Low fertility and population replacement in Scotland

It has been argued that Scotland faces population ageing and decline that will have potentially serious economic and social consequences, and that the origin of these processes lie in its low and declining fertility rates. After considering alternatives to the total period rate measure of fertility, empirical evidence and theoretical argument about low fertility and its consequences is briefly reviewed. The paper argues that low fertility in general may not be the problem it is often purported to be, that Scotland has relatively high fertility, and that pro-natalist policies are neither desirable nor necessary. It suggests that low fertility and population ageing may be viewed as positive developments, and that within Europe, Scotland is distinguished more by its excess of early deaths than by any shortage of births.Peer reviewe

Tumour diameter is not reliable for management of non-secreting pancreatic neuroendocrine tumours

Small non-functioning pancreatic NETs (pNETs) ≤2 cm can pose a management dilemma in terms of surveillance or resection. There is evidence to suggest that a surveillance approach can be considered since there are no significant radiological changes observed in lesions during long-term follow-up. However, other studies have suggested loco-regional spread can be present in ≤2 cm pNETs. The aim of this study was to characterise the prevalence of malignant features and identify any useful predictive variables in a surgically resected cohort of pNETs. 418 patients with pNETs were identified from 5 NET centres. Of these 227 were included for main analysis of tumour characteristics. Mean age of patients was 57 years, 47% were female. The median follow-up was 48.2 months. Malignant features were identified in 38% of ≤2 cm pNETs. ROC analysis showed that the current cut-off of 20 mm had a sensitivity of 84% for malignancy. The rate of malignant features is in keeping with other surgical series and challenges the belief that small pNETs have a low malignant potential. This study does not support a 20 mm size cut-off as being a solitary safe parameter to exclude malignancy in pNETs