How legislators respond to localized economic shocks: evidence from Chinese import competition

We explore the effects of localized economic shocks from trade on roll-call behavior and electoral outcomes in the US House, 1990–2010. We demonstrate that economic shocks from Chinese import competition—first studied by Autor, Dorn, and Hanson—cause legislators to vote in a more protectionist direction on trade bills but cause no change in their voting on all other bills. At the same time, these shocks have no effect on the reelection rates of incumbents, the probability an incumbent faces a primary challenge, or the partisan control of the district. Though changes in economic conditions are likely to cause electoral turnover in many cases, incumbents exposed to negative economic shocks from trade appear able to fend off these effects in equilibrium by taking strategic positions on foreign-trade bills. In line with this view, we find that the effect on roll-call voting is strongest in districts where incumbents are most threatened electorally. Taken together, these results paint a picture of responsive incumbents who tailor their roll-call positions on trade bills to the economic conditions in their districts

The majority-party disadvantage: revising theories of legislative organization

Dominant theories of legislative organization in the U.S. rest on the notion that the majority party arranges legislative matters to enhance its electoral fortunes. Yet, we find little evidence for a short-term electoral advantage for the majority party in U.S. state legislatures. Furthermore, there appears to be a pronounced downstream majority-party disadvantage. To establish these findings, we propose a technique for aggregating the results of close elections to obtain as-if random variation in majority-party status. We argue that the results from this approach are consistent with a phenomenon of inter-temporal balancing, which we link to other forms of partisan balancing in U.S. elections. The article thus necessitates revisions to our theories of legislative organization, offers new arguments for balancing theories, and lays out an empirical technique for studying the effects of majority-party status in legislative contexts

Public funding of elections increases candidate polarization by reducing the influence of moderate donors

A common refrain is that there is “too much money in politics”, with many arguing for the public funding of political campaigns. But what are the effects of this kind of public finding on electoral and legislative behavior? Using evidence from U.S. state legislative elections over the past four decades, Andrew B. Hall finds that public funding for campaigns actually increases political polarization by reducing the influence of interest groups, which tend to be more moderate than individuals in the way that they donate

Senior party members have the most to lose when their party moves to centralize its ability to set the policy agenda

The rise of the power of the Tea Party in the House of Representatives has raised numerous questions about legislative organization and party leadership. Using data from reforms in the 1970s that weakened the seniority system in the House, Andrew B. Hall explores one obstacle to centralizing power towards the party leadership and away from senior committee members. He argues that party members have electoral incentives to centralize power when they share an ideological vision, but that the senior members who lose power under this arrangement are similarly motivated to block these reforms

Extremists who win primaries are 37 percent less likely to win the general election compared to more moderate candidates

Recent years have seen growing concern about polarization in Congress, with many suggesting that voters have been nominating more extreme candidates in primary elections. In new research, Andrew B. Hall looks at what happens when more ideologically extreme candidates are nominated, and finds that compared to more moderate candidates, they are 37 percent less likely to win the general election. He argues that this the current trend towards nominating more extreme candidates may not be down to voters’ preferences, but to the changing supply of candidates, which has been influenced by the higher costs and fewer benefits of running

Elections have big consequences that last for decades

Every election cycle, voters are told by pundits and commentators that this particular election counts and that it is likely to shape public policy for decades to come. In new research, Anthony Fowler and Andrew B. Hall find that elections definitely do have consequences; for example, a barely elected Republican is 40 percent more likely to vote conservatively in Congress than a Democrat would have. They also find that because of legislators’ ambitions and the advantage of incumbency, one election result can influence the future results in that district for more than a decade

Do jumbo-CD holders care about anything?

Uninsured deposits represent a theoretically appealing but relatively untested alternative to subordinated debt for incorporating market discipline into banking supervision. To make the deposit market a useful supervisory tool, it is necessary to know what types of risk are priced by depositors and in what proportions. Using a clustering technique to select from among a large set of potential regressors, as well as a carefully chosen set of control variables, we attempt to determine the types of risk that cause uninsured depositors to react in both the price and quantity dimensions. As a benchmark for economic significance, we estimate similar regressions on supervisory ratings. We find that, in contrast to government supervisors, depositors have not priced most types of risk since 1997. Indeed, the only risk variables that consistently come up as statistically significant are those that measure capital adequacy. Our interpretation of these results is that, because aggregate banking conditions are good, it is not worth depositors' effort to investigate individual bank quality very carefully. We conclude that, in the current economic and regulatory environment, the market is content to delegate most of its monitoring and discipline to the government. To the extent that it does monitor, it only monitors capital. The jumbo-CD market is thus not likely to be of much supervisory use, particularly given that examiners already have good information about capital levels. The depositor emphasis on capital also supports the conjecture that market discipline was responsible for much of the recent capital build-up.Bank deposits ; Bank supervision

Solving the Hierarchy Problem with Noncompact Extra Dimensions

We show that gravitational effects of global cosmic 3-branes can be responsible for compactification from six to four space-time dimensions, naturally producing the observed hierarchy between electroweak and gravitational forces. The finite radius of the transverse dimensions follows from Einstein's equation, and is exponentially large compared with the scales associated with the 3-brane. The space-time ends on a mild naked singularity at the boundary of the transverse dimensions; nevertheless unitary boundary conditions render the singularity harmless.Comment: 11 pages. Several references adde

Gemini-South + FLAMINGOS Demonstration Science: Near-Infrared Spectroscopy of the z=5.77 Quasar SDSS J083643.85+005453.3

We report an infrared 1-1.8 micron (J+H-bands), low-resolution (R=450) spectrogram of the highest-redshift radio-loud quasar currently known, SDSS J083643.85+005453.3, obtained during the spectroscopic commissioning run of the FLAMINGOS multi-object, near-infrared spectrograph at the 8m Gemini-South Observatory. These data show broad emission from both CIV 1549 and CIII] 1909, with strengths comparable to lower-redshift quasar composite spectra. The implication is that there is substantial enrichment of the quasar environment, even at times less than a billion years after the Big Bang. The redshift derived from these features is z = 5.774 +/- 0.003, more accurate and slightly lower than the z = 5.82 reported in the discovery paper based on the partially-absorbed Lyman-alpha emission line. The infrared continuum is significantly redder than lower-redshift quasar composites. Fitting the spectrum from 1.0 to 1.7 microns with a power law f(nu) ~ nu^(-alpha), the derived power law index is alpha = 1.55 compared to the average continuum spectral index = 0.44 derived from the first SDSS composite quasar. Assuming an SMC-like extinction curve, we infer a color excess of E(B-V) = 0.09 +/- 0.01 at the quasar redshift. Only approximately 6% of quasars in the optically-selected Sloan Digital Sky Survey show comparable levels of dust reddening.Comment: 10 pages, 1 figure; to appear in the Astrophysical Journal Letter

Spectral Decomposition of Broad-Line AGNs and Host Galaxies

Using an eigenspectrum decomposition technique, we separate the host galaxy from the broad line active galactic nucleus (AGN) in a set of 4666 spectra from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS), from redshifts near zero up to about 0.75. The decomposition technique uses separate sets of galaxy and quasar eigenspectra to efficiently and reliably separate the AGN and host spectroscopic components. The technique accurately reproduces the host galaxy spectrum, its contributing fraction, and its classification. We show how the accuracy of the decomposition depends upon S/N, host galaxy fraction, and the galaxy class. Based on the eigencoefficients, the sample of SDSS broad-line AGN host galaxies spans a wide range of spectral types, but the distribution differs significantly from inactive galaxies. In particular, post-starburst activity appears to be much more common among AGN host galaxies. The luminosities of the hosts are much higher than expected for normal early-type galaxies, and their colors become increasingly bluer than early-type galaxies with increasing host luminosity. Most of the AGNs with detected hosts are emitting at between 1% and 10% of their estimated Eddington luminosities, but the sensitivity of the technique usually does not extend to the Eddington limit. There are mild correlations among the AGN and host galaxy eigencoefficients, possibly indicating a link between recent star formation and the onset of AGN activity. The catalog of spectral reconstruction parameters is available as an electronic table.Comment: 18 pages; accepted for publication in A