On the existence of accessible paths in various models of fitness landscapes

We present rigorous mathematical analyses of a number of well-known mathematical models for genetic mutations. In these models, the genome is represented by a vertex of the $n$-dimensional binary hypercube, for some $n$, a mutation involves the flipping of a single bit, and each vertex is assigned a real number, called its fitness, according to some rules. Our main concern is with the issue of existence of (selectively) accessible paths; that is, monotonic paths in the hypercube along which fitness is always increasing. Our main results resolve open questions about three such models, which in the biophysics literature are known as house of cards (HoC), constrained house of cards (CHoC) and rough Mount Fuji (RMF). We prove that the probability of there being at least one accessible path from the all-zeroes node $\mathbf {v}^0$ to the all-ones node $\mathbf {v}^1$ tends respectively to 0, 1 and 1, as $n$ tends to infinity. A crucial idea is the introduction of a generalization of the CHoC model, in which the fitness of $\mathbf {v}^0$ is set to some $\alpha=\alpha_n\in[0,1]$. We prove that there is a very sharp threshold at $\alpha_n=\frac{\ln n}{n}$ for the existence of accessible paths from $\mathbf {v}^0$ to $\mathbf {v}^1$. As a corollary we prove significant concentration, for $\alpha$ below the threshold, of the number of accessible paths about the expected value (the precise statement is technical; see Corollary 1.4). In the case of RMF, we prove that the probability of accessible paths from $\mathbf {v}^0$ to $\mathbf {v}^1$ existing tends to $1$ provided the drift parameter $\theta=\theta_n$ satisfies $n\theta_n\rightarrow\infty$, and for any fitness distribution which is continuous on its support and whose support is connected.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/13-AAP949 the Annals of Applied Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aap/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Permutations destroying arithmetic progressions in finite cyclic groups

A permutation \pi of an abelian group G is said to destroy arithmetic progressions (APs) if, whenever (a,b,c) is a non-trivial 3-term AP in G, that is c-b=b-a and a,b,c are not all equal, then (\pi(a),\pi(b),\pi(c)) is not an AP. In a paper from 2004, the first author conjectured that such a permutation exists of Z/nZ, for all n except 2,3,5 and 7. Here we prove, as a special case of a more general result, that such a permutation exists for all n >= n_0, for some explcitly constructed number n_0 \approx 1.4 x 10^{14}. We also construct such a permutation of Z/pZ for all primes p > 3 such that p = 3 (mod 8).Comment: 11 pages, no figure

How well do we know the age and mass distributions of the star cluster system in the Large Magellanic Cloud?

[ABRIDGED] The LMC star cluster system offers the unique opportunity to independently check the accuracy of age and mass determinations based on a number of complementary techniques, including isochrone analysis. Using our sophisticated tool for star cluster analysis based on broad-band spectral energy distributions (SEDs), we reanalyse the Hunter et al. (2003) LMC cluster photometry. Our main aim is to set the tightest limits yet on the accuracy of ABSOLUTE age determinations based on broad-band SEDs, and therefore on the usefulness of such an approach. Our broad-band SED fits yield reliable ages, with statistical absolute uncertainties within Delta[log(Age/yr)] = 0.4 overall. The systematic differences we find with respect to previous age determinations are caused by conversions of the observational photometry to a different filter system. The LMC's cluster formation rate (CFR) has been roughly constant outside of the well-known age gap between ~3 and 13 Gyr, when the CFR was a factor of ~5 lower. We derive the characteristic cluster disruption time-scale, log(t_4^dis/yr) = 9.9 +- 0.1, where t_dis = t_4^dis (M_cl/10^4 Msun)^0.62. This long characteristic disruption time-scale implies that we are observing the INITIAL cluster mass function (CMF). We conclude that the youngest mass and luminosity-limited LMC cluster subsets show shallower slopes than the slope of alpha = -2 expected (at least below masses of a few x 10^3 Msun), which is contrary to dynamical expectations. This may imply that the initial CMF slope of the LMC cluster system as a whole is NOT well represented by a power-law, although we cannot disentangle the unbound from the bound clusters at the youngest ages.Comment: 14 pages, 8 figures, resubmitted to MNRAS after responding to referee repor

Income support systems, labour supply incentives and employment – some cross-country evidence

This paper summarizes a set of expert reports commissioned by the IFAU. The expert reports cover Estonia, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. These countries represent range of welfare states, both in terms of scope and design. And in each country there are interesting experiences from which other countries may learn. The overall objective is to identify policy tools that help generate sustained increases in employment in the long run. Therefore, we focus on policies that improve the incentives for labour force participation and reduce the barriers to participation.Labour force participation; employment; income support; long-run sustainability

The "No Justice in the Universe" phenomenon: why honesty of effort may not be rewarded in tournaments

In 2000 Allen Schwenk, using a well-known mathematical model of matchplay tournaments in which the probability of one player beating another in a single match is fixed for each pair of players, showed that the classical single-elimination, seeded format can be "unfair" in the sense that situations can arise where an indisputibly better (and thus higher seeded) player may have a smaller probability of winning the tournament than a worse one. This in turn implies that, if the players are able to influence their seeding in some preliminary competition, situations can arise where it is in a player's interest to behave "dishonestly", by deliberately trying to lose a match. This motivated us to ask whether it is possible for a tournament to be both honest, meaning that it is impossible for a situation to arise where a rational player throws a match, and "symmetric" - meaning basically that the rules treat everyone the same - yet unfair, in the sense that an objectively better player has a smaller probability of winning than a worse one. After rigorously defining our terms, our main result is that such tournaments exist and we construct explicit examples for any number n >= 3 of players. For n=3, we show (Theorem 3.6) that the collection of win-probability vectors for such tournaments form a 5-vertex convex polygon in R^3, minus some boundary points. We conjecture a similar result for any n >= 4 and prove some partial results towards it.Comment: 26 pages, 2 figure

A Unified Analysis of Stochastic Optimization Methods Using Jump System Theory and Quadratic Constraints

We develop a simple routine unifying the analysis of several important recently-developed stochastic optimization methods including SAGA, Finito, and stochastic dual coordinate ascent (SDCA). First, we show an intrinsic connection between stochastic optimization methods and dynamic jump systems, and propose a general jump system model for stochastic optimization methods. Our proposed model recovers SAGA, SDCA, Finito, and SAG as special cases. Then we combine jump system theory with several simple quadratic inequalities to derive sufficient conditions for convergence rate certifications of the proposed jump system model under various assumptions (with or without individual convexity, etc). The derived conditions are linear matrix inequalities (LMIs) whose sizes roughly scale with the size of the training set. We make use of the symmetry in the stochastic optimization methods and reduce these LMIs to some equivalent small LMIs whose sizes are at most 3 by 3. We solve these small LMIs to provide analytical proofs of new convergence rates for SAGA, Finito and SDCA (with or without individual convexity). We also explain why our proposed LMI fails in analyzing SAG. We reveal a key difference between SAG and other methods, and briefly discuss how to extend our LMI analysis for SAG. An advantage of our approach is that the proposed analysis can be automated for a large class of stochastic methods under various assumptions (with or without individual convexity, etc).Comment: To Appear in Proceedings of the Annual Conference on Learning Theory (COLT) 201

A variant of the multi-agent rendezvous problem

The classical multi-agent rendezvous problem asks for a deterministic algorithm by which $n$ points scattered in a plane can move about at constant speed and merge at a single point, assuming each point can use only the locations of the others it sees when making decisions and that the visibility graph as a whole is connected. In time complexity analyses of such algorithms, only the number of rounds of computation required are usually considered, not the amount of computation done per round. In this paper, we consider $\Omega(n^2 \log n)$ points distributed independently and uniformly at random in a disc of radius $n$ and, assuming each point can not only see but also, in principle, communicate with others within unit distance, seek a randomised merging algorithm which asymptotically almost surely (a.a.s.) runs in time O(n), in other words in time linear in the radius of the disc rather than in the number of points. Under a precise set of assumptions concerning the communication capabilities of neighboring points, we describe an algorithm which a.a.s. runs in time O(n) provided the number of points is $o(n^3)$. Several questions are posed for future work.Comment: 18 pages, 3 figures. None of the authors has any previous experience in this area of research (multi-agent systems), hence we welcome any feedback from specialist

The Hegselmann-Krause dynamics on the circle converge

We consider the Hegselmann-Krause dynamics on a one-dimensional torus and provide the first proof of convergence of this system. The proof requires only fairly minor modifications of existing methods for proving convergence in Euclidean space.Comment: 9 pages, 2 figures. Version 2: A small error in the proof of Theorem 1.1 is corrected and an acknowledgement added. Bibliography update

N-body simulations of star clusters

Two aspects of our recent N-body studies of star clusters are presented: (1) What impact does mass segregation and selective mass loss have on integrated photometry? (2) How well compare results from N-body simulations using NBODY4 and STARLAB/KIRA?Comment: 2 pages, 1 figure with 4 panels (in colour, not well visible in black-and-white; figures screwed in PDF version, ok in postscript; to see further details get the paper source). Conference proceedings for IAUS246 'Dynamical Evolution of Dense Stellar Systems', ed. E. Vesperini (Chief Editor), M. Giersz, A. Sills, Capri, Sept. 2007; v2: references correcte