Capital structure, firm liquidity and growth

This paper is an exploration of the relationships among the firm's financial structure, its choice of liquid asset holdings, and growth. We present a theoretical model of the firm where external finance is costly and where retaining earnings as liquid assets serves a precautionary motive. One of the predictions of this model is that a long-term reliance on high levels of debt finance tends to be associated with high levels of liquid asset holding. We test this empirically by estimating the determinants of liquid asset holdings using panel data sets of Belgian and UK firms. We find evidence of a positive relation between leverage and liquid asset holding. This result leads us to identify a possible linkage from high debt to high liquidity to slow growth. In light of this we discuss the possible implications of the development of stock markets, private equity, and venture capital markets.

A Comparative Study of Structural Models of Corporate Bond Yields: An Exploratory Investigation

This paper empirically compares a variety of firm-value-based models of contingent claims. We formulate a general model which takes the perpetual coupon bond models of Merton (1974), Leland (1994) and Anderson, Sundaresan and Tychon (1996), as well as some immediate generalizations thereof, as special cases. We estimate these using aggregate time series data for the US corporate bond market, monthly, from August 1970 through December 1996. The data are average yields for industrial corporate bonds rated BBB, Treasury yields, leverage measures derived from the Flow of Funds Accounts, interest coverage measures derived from the National Income Accounts, and volatility measures derived from the stock market. In the basic specification with constant default free rates, we find that models with endogenous bankruptcy barriers (the Leland and the Anderson, Sundaresan and Tychon models) fit quite well. Thus, in these models, variations of leverage and asset volatility are found to account for much of the time-series variations of observed corporate yields. We then use the estimates to calculate the implied probability of default within N years. We find under plausible assumptions on the market risk-premium for levered firms that the models produce default probabilities for 5 years or more which are in line with the historical experience reported by Moodys.Contingent Claims Analysis; Corporate Bonds; Credit Risk

Stochastic Infinite Horizon Forecasts for Social Security and Related Studies

This paper consists of three reports on stochastic forecasting for Social Security, on infinite horizons, immigration, and structural time series models. 1) In our preferred stochastic immigration forecast, total net immigration drops from current levels down to about one million by 2020, then slowly rises to 1.2 million at the end of the century, with 95% probability bounds of 800,000 to 1.8 million at the century's end. Adding stochastic immigration makes little difference to the probability distribution of the old age dependency ratio. 2) We incorporate parameter uncertainty, stochastic trends, and uncertain ultimate levels in stochastic models of wage growth and fertility. These changes sometimes substantially affect the probability distributions of the individual input forecasts, but they make relatively little difference when embedded in the more fully stochastic Social Security projection. 3) Using a 500-year stochastic projection, we estimate an infinite horizon balance of -5.15% of payroll, compared to the -3.5% of the 2004 Trustees Report, probably reflecting different mortality projections. Our 95% probability interval bounds are -10.5 and -1.3%. Such forecasts, which reflect only "routine" uncertainty, have many problems but nonetheless seem worthwhile.

The effects of cyclic nucleotides and agents which affect their intracellular accumulation on neutrophil motility

A Thesis Submitted to the Faculty of Medicine University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy,The cell type exclusively dealt with in this thesis is the human blood neutrophil, which is also referred to in the text as polymorphonuclear leukocyte (PMN). The experimental work in this thesis has been accomplished using one immunological and a number of biochemical investigative techniques. The former is the Boyden technique (Boyden, 1962) for the quantitative assessment of leucocyte motility.IT201

Gender Equity in Intercollegiate Athletics: Determinants of Title IX Compliance

Using new data on intercollegiate athletes, this article shows that recent improvement in Title IX compliance among NCAA Division I institutions was previously overestimated, and provides the first estimates of compliance in Divisions II and III. In addition, regression analyses investigate how institutional characteristics relate to the extent of non-compliance

The Internationalization of the Renminbi

This special paper discusses the inclusion of the Chinese Renminbi in the international reserve asset Special Drawing Right (SDR) created by the International Monetary Fund

Stochastic Forecasts of the Social Security Trust Fund

We present stochastic forecasts of the Social Security trust fund by modeling key demographic and economic variables as historical time series, and using the fitted models to generate computer simulations of future fund performance. We evaluate several plans for achieving long-term solvency by raising the normal retirement age (NRA), increasing taxes, or investing some portion of the fund in the stock market. Stochastic population trajectories by age and sex are generated using the Lee-Carter and Lee- Tuljapurkar mortality and fertility models. Interest rates, wage growth and equities returns are modeled as vector autoregressive processes. With the exception of mortality, central tendencies are constrained to the Intermediate assumptions of the 2002 Trustees Report. Combining population forecasts with forecasted per-capita tax and benefit profiles by age and sex, we obtain inflows to and outflows from the fund over time, resulting in stochastic fund trajectories and distributions. Under current legislation, we estimate the chance of insolvency by 2038 to be 50%, although the expected fund balance stays positive until 2041. An immediate 2% increase in the payroll tax rate from 12.4% to 14.4% sustains a positive expected fund balance until 2078, with a 50% chance of solvency through 2064. Investing 60% of the fund in the S&P 500 by 2015 keeps the expected fund balance positive until 2060, with a 50% chance of solvency through 2042. An increase in the NRA to age 69 by 2024 keeps the expected fund balance positive until 2047, with a 50% chance of solvency through 2041. A combination of raising the payroll tax to 13.4%, increasing the NRA to 69 by 2024, and investing 25% of the fund in equities by 2015 keeps the expected fund balance positive past 2101 with a 50% chance of solvency through 2077.