Modelling sediment supply and transport in the River Lugg: strategies for controlling sediment loads

The River Lugg has particular problems with high sediment loads that have resulted in detrimental impacts on ecology and fisheries. A new dynamic, process-based model of hydrology and sediments (INCA- SED) has been developed and applied to the River Lugg system using an extensive data set from 1995–2008. The model simulates sediment sources and sinks throughout the catchment and gives a good representation of the sediment response at 22 reaches along the River Lugg. A key question considered in using the model is the management of sediment sources so that concentrations and bed loads can be reduced in the river system. Altogether, five sediment management scenarios were selected for testing on the River Lugg, including land use change, contour tillage, hedging and buffer strips. Running the model with parameters altered to simulate these five scenarios produced some interesting results. All scenarios achieved some reduction in sediment levels, with the 40% land use change achieving the best result with a 19% reduction. The other scenarios also achieved significant reductions of between 7% and 9%. Buffer strips produce the best result at close to 9%. The results suggest that if hedge introduction, contour tillage and buffer strips were all applied, sediment reductions would total 24%, considerably improving the current sediment situation. We present a novel cost-effectiveness analysis of our results where we use percentage of land removed from production as our cost function. Given the minimal loss of land associated with contour tillage, hedges and buffer strips, we suggest that these management practices are the most cost-effective combination to reduce sediment loads

Strategic non-nuclear weapons and the onset of a Third Nuclear Age

Three decades after what is widely referred to as the transition from a First to a Second Nuclear Age, the world stands on the cusp of a possible Third Nuclear Age where the way that we conceptualise the central dynamics of the nuclear game will change again. This paradigm shift is being driven by the growth and spread of non-nuclear technologies with strategic applications and by a shift in thinking about the sources of nuclear threats and how they should be addressed, primarily, but not solely, in the United States. Recent scholarship has rightly identified a new set of challenges posed by the development of strategic non-nuclear weaponry (SNNW). But the full implications of this transformation in policy, technology and thinking for the global nuclear order as a whole have so far been underexplored. To remedy this, we look further ahead to the ways in which current trends, if taken to their logical conclusion, have the capacity to usher in a new nuclear era. We argue that in the years ahead, SNNW will increasingly shape the nuclear order, particularly in relation to questions of stability and risk. In the Third Nuclear Age, nuclear deployments, postures, balances, arms control, non-proliferation policy, and the prospects for disarmament, will all be shaped as much by developments in SNNW capabilities as by nuclear weapons. Consequently, we advocate for an urgent reassessment of the way nuclear order and nuclear risks are conceptualised as we confront the challenges of a Third Nuclear Age

Controls on inorganic nitrogen leaching from Finnish catchments assessed using a sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the INCA -N model

The semi-distributed, dynamic INCA-N model was used to simulate the behaviour of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) in two Finnish research catchments. Parameter sensitivity and model structural uncertainty were analysed using generalized sensitivity analysis. The Mustajoki catchment is a forested upstream catchment, while the Savijoki catchment represents intensively cultivated lowlands. In general, there were more influential parameters in Savijoki than Mustajoki. Model results were sensitive to N-transformation rates, vegetation dynamics, and soil and river hydrology. Values of the sensitive parameters were based on long-term measurements covering both warm and cold years. The highest measured DIN concentrations fell between minimum and maximum values estimated during the uncertainty analysis. The lowest measured concentrations fell outside these bounds, suggesting that some retention processes may be missing from the current model structure. The lowest concentrations occurred mainly during low flow periods; so effects on total loads were small

Trends and patterns in surface water chemistry in Europe and North America between 1990 and 2020, with a focus on calcium

Prosjektleder: Rolf David VogtThe report presents trends in major anions and cations, pH, TOC and bicarbonate in surface waters in Europe and North America from 1990 to 2020. Special attention is given to trends in calcium, which showed some unexpected increases. The trends in calcium are analysed in relation to changes in bicarbonates, organic anions, and deposition loads. The surface waters show strong signs of chemical recovery.Norwegian Ministry of Climate and Environment, United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE)publishedVersio

False positive and false negative errors in the design and implementation of agri-environmental policies: a case study on water quality and agricultural nutrients

When designing and implementing agri-environmental policies to reduce nutrient loss, action programmes may falsely address areas where the nutrient issue from agricultural activity is not currently important and is not likely to become so in the future (a false positive), or may fail to address areas where the agricultural nutrient issue is currently important or may likely become so in the future (a false negative). Based on a case study of the Louros watershed in Greece, this work identifies database and modelling sources of false positives and negatives and proposes a decision making process aimed at minimizing the possibility of committing such errors. The baseline is well simulated and shows that the Louro’s watershed falls behind a Good Environmental Status, at least marginally. Simulated mitigation measures show that the river’s status can be upgraded to “Good”, at least as concerns nitrates and ammonium. Simulated climate change does not seem to exert an important positive or negative effect. Land use changes forecasting considerably less cultivated area have a significant effect on Total Phosphorous but not on nitrates or ammonium concentrations. The non-linearity between nutrient disposition (inputs) and nutrient concentration in downstream water bodies (output) and the many factors that affect the nutrient disposition-transportation-concentration chain, highlights the importance of simulating the effects of mitigation actions and of future climate and land use changes before adopting and establishing agri-environmental measures

Oxidized cholesteryl ester induces exocytosis of dysfunctional lysosomes in lipidotic macrophages

Funding Information: This work was financially supported by FCT (Foundation for Science and Technology of the Portuguese Ministry of Science and Higher Education) through national funds and co‐funded by FEDER under the PT2020 Partnership (Ref. PTDC/MED‐PAT/29395/2017, 2022.01305.PTDC and 2022.03249.PTDC). The Coimbra Chemistry Center (CQC) is supported by the FCT through Project UID/QUI/00313/2019. MSCA‐RISE: “Genetic and Small Molecule Modifiers of Lysosomal Function” (LysoMod), financed by Horizon 2020. Ref 734825. Twinning on “Excel in Rare Diseases' Research: Focus on LYSOsomal Disorders and CILiopathies”, Ref (H2020‐TWINN‐2017: GA 81108). Neuza Domingues was a holder of PhD fellowship from the FCT (Ref. No: SFRH/BD/51877/2012), attributed by Inter‐University Doctoral Programme in Ageing and Chronic Disease (PhDOC). André R.A. Marques was funded by the FCT Stimulus of Scientific Employment Individual Support Call 2017 (CEECIND/01006/2017). Rosa Puertollano was funded by the NHLBI Division of Intramural Research (ZIA HL006151‐10). Publisher Copyright: © 2023 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.A key event in atherogenesis is the formation of lipid-loaded macrophages, lipidotic cells, which exhibit irreversible accumulation of undigested modified low-density lipoproteins (LDL) in lysosomes. This event culminates in the loss of cell homeostasis, inflammation, and cell death. Nevertheless, the exact chemical etiology of atherogenesis and the molecular and cellular mechanisms responsible for the impairment of lysosome function in plaque macrophages are still unknown. Here, we demonstrate that macrophages exposed to cholesteryl hemiazelate (ChA), one of the most prevalent products of LDL-derived cholesteryl ester oxidation, exhibit enlarged peripheral dysfunctional lysosomes full of undigested ChA and neutral lipids. Both lysosome area and accumulation of neutral lipids are partially irreversible. Interestingly, the dysfunctional peripheral lysosomes are more prone to fuse with the plasma membrane, secreting their undigested luminal content into the extracellular milieu with potential consequences for the pathology. We further demonstrate that this phenotype is mechanistically linked to the nuclear translocation of the MiT/TFE family of transcription factors. The induction of lysosome biogenesis by ChA appears to partially protect macrophages from lipid-induced cytotoxicity. In sum, our data show that ChA is involved in the etiology of lysosome dysfunction and promotes the exocytosis of these organelles. This latter event is a new mechanism that may be important in the pathogenesis of atherosclerosis.publishersversionpublishe

The United States after unipolarity: Obama’s nuclear weapons policy in a changing world

The role that nuclear weapons should play in US security policy has divided analysts and policymakers since “the bomb” was first used in 1945, and has been a particularly important question facing US presidents since the end of the Cold War. Essentially this is because in the post-Cold War world it has become clear that the US no longer needs the many thousands of nuclear warheads originally intended to deter the Soviet Union in order to deal with the new types of threats – from rogue states or even terrorists – that currently dominate US security thinking. In fact, many believe that retaining large stockpiles of nuclear weapons worldwide will increase the likelihood that nuclear weapons technology will proliferate to other actors hostile to the US around the globe, which may one day be used. However, this has not translated directly into coherent policy towards nuclear reductions, or indeed created unambiguous political support for nuclear elimination. George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton, and George W. Bush all made steps in this direction – with varying degrees of success, and with different political aims in mind – but Barack Obama is the first post-Cold War US president to truly embrace the issue of nuclear abolition, and to make reducing US reliance on such weapons a central priority

The evolution of the US ballistic missile defence debate 1989-2010: institutional rivalry, party politics and the quest towards political and strategic acceptance

This thesis explains the evolution of US ballistic missile defence (BMD) policy between 1989 and 2010, by moving beyond the political rhetoric and intellectual obfuscation that surrounds the policy in the literature. By developing an explanatory framework to rigorously and systematically analyse the impact of different dynamics on policy, it explains the rhythms of day-to-day policy in particular context; explains the medium term shifts in the domestic political space within which day-to-day policy debate occurred, and explains the long term move towards acceptance and the gradual normalisation of BMD in American security policy. The primary argument of the thesis is that the particular configuration of domestic political institutions and party political pressures at any given time has been far more important in shaping BMD policy during each presidential administration since the end of the Cold War than has previously been acknowledged. Secondly, it argues that developments in the international system and technology have gradually altered the context within which this domestic political debate has occurred. Finally, it shows that domestic political influences, and the gradual shift in the contours of the domestic debate are the key reasons why BMD has gone from being one of the most divisive, zero-sum political issues in American national security thinking, to something that has largely become normalised, with debate now only occurring at the margins

Mapping The Emerging Strategic Stability And Arms Control Landscape

• Our nuclear world is changing, and this will have significant impacts on strategic stability and arms control. This is being driven by a mixture of technological, geopolitical and normative forces. • Technological change and innovation are facilitating new types of strategic weaponry and missions. These have the potential to challenge established notions of deterrence and create nuclear risks. • The combination of an emerging system of nuclear great-power multipolarity at the same time as a growth in “nuclear nationalism” and a return of bellicose nuclear rhetoric and statecraft are challenging traditional power balances, arms control and nuclear stability based on restraint. • This is all taking place within a bifurcating global nuclear environment characterised on one side by normative challenges to the established nuclear order and increasing demands for nuclear energy, and on the other with a resurgence in the political salience of nuclear weapons. • Taken together, this suggests that we are arguably on the cusp of a new “nuclear age” where we will need to rethink the rules of the nuclear game and how we prevent nuclear use