Economic analysis of batteries: Impact on security of electricity supply and renewable energy expansion in Germany

Increasing amounts of fluctuating renewable energy lead to decreasing electricity prices and impair security of electricity supply. Consequently, sustainable and economically feasible solutions need to be found to ensure both ongoing renewable energy expansion and stable electricity supply. We examine the impact of batteries on security of the electricity supply and achieving renewable energy expansion. For this purpose we develop an electricity market model that enables the simulation of batteries both as an economic-driven investment option and as a government subsidized option. We present six policy scenarios in which batteries are utilized as an option that is subsidized by the government to secure electricity supply and engender renewable energy expansion. Our simulations, based on empirical data, indicate that, in a free market, battery investments are not profitable for private investors. On the other hand, these six policy scenarios show that by subsidizing investments in batteries governments could ensure a secure electricity supply as well as ongoing renewable energy expansion. A comparison to similar policy scenarios that do not adopt batteries indicates that the total sum of gove

Economics of renewable energy expansion and security of supply: A dynamic simulation of the German electricity market

We explore the impact of renewable energy under free market conditions on the security of energy supply using data for the German electricity market. We design a fundamental electricity market model, where renewable energy capacity is not driven by expansion goals, but is dynamically modeled as an economically-driven investment option. Furthermore, we analyze the economics of five policy scenarios designed to secure both electricity supply and renewable energy expansion. Our analysis demonstrates that renewable energy expansion leads to conventional power plant shut-downs (due to economic losses) and, as a result, to energy shortages. We find that the application of a fixed feed-in tariff mechanism for renewable energy (i.e. a fixed payment for the provided energy) is an appropriate instrument to simultaneously achieve renewable energy expansion and uninterrupted energy supply. However, when internalizing the external costs of electricity generation, the scenario of a free market for renewable energy together with subsidies for conventional power plants becomes the most cost efficient option

Evaluation in der Radikalisierungsprävention: Ansätze und Kontroversen

Dieser Report nimmt das ge­steig­erte öffent­liche In­te­resse an ver­schie­denen Maß­nahmen und An­sätzen der Ra­di­ka­li­sierungs­prä­ven­tion zum Aus­gangs­punkt einer Dis­kus­sion über Eva­lua­tion. Eva­lua­tionen helfen zu ver­stehen, wie die Prä­ven­tion von Ra­di­kali­sierung und Ex­tre­mis­mus im ge­sell­schaft­lichen Kon­text wirkt. Sie können damit we­sent­liche An­halts­punkte für die häufig ar­ti­ku­lierte Frage nach den sicht­baren Er­folgen von Prä­ven­tion liefern. Gleich­zei­tig exis­tieren in der De­batte um die so­ge­nannte "evidenz­basierte" Prä­ven­tion teil­weise über­zo­gene Er­war­tungen hin­sicht­lich der Leistungs­fähig­keit und Durch­führ­bar­keit von Wir­kungs­eva­lua­tionen. Das be­rechtigte In­teresse an be­last­baren Wirk­sam­keits­nach­weisen stößt bei der Pla­nung und Um­setz­ung von Eva­lu­ations­stu­dien im Bereich der De­ra­di­ka­li­sierung, Dis­tan­zierung und Prä­ven­tion von Ra­di­ka­li­sierung auf be­trächt­liche Heraus­for­der­ungen. Dieser Report geht auf einige dieser Schwierig­keiten ein und zeigt bei­spiel­haft ver­schiedene An­sätze dafür, wie sich Eva­lu­ationen im Rahmen re­a­lis­tischer Mö­glich­keiten um­setzen lassen. Die Idee einer "evidenz­ba­sierten" Prä­ven­tion kann nur dann funk­tionieren, wenn der Eva­lua­tions­for­schung die Eigen­heiten, Wider­sprüche und Kon­tro­versen in Wissen­schaft und Praxis be­wusst sind und sie diese kritisch re­flek­tiert

An optimal mix of conventional power systems in the presence of renewable energy: A new design for the German electricity market

In this paper we develop a new market design for the German electricity market. Our new market design simultaneously ensures security of energy supply and ongoing expansion of renewable energy (RE). The methodological approach applied considers the special challenges resulting from the intermittent nature of RE ‒ we simulate developments in the German electricity market between 2015 and 2034 and differentiate across various power plant technologies according to their ability to flexibly react to changes in the residual load. In theory, a composition of power plants that is optimally adapted to residual load always leads to the most cost efficient supply of electricity. However, our empirical analysis demonstrates that this does not necessarily lead to an improved market environment, both in terms of power plant profitability as well as uninterrupted power supply

Economics of sustainable electricity supply: The German electricity market

The industrial activities that our modern civilization depends upon have increased CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions significantly. There is considerable consensus that this increase in emissions has been contributing to climate change. In order to limit global warming, a comprehensive and fast transition to lower emissions in all industrial sectors is crucial. Despite the strong increase in renewable energies capacity over the past years, there are various challenges associated with the further transition to a 100% renewable energies supply. One of the challenges is the fluctuating supply of renewable energies due to the intermitted nature of wind and sunshine. Another challenge arises from the low marginal costs of renewable energies that lead to a reduction of the electricity price, which impairs a profitable operation of both conventional and renewable energies power plants. Against this backdrop, the main question of this research is which policy scenario can ensure an economic efficient and ongoing expansion of renewable energies together with a secure level of electricity supply? The research focusses on Germany, as Germany has to find sustainable and economically feasible policy scenarios in the short-term due to its strong expansion of renewable energies and its decision to phase-out both nuclear and coal power plants

Cross-border electricity transfers in the case of differentiated renewable energy sources:A simulation analysis for Germany and Spain

Renewable electricity plays an increasingly important role in the effort to reduce CO2 emissions in the electricity sector. One of the major challenges that must be addressed is the fluctuating supply of renewable electricity. We explore the impact of cross-border electricity transfers on both the security of electricity supply and renewable electricity expansion. We focus on Spain and Germany due to the relative abundance of their country-specific renewable electricity sources (solar for Spain and wind for Germany). We develop an electricity market model that allows for cross-border electricity transfers by connecting country-specific electricity markets. We apply six policy scenarios aiming towards securing the electricity supply and renewable electricity expansion. Our simulation results show that cross-border electricity transfers postpone supply shortages in both countries. These shortages occur as a result of an increasing amount of low-marginal-cost renewable electricity, which, in turn, leads to a decrease in the electricity price, so that power plants cannot operate profitably. However, the postponement of these supply shortages is primarily achieved through an excess supply of German conventional power plants that are utilised to meet excess demand in Spain. Although this serves to reduce required government subsidies, it also leads to an increase in CO2 emissions.</p

Cross-border Electricity Transfers in the case of differentiated Renewable Energy Sources: A Simulation Analysis for Germany and Spain

Renewable electricity plays an increasingly important role in the effort to reduce CO2 emissions in the electricity sector. One of the major challenges that must be addressed is the fluctuating supply of renewable electricity. We explore the impact of cross-border electricity transfers on both the security of electricity supply and renewable electricity expansion. We focus on Spain and Germany due to the relative abundance of their country-specific renewable electricity sources (solar for Spain and wind for Germany). We develop an electricity market model that allows for cross-border electricity transfers by connecting country-specific electricity markets. We apply six policy scenarios aiming towards securing the electricity supply and renewable electricity expansion. Our simulation results show that cross-border electricity transfers postpone supply shortages in both countries. These shortages occur as a result of an increasing amount of low-marginal-cost renewable electricity, which, in turn, leads to a decrease in the electricity price, so that power plants cannot operate profitably. However, the postponement of these supply shortages is primarily achieved through an excess supply of German conventional power plants that are utilised to meet excess demand in Spain. Although this serves to reduce required government subsidies, it also leads to an increase in CO2 emissions

Evident and Effective? The Challenges, Potentials and Limitations of Evaluation Research on Preventing Violent Extremism

Radicalization and its prevention have increasingly become the subject of public debate in academia and in the political arena. The impact of prevention efforts is subject to public scrutiny – not only because these efforts, if successful, contribute to the common good, but also because many countries have increased public spending on prevention based on this justification. Evaluations can analyze impact and effectiveness and thereby advance knowledge about how prevention operates within different social contexts and what kind of outcomes it produces. However, there are significant challenges to developing a robust basis of evidence in the field of Preventing Violent Extremism (PVE). On the one hand, practitioners and scholars debate the notion of “evidence-based approaches”, e.g. with regard to methods of data collection or appropriate evaluation designs, while some fundamentally question the concept itself. On the other hand, expectations regarding the capability and feasibility of outcome evaluations are often inflated and incompatible with real-world conditions in PVE practice. This article addresses some of the challenges that researchers face when conducting outcome evaluations in the field of PVE and it suggests pragmatic solutions. It sheds light on the state of evaluation in PVE, focusing on the German context, and gives recommendations pertaining to the commissioning, planning, implementation and utilization of (outcome) evaluations