An analysis of long-term relationships among count statistics and metrics of synthetic tropical cyclones downscaled from CMIP5 models

In a changing climate, the impact of tropical cyclones on the United States Atlantic and Gulf Coasts will be affected both by how intense and how frequent these storms become. The observational record of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin is too short (A.D. 1851 to present) to allow for accurate assessment of low-frequency variability in storm activity. In order to overcome the limitations of the short observational record, we downscale four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models to generate synthetic tropical cyclone data sets for the Atlantic Basin that span the interval of A.D. 850–2005. Using these long-term synthetic tropical cyclone data sets, we investigate the relationship between power dissipation and ocean temperature metrics, as well as the relationship between basin-wide and landfalling tropical cyclone count statistics over the past millennium. Contrary to previous studies, we find only a very weak relationship between power dissipation and main development region sea surface temperature in the Atlantic Basin. Consistent with previous studies, we find that basin-wide and landfalling tropical cyclone counts are significantly correlated with one another, lending further support for the use of paleohurricane landfall records to infer long-term basin-wide tropical cyclone trends.United States. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (grant 424-18 45GZ

Increased threat of tropical cyclones and coastal flooding to New York City during the anthropogenic era

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2015. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of National Academy of Sciences for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 112 (2015): 12610-12615, doi:10.1073/pnas.1513127112.In a changing climate, future inundation of the United States’ Atlantic coast will depend on both storm surges during tropical cyclones and the rising relative sea-levels on which those surges occur. However, the observational record of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin is too short (AD 1851-present) to accurately assess long-term trends in storm activity. To overcome this limitation, we use proxy sealevel records, and downscale three CMIP5 models to generate large synthetic tropical cyclone data sets for the North Atlantic basin; driving climate conditions span from AD 850 to AD 2005. We compare preanthropogenic era (AD 850 – AD 1800) and anthropogenic era (AD 1970 – AD 2005) storm-surge model results for New York City, exposing links between increased rates of sea-level rise and storm flood heights. We find that mean flood heights increased by ~1.24 m (due mainly to sea level rise) from ~AD 850 to the anthropogenic era, a result that is significant at the 99% confidence level. Additionally, changes in tropical cyclone characteristics have led to increases in the extremes of the types of storms that create the largest storm surges for New York City. As a result, flood risk has greatly increased for the region; for example, the 500 year return period for a ~2.25 m flood height during the preanthropogenic era has decreased to ~24.4 years in the anthropogenic era. Our results indicate the impacts of climate change on coastal inundation, and call for advanced risk management strategies.The authors acknowledge funding for this study from NOAA Grants # 424-18 45GZ and # NA11OAR4310101 and National Science Foundation award OCE 1458904.2016-03-2

Predictors of financial difficulties and work modifications among cancer survivors in the United States

The aim of this study is to examine predictors of cancer-related financial difficulties and work modifications in a national sample of cancer survivors. Using the 2011 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey and Experiences with Cancer Survivorship Supplement, the prevalence of financial difficulties and work modifications was examined. Logistic regression and survey weights were used to model these outcomes as functions of sociodemographic and health covariates separately among survivors in active treatment and survivors under age 65 years. Among all survivors, 33.2% reported any financial concern, with 17.9% reporting financial difficulties such as debt or bankruptcy. Among working survivors, 44.0% made any work modification and 15.3% made long-term work modifications (e.g., delayed or early retirement). Among those in active treatment, predictors of financial difficulty included: race/ethnicity other than white, non-Hispanic [OR = 8.0; 95% CI 2.2-28.4]; income <200% of federal poverty level (FPL) [OR = 15.7; 95% CI 2.6-95.2] or between 200 and 400% of FPL [OR = 8.2; 95% CI 1.3-51.4]; residence in a non-metropolitan service area [OR = 6.4; 95% CI 1.6-25.0]; and good/fair/poor self-rated health [OR = 3.8; 95% CI 1.0-14.2]. Among survivors under age 65 years, predictors of long-term work modifications included good/fair/poor self-rated health [OR = 4.1; 95% CI 1.6-10.2], being married [OR = 2.2; 95% CI 1.0-4.7], uninsured [OR = 3.5; 95% CI 1.3-9.3], or publicly insured [OR = 9.0; 95% CI 3.3-24.4]. A substantial proportion of cancer survivors experience cancer-related financial difficulties and work modifications, particularly those who report race/ethnicity other than white, non-Hispanic, residence in non-metropolitan areas, worse health status, lower income, and public or no health insurance. Attention to the economic impact of cancer treatment is warranted across the survivorship trajectory, with particular attention to subgroups at higher risk

Smartphone App–Delivered Mindfulness-Based Intervention for Mild Traumatic Brain Injury in Adolescents: Protocol for a Feasibility Randomized Controlled Trial

BackgroundConcussion in children and adolescents is a significant public health concern, with 30% to 35% of patients at risk for prolonged emotional, cognitive, sleep, or physical symptoms. These symptoms negatively impact a child’s quality of life while interfering with their participation in important neurodevelopmental activities such as schoolwork, socializing, and sports. Early psychological intervention following a concussion may improve the ability to regulate emotions and adapt to postinjury symptoms, resulting in the greater acceptance of change; reduced stress; and recovery of somatic, emotional, and cognitive symptoms. ObjectiveThe primary objective of this study is to assess the feasibility of conducting a parallel-group (1:1) randomized controlled trial (RCT) to evaluate a digital therapeutics (DTx) mindfulness-based intervention (MBI) in adolescents aged 12 to <18 years. The attention-matched comparator intervention (a math game also used in previous RCTs) will be delivered on the same DTx platform. Both groups will be provided with the standard of care guidelines. The secondary objective is to examine intervention trends for quality of life; resilience; self-efficacy; cognition such as attention, working memory, and executive functioning; symptom burden; and anxiety and depression scores at 4 weeks after concussion, which will inform a more definitive RCT. A subsample will be used to examine whether those randomized to the experimental intervention group have different brain-based imaging patterns compared with those randomized to the control group. MethodsThis study is a double-blind Health Canada–regulated trial. A total of 70 participants will be enrolled within 7 days of concussion and randomly assigned to receive the 4-week DTx MBI (experimental group) or comparator intervention. Feasibility will be assessed based on the recruitment rate, treatment adherence to both interventions, and retention. All outcome measures will be evaluated before the intervention (within 7 days after injury) and at 1, 2, and 4 weeks after the injury. A subset of 60 participants will undergo magnetic resonance imaging within 72 hours and at 4 weeks after recruitment to identify the neurophysiological mechanisms underlying the potential benefits from MBI training in adolescents following a concussion. ResultsThe recruitment began in October 2022, and the data collection is expected to be completed by September 2024. Data collection and management is still in progress; therefore, data analysis is yet to be conducted. ConclusionsThis trial will confirm the feasibility and resolve uncertainties to inform a future definitive multicenter efficacy RCT. If proven effective, a smartphone-based MBI has the potential to be an accessible and low-risk preventive treatment for youth at risk of experiencing prolonged postconcussion symptoms and complications. Trial RegistrationClinicalTrials.gov NCT05105802; https://classic.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05105802 International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID)DERR1-10.2196/5722

Effects of local meteorology and aerosols on ozone and nitrogen dioxide retrievals from OMI and pandora spectrometers in Maryland, USA during DISCOVER-AQ 2011

An analysis is presented for both ground- and satellite-based retrievals of total column ozone and nitrogen dioxide levels from the Washington, D.C., and Baltimore, Maryland, metropolitan area during the NASA-sponsored July 2011 campaign of Deriving Information on Surface COnditions from Column and VERtically Resolved Observations Relevant to Air Quality (DISCOVER-AQ). Satellite retrievals of total column ozone and nitrogen dioxide from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on the Aura satellite are used, while Pandora spectrometers provide total column ozone and nitrogen dioxide amounts from the ground. We found that OMI and Pandora agree well (residuals within ±25 % for nitrogen dioxide, and ±4.5 % for ozone) for a majority of coincident observations during July 2011. Comparisons with surface nitrogen dioxide from a Teledyne API 200 EU NOx Analyzer showed nitrogen dioxide diurnal variability that was consistent with measurements by Pandora. However, the wide OMI field of view, clouds, and aerosols affected retrievals on certain days, resulting in differences between Pandora and OMI of up to ±65 % for total column nitrogen dioxide, and ±23 % for total column ozone. As expected, significant cloud cover (cloud fraction \u3e0.2) was the most important parameter affecting comparisons of ozone retrievals; however, small, passing cumulus clouds that do not coincide with a high (\u3e0.2) cloud fraction, or low aerosol layers which cause significant backscatter near the ground affected the comparisons of total column nitrogen dioxide retrievals. Our results will impact post-processing satellite retrieval algorithms and quality control procedures