Lifetime risk of prostate cancer overdiagnosis in Australia: Quantifying the risk of overdiagnosis associated with prostate cancer screening in Australia using a novel lifetime risk approach

© 2019 Author(s). Objectives To quantify the risk of overdiagnosis associated with prostate cancer screening in Australia using a novel lifetime risk approach. Design Modelling and validation of the lifetime risk method using publicly available population data. Setting Opportunistic screening for prostate cancer in the Australian population. Participants Australian male population (1982-2012). Interventions Prostate-specific antigen testing for prostate cancer screening. Primary and secondary outcome measures Primary: Lifetime risk of overdiagnosis in 2012 (excess lifetime cancer risk adjusted for changing competing mortality); Secondary: Lifetime risk of prostate cancer diagnosis (unadjusted and adjusted for competing mortality); Excess lifetime risk of prostate cancer diagnosis (for all years subsequent to 1982). Results The lifetime risk of being diagnosed with prostate cancer increased from 6.1% in 1982 (1 in 17) to 19.6% in 2012 (1 in 5). Using 2012 competing mortality rates, the lifetime risk in 1982 was 11.5% (95% CI 11.0% to 12.0%). The excess lifetime risk of prostate cancer in 2012 (adjusted for changing competing mortality) was 8.2% (95% CI 7.6% to 8.7%) (1 in 13). This corresponds to 41% of prostate cancers being overdiagnosed. Conclusions Our estimated rate of overdiagnosis is in agreement with estimates using other methods. This method may be used without the need to adjust for lead times. If annual (cross-sectional) data are used, then it may give valid estimates of overdiagnosis once screening has been established long enough for the benefits from the early detection of non-overdiagnosed cancer at a younger age to be realised in older age groups

Early CRT monitoring using time-domain optical coherence tomography does not add to visual acuity for predicting visual loss in patients with central retinal vein occlusion treated with intravitreal ranibizumab:A secondary analysis of trial data

Our primary purpose was to assess the clinical (predictive) validity of central retinal thickness (CRT) and best corrected visual acuity (BCVA) at 1 week and 1 month after starting treatment with ranibizumab for central retinal vein occlusion. The authors also assessed detectability of response to treatment

Defining normal ranges and centiles for heart and respiratory rates in infants and children: A cross-sectional study of patients attending an Australian tertiary hospital paediatric emergency department

Key components in the assessment of a child in the emergency department ( ED ) are their heart and respiratory rates. In order to interpret these signs, practitioners must know what is normal for a particular age. The aim of this paper is to develop age-specific centiles for these parameters and to compare centiles with the previously published work of Fleming and Bonafide, and the Advanced Paediatric Life Support ( APLS ) reference ranges

Relative survival after hospitalisation for hip fracture in older people in New South Wales, Australia

Survival after hospitalisation for hip fracture by age group and sex relative to survival in the general population was assessed in people aged 65+. Men had double the risk of death compared with women to 1 year, but age effects lasted only to 3 months. Clinical outcomes need to be improved.We assessed the relative survival of hospitalised fall-related hip fracture patients aged 65+ years leaving hospital in New South Wales, Australia, between July 2000 and December 2003.We carried out a population-based study of all hospital separations for NSW residents with a principal diagnosis of hip fracture (ICD-10-AM S72.0 to S72.2) and first external cause of fall (ICD-10-AM codes W00 to W19), linked to NSW death data. A total of 16,836 cases were included. Relative survival 3 to 36 months post-admission by 10-year age groups and sex was calculated, using NSW life tables for 2002-2004. Relative excess risk was modelled using a generalised linear model with Poisson error structure, using the life table data.One-year cumulative relative survival in 65- to 74-year-olds was 82% (men), 90% (women); in 85+-year-olds 65% (men), 80% (women). Men have a relative excess risk of death of 2.2 (95% CI 2.03-2.38) times that of women. Only 21% of deaths mention the hip fracture as contributing to death.There is a need to reduce the number of hip fractures and improve clinical outcomes for older people hospitalised with hip fractures

Long term monitoring in patients receiving treatment to lower blood pressure: analysis of data from placebo controlled randomised controlled trial

Objective To determine the value of monitoring blood pressure by quantifying the probability that observed changes in blood pressure reflect true changes

Determining the intra- and inter-observer reliability of screening tools used in sports injury research

Sports injury etiological studies explore the relationships between potential injury risk factors and injury outcomes. The ability of such studies to clearly identify intrinsic risk factors for sports injury depends on the accuracy of their measurement. Measurements need to be reproducible over time and repeatable by different observers, as well as within a given individual. The importance of the reliability of pre-participation screening protocols and other clinical assessment tools has been identified in a number of published studies. However, a review of these studies indicates that a variety of statistical techniques have been used to calculate intra- and inter-observer reliability. While the intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) is the most often cited measure, a range of statistical approaches to estimating ICCs have been used. It is therefore difficult to determine which statistical method is most appropriate in the context of measuring intrinsic risk factors in sports injury research. This paper summarises a statistical method for the concurrent assessment of intra- and inter-observer reliability and presents an argument for why this approach should be adopted by sports injury researchers using screening protocols that collect continuous data.C

Relative survival after hospitalisation for hip fracture in older people in New South Wales, Australia

Summary: Survival after hospitalisation for hip fracture by age group and sex relative to survival in the general population was assessed in people aged 65+. Men had double the risk of death compared with women to 1 year, but age effects lasted only to 3 months. Clinical outcomes need to be improved. Introduction: We assessed the relative survival of hospitalised fall-related hip fracture patients aged 65+ years leaving hospital in New South Wales, Australia, between July 2000 and December 2003. Method: We carried out a population-based study of all hospital separations for NSW residents with a principal diagnosis of hip fracture (ICD-10-AM S72.0 to S72.2) and first external cause of fall (ICD-10-AM codes W00 to W19), linked to NSW death data. A total of 16,836 cases were included. Relative survival 3 to 36 months post-admission by 10-year age groups and sex was calculated, using NSW life tables for 2002-2004. Relative excess risk was modelled using a generalised linear model with Poisson error structure, using the life table data. Results: One-year cumulative relative survival in 65- to 74-year-olds was 82% (men), 90% (women); in 85+-year-olds 65% (men), 80% (women). Men have a relative excess risk of death of 2.2 (95% CI 2.03-2.38) times that of women. Only 21% of deaths mention the hip fracture as contributing to death. Conclusion: There is a need to reduce the number of hip fractures and improve clinical outcomes for older people hospitalised with hip fractures. © 2008 International Osteoporosis Foundation and National Osteoporosis Foundation.C

The impact of environmental, vehicle and driver characteristics on injury severity in older drivers hospitalized as a result of a traffic crash

Introduction: Compared to younger age groups, older people are more likely to be seriously injured or to die as a result of a traffic crash. Method: The aim of the study is to examine the impact of environmental, vehicle, crash, and driver characteristics on injury severity in older drivers involved in traffic crashes by using recently linked police crash records and hospitalization data from New South Wales, Australia. The severity of injury resulting from traffic crashes was measured using the International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision (ICD-10) Injury Severity Score (ICISS). Results: Multivariate analysis identified rurality, presence of complex intersections, road speed limit, driver error, speeding, and seat belt use as independent predictors of injury severity in older people. The type of intersection configuration explained over half of the observed variations in injury severity. Impact on Industry: Environmental modification such as intersection treatments might contribute to a decrease in the severity of injury in older people involved in road crashes

Determinants of Full Breastfeeding at 6 Months and Any Breastfeeding at 12 and 24 Months among Women in Sydney: Findings from the HSHK Birth Cohort Study

The aim of this study was to report on breastfeeding duration up to 24 months and determine the predictors of breastfeeding duration among women in South Western Sydney, one of the most culturally diverse and socioeconomically disadvantaged regions of New South Wales (NSW), Australia. Mother–infant dyads (n = 1035) were recruited to the Healthy Smiles Healthy Kids birth cohort study. Study data were collected through telephone interviews at 2, 4, 8, 12, and 24 months postpartum. Cox proportional hazards models were used to determine factors associated with the risk of stopping full breastfeeding at six months and any breastfeeding at 12 and 24 months. The majority of mothers (92.3%) had initiated breastfeeding. At six months, 13.5% of infants were fully breastfed, while 49.9% received some breast milk. Only 25.5% and 2.9% of infants received some breast milk at 12 and 24 months, respectively. Lower maternal education level, lower socioeconomic status, full-time employment, maternal smoking during pregnancy, and caesarean delivery were associated with increased risk of stopping full breastfeeding at six months and any breastfeeding at 12 and 24 months. Older maternal age and partner’s preference for breastfeeding were associated with an increased likelihood of continuing any breastfeeding at 12 and 24 months. These findings present a number of opportunities for prolonging breastfeeding duration in disadvantaged communities in NSW