in investment was a rise in the relative price of investment goods - especially the relative price of machinery (a traded good in Mexico). Moreover, the decline in trade (driven by falling world oil prices) explains much of the increase in this relative price. The decline in Mexico's international terms of trade was probably the most important ultimate cause of the increased relative cost of machinery, but the reversal in net capital inflows to Mexico probably also played a role in increasing this relative price. On this point, the evidence is not as clear. After controlling for these effects, the author finds little evidence that the effects of debt overhang and uncertainty had much to do with the investment decline. The author points out that investment in Texas and Louisiana (which were also riding the oil boom of 1973-81) also fell in 1981-86, and adverse commodity price shocks also affected many other heavily indebted countries. At the very least, commodity price shocks (such as Mexico's decline in oil prices) as a direct cause of declining investment levels in the 1980s have been insufficiently emphasized in the literature on the effects of the international debt crisis.Banks&Banking Reform,International Terrorism&Counterterrorism,Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Financial Intermediation

Achieving Rapid Growth in the Transition Economies of Central Europe

This paper describes ways that the CEEs can speed their convergence with the EU by emulating the growth strategies of the very fast growing economies. In Section II, we introduce the VFGEs, and discuss some of the sources of their superior growth performance. In Section III, we demonstrate the role of key policy variables in the context of cross-country growth equations. In Section IV, we examine how the CEEs can emulate key aspects of the economic policies of the VFGEs, in order to raise their growth in the coming years.economic transition, Central Eastern Europe, economic growth

Economic Convergence and Economic Policies

Many of the crucial debates in development economics are encapsulated in the question of economic convergence. Is there a tendency for the poorer countries to grow more rapidly than the richer countries, and thereby to converge in living standards? Or instead, are there tendencies for the "rich to get richer, and the poor to get poorer," so that the gap between rich and poor nations tends to widen over time?economic convergence, economic policy

Economic Convergence and Economic Policies

Many of the crucial debates in development economics are encapsulated in the question of economic convergence. Is there a tendency for the poorer countries to grow more rapidly than the richer countries, and thereby to converge in living standards? Some recent research on endogenous growth has emphasized increasing returns as a possible reason not to expect convergence. Other research has suggested that convergence may be achieved only after poor countries attain a threshold level of income or human capital. This paper presents evidence that a sufficient condition for higher-than-average growth of poorer countries, and therefore convergence, is that poorer countries follow reasonably efficient economic policies, mainly open trade and protection of private property rights.

Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth

One of the surprising features of modern economic growth is that economies with abundant natural resources have tended to grow less rapidly than natural-resource-scarce economies. In this paper we show that economies with a high ratio of natural resource exports to GDP in 1971 (the base year) tended to have low growth rates during the subsequent period 1971-89. This negative relationship holds true even after controlling for variables found to be important for economic growth, such as initial per capita income, trade policy, government efficiency, investment rates, and other variables. We explore the possible pathways for this negative relationship by studying the cross-country effects of resource endowments on trade policy, bureaucratic efficiency, and other determinants of growth. We also provide a simple theoretical model of endogenous growth that might help to explain the observed negative relationship.

Trends in Regional Inequality in China

Several recent studies have examined the tendency of regions within a nation to exhibit long-term convergence in per capita income levels. Barro and Sala-i-Martin (1991, 1992, 1995) have found a tendency towards convergence among the U.S. states, among Japanese prefectures, and among regions within Western Europe. In this paper we examine the tendency towards convergence among the provinces of China during the period 1952-1993. We find that real income convergence of provinces in China has been a relatively recent phenomenon, emerging strongly only since the reform period began in 1978. During the initial phase of central planning, 1952-1965, there is some evidence for convergence, but it is weak and sensitive to the time period being analyzed. During the cultural revolution, 1965- 1978, there is strong evidence of divergence rather than convergence. We find strong evidence for convergence during the reform period is associated with rural reforms, and is especially strong within the coastal regions where there has been liberalization of international trade and investment flows. However, since 1990 regional incomes have begun to diverge. Such a divergence is entirely explained by the variance between the coastal and interior provinces, rather than increase in variance within each other. Therefore, it seems that China is now on a dual track, with a prosperous and fast growing coastal region and a poor interior growing at a lower rate.

Sources of Slow Growth in African Economies

This paper offers some econometric evidence on the sources of slow growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. The evidence suggests that the continent's slow growth can be explained in an international cross-country framework, without the need to invoke a special explanation unique to Sub-Saharan Africa. We find that poor economic policies have played an especially important role in the slow growth, most importantly Africa's lack of openness to international markets. In addition, geographical factors such as lack of access to the sea and tropical climate have also contributed to Africa's slow growth

Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth

One of the surprising features of modern economic growth is that economies abundant in natural resources have tended to grow slower than economies without substantial natural resources. In this paper we show that economies with a high ratio of natural resource exports to GDP in 1970 (the base year) tended to grow slowly during the subsequent 20-year period 1970-1990. This negative relationship holds true even after controlling for many variables found to be important for economic growth by previous authors. We discuss several theories and present additional evidence to understand the source of this negative association