A markov model to evaluate hospital readmission

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The analysis of non-fatal recurring events is frequently found in studies on chronic-degenerative diseases. The aim of this paper is to estimate the probability of readmission of patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) or with Respiratory Failure (RF).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The Repeated hospital admissions of a patient are considered as a Markov Chain. The transitions between the states are estimated using the Nelson-Aalen estimator. The analysis was carried out using the Puglia Region hospital patient discharge database for the years 1998–2005. Patients were selected on the basis of first admission between 01/01/2001 and 31/12/2005 with ICD-9-CM code of COPD or RF as principal and/or secondary diagnosis. For those selected two possible transitions were considered in the case they had the second and third admission with an ICD-9-CM code of COPD or RF as principal diagnosis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The probability of readmission is increased in patients with a diagnosis of RF (OR = 1.618 in the first transition and 1.279 in the second) and also in those with a diagnosis of COPD or RF as the principal diagnosis at first admission (OR = 1.615 in the first transition and 1.193 in the second). The clinical gravity and the ward from which they were discharged did not significantly influence the probability of readmission.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The time to readmission depends on the gravity of the pathology at onset. In patients with a grave clinical picture, either COPD or Respiratory Failure, when treated and controlled after the first admission, they become minor problems and they are indicated among secondary diagnoses in any further admission.</p

Multi-state models and arthroplasty histories after unilateral total hip arthroplasties: Introducing the Summary Notation for Arthroplasty Histories

Background and purpose: An increasing number of patients have several joint replacement procedures during their lifetime. We investigated the use and suitability of multi-state model techniques in providing a more comprehensive analysis and description of complex arthroplasty histories held in arthroplasty registries than are allowed for with traditional survival methods. Patients and methods: We obtained data from the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry on patients (n = 84,759) who had undergone a total hip arthroplasty for osteoarthritis in the period 2002–2008. We set up a multi-state model where patients were followed from their first recorded arthroplasty to several possible states: revision of first arthroplasty, either a hip or knee as second arthroplasty, revision of the second arthroplasty, and death. The Summary Notation for Arthroplasty Histories (SNAH) was developed in order to help to manage and analyze this type of data. Results: At the end of the study period, 12% of the 84,759 patients had received a second hip, 3 times as many as had received a knee. The estimated probabilities of having received a second arthroplasty decreased with age. Males had a lower transition rate for receiving a second arthroplasty, but a higher mortality rate. Interpretation: Multi-state models in combination with SNAH codes are well suited to the management and analysis of arthroplasty registry data on patients who experience multiple joint procedures over time. We found differences in the progression of joint replacement procedures after the initial total hip arthroplasty regarding type of joint, age, and sex.Marianne H Gillam, Philip Ryan, Amy Salter, Stephen E Grave

Dynamic predicting by landmarking as an alternative for multi-state modeling: an application to acute lymphoid leukemia data

This paper considers the problem of obtaining a dynamic prediction for 5-year failure free survival after bone marrow transplantation in ALL patients using data from the EBMT, the European Group for Blood and Marrow Transplantation. The paper compares the new landmark methodology as developed by the first author and the established multi-state modeling as described in a recent Tutorial in Biostatistics in Statistics in Medicine by the second author and colleagues. As expected the two approaches give similar results. The landmark methodology does not need complex modeling and leads to easy prediction rules. On the other hand, it does not give the insight in the biological processes as obtained for the multi-state model

Evaluation of energy and dietary intake estimates from a food frequency questionnaire using independent energy expenditure measurement and weighed food records

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>We have developed a food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) for the assessment of habitual diet, with special focus on the intake of fruit, vegetables and other antioxidant-rich foods and beverages. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the relative validity of the intakes of energy, food and nutrients from the FFQ.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Energy intake was evaluated against independent measures of energy expenditure using the ActiReg^®system (motion detection), whereas 7-days weighed food records were used to study the relative validity of food and nutrient intake. The relationship between methods was investigated using correlation analyses and cross-classification of participants. The visual agreement between the methods was evaluated using Bland-Altman plots.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We observed that the FFQ underestimated the energy intake by approximately 11% compared to the energy expenditure measured by the ActiReg^®. The correlation coefficient between energy intake and energy expenditure was 0.54 and 32% of the participants were defined as under-reporters. Compared to the weighed food records the percentages of energy from fat and added sugar from the FFQ were underestimated, whereas the percentage of energy from total carbohydrates and protein were slightly overestimated. The intake of foods rich in antioxidants did not vary significantly between the FFQ and weighed food records, with the exceptions of berries, coffee, tea and vegetables which were overestimated. Spearman's Rank Order Correlations between FFQ and weighed food records were 0.41 for berries, 0.58 for chocolate, 0.78 for coffee, 0.61 for fruit, 0.57 for fruit and berry juices, 0.40 for nuts, 0.74 for tea, 0.38 for vegetables and 0.70 for the intake of wine.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our new FFQ provides a good estimate of the average energy intake and it obtains valid data on average intake of most antioxidant-rich foods and beverages. Our study also showed that the FFQs ability to rank participants according to intake of total antioxidants and most of the antioxidant-rich foods was good.</p

An exploratory randomised controlled trial of a premises-level intervention to reduce alcohol-related harm including violence in the United Kingdom

&lt;b&gt;Background&lt;/b&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; To assess the feasibility of a randomised controlled trial of a licensed premises intervention to reduce severe intoxication and disorder; to establish effect sizes and identify appropriate approaches to the development and maintenance of a rigorous research design and intervention implementation.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;b&gt;Methods&lt;/b&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; An exploratory two-armed parallel randomised controlled trial with a nested process evaluation. An audit of risk factors and a tailored action plan for high risk premises, with three month follow up audit and feedback. Thirty-two premises that had experienced at least one assault in the year prior to the intervention were recruited, match paired and randomly allocated to control or intervention group. Police violence data and data from a street survey of study premises’ customers, including measures of breath alcohol concentration and surveyor rated customer intoxication, were used to assess effect sizes for a future definitive trial. A nested process evaluation explored implementation barriers and the fidelity of the intervention with key stakeholders and senior staff in intervention premises using semi-structured interviews.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;b&gt;Results&lt;/b&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; The process evaluation indicated implementation barriers and low fidelity, with a reluctance to implement the intervention and to submit to a formal risk audit. Power calculations suggest the intervention effect on violence and subjective intoxication would be raised to significance with a study size of 517 premises.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;b&gt;Conclusions&lt;/b&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; It is methodologically feasible to conduct randomised controlled trials where licensed premises are the unit of allocation. However, lack of enthusiasm in senior premises staff indicates the need for intervention enforcement, rather than voluntary agreements, and on-going strategies to promote sustainability

Competing risks survival analysis applied to data from the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The Kaplan-Meier (KM) method is often used in the analysis of arthroplasty registry data to estimate the probability of revision after a primary procedure. In the presence of a competing risk such as death, KM is known to overestimate the probability of revision. We investigated the degree to which the risk of revision is overestimated in registry data. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We compared KM estimates of risk of revision with the cumulative incidence function (CIF), which takes account of death as a competing risk. We considered revision by (1) prosthesis type in subjects aged 75–84 years with fractured neck of femur (FNOF), (2) cement use in monoblock prostheses for FNOF, and (3) age group in patients undergoing total hip arthroplasty (THA) for osteoarthritis (OA). RESULTS: In 5,802 subjects aged 75–84 years with a monoblock prosthesis for FNOF, the estimated risk of revision at 5 years was 6.3% by KM and 4.3% by CIF, a relative difference (RD) of 46%. In 9,821 subjects of all ages receiving an Austin Moore (non-cemented) prosthesis for FNOF, the RD at 5 years was 52% and for 3,116 subjects with a Thompson (cemented) prosthesis, the RD was 79%. In 44,365 subjects with a THA for OA who were less than 70 years old, the RD was just 1.4%; for 47,430 subjects > 70 years of age, the RD was 4.6% at 5 years. INTERPRETATION: The Kaplan-Meier method substantially overestimated the risk of revision compared to estimates using competing risk methods when the risk of death was high. The bias increased with time as the incidence of the competing risk of death increased. Registries should adopt methods of analysis appropriate to the nature of their data.Marianne H. Gillam, Philip Ryan, Stephen E. Graves, Lisa N. Miller, Richard N. de Steiger and Amy Salte

A copula model for marked point processes

The final publication (Diao, Liqun, Richard J. Cook, and Ker-Ai Lee. (2013) A copula model for marked point processes. Lifetime Data Analysis, 19(4): 463-489) is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10985-013-9259-3Many chronic diseases feature recurring clinically important events. In addition, however, there often exists a random variable which is realized upon the occurrence of each event reflecting the severity of the event, a cost associated with it, or possibly a short term response indicating the effect of a therapeutic intervention. We describe a novel model for a marked point process which incorporates a dependence between continuous marks and the event process through the use of a copula function. The copula formulation ensures that event times can be modeled by any intensity function for point processes, and any multivariate model can be specified for the continuous marks. The relative efficiency of joint versus separate analyses of the event times and the marks is examined through simulation under random censoring. An application to data from a recent trial in transfusion medicine is given for illustration.Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (RGPIN 155849); Canadian Institutes for Health Research (FRN 13887); Canada Research Chair (Tier 1) – CIHR funded (950-226626

The reduction of intoxication and disorder in premises licensed to serve alcohol: An exploratory randomised controlled trial

Background: Licensed premises offer a valuable point of intervention to reduce alcohol-related harm. Objective: To describe the research design for an exploratory trial examining the feasibility and acceptability of a premises-level intervention designed to reduce severe intoxication and related disorder. The study also aims to assess the feasibility of a potential future large scale effectiveness trial and provide information on key trial design parameters including inclusion criteria, premises recruitment methods, strategies to implement the intervention and trial design, outcome measures, data collection methods and intra-cluster correlations. Design: A randomised controlled trial in licensed premises that had experienced at least one assault in the year preceding the intervention, documented in police or hospital Emergency Department (ED) records. Premises were recruited from four study areas by piloting four recruitment strategies of varying intensity. Thirty two licensed premises were grouped into matched pairs to reduce potential bias and randomly allocated to the control or intervention condition. The study included a nested process evaluation to provide information on intervention acceptability and implementation. Outcome measures included police-recorded violent incidents, assault-related attendances at each premises' local ED and patron Breath Alcohol Concentration assessed on exiting and entering study premises. Results: The most successful recruitment method involved local police licensing officers and yielded a 100% success rate. Police-records of violence provided the most appropriate source of data about disorder at the premises level. Conclusion: The methodology of an exploratory trial is presented and despite challenges presented by the study environment it is argued an exploratory trial is warranted. Initial investigations in recruitment methods suggest that study premises should be recruited with the assistance of police officers. Police data were of sufficient quality to identify disorder and street surveys are a feasible method for measuring intoxication at the individual level