Seasonal forecasting of green water components and crop yields of winter wheat in Serbia and Austria

A probabilistic crop forecast based on ensembles of crop model output (CMO) estimates offers a myriad of possible realizations and probabilistic forecasts of green water components (precipitation and evapotranspiration), crop yields and green water footprints (GWFs) on monthly or seasonal scales. The present paper presents part of the results of an ongoing study related to the application of ensemble forecasting concepts for agricultural production. The methodology used to produce the ensemble CMO using the ensemble seasonal weather forecasts as the crop model input meteorological data without the perturbation of initial soil or crop conditions is presented and tested for accuracy, as are its results. The selected case study is for winter wheat growth in Austria and Serbia during the 2006–2014 period modelled with the SIRIUS crop model. The historical seasonal forecasts for a 6-month period (1 March-31 August) were collected for the period 2006–2014 and were assimilated from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast and the Meteorological Archival and Retrieval System. The seasonal ensemble forecasting results obtained for winter wheat phenology dynamics, yield and GWF showed a narrow range of estimates. These results indicate that the use of seasonal weather forecasting in agriculture and its applications for probabilistic crop forecasting can optimize field operations (e.g., soil cultivation, plant protection, fertilizing, irrigation) and takes advantage of the predictions of crop development and yield a few weeks or months in advance

A simulation analysis to characterize the dynamics of vaccinating behaviour on contact networks

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Human behavior influences infectious disease transmission, and numerous "prevalence-behavior" models have analyzed this interplay. These previous analyses assumed homogeneously mixing populations without spatial or social structure. However, spatial and social heterogeneity are known to significantly impact transmission dynamics and are particularly relevant for certain diseases. Previous work has demonstrated that social contact structure can change the individual incentive to vaccinate, thus enabling eradication of a disease under a voluntary vaccination policy when the corresponding homogeneous mixing model predicts that eradication is impossible due to free rider effects. Here, we extend this work and characterize the range of possible behavior-prevalence dynamics on a network.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We simulate transmission of a vaccine-prevetable infection through a random, static contact network. Individuals choose whether or not to vaccinate on any given day according to perceived risks of vaccination and infection.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We find three possible outcomes for behavior-prevalence dynamics on this type of network: small final number vaccinated and final epidemic size (due to rapid control through voluntary ring vaccination); large final number vaccinated and significant final epidemic size (due to imperfect voluntary ring vaccination), and little or no vaccination and large final epidemic size (corresponding to little or no voluntary ring vaccination). We also show that the social contact structure enables eradication under a broad range of assumptions, except when vaccine risk is sufficiently high, the disease risk is sufficiently low, or individuals vaccinate too late for the vaccine to be effective.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>For populations where infection can spread only through social contact network, relatively small differences in parameter values relating to perceived risk or vaccination behavior at the individual level can translate into large differences in population-level outcomes such as final size and final number vaccinated. The qualitative outcome of rational, self interested behaviour under a voluntary vaccination policy can vary substantially depending on interactions between social contact structure, perceived vaccine and disease risks, and the way that individual vaccination decision-making is modelled.</p

Social Contact Networks and Disease Eradicability under Voluntary Vaccination

Certain theories suggest that it should be difficult or impossible to eradicate a vaccine-preventable disease under voluntary vaccination: Herd immunity implies that the individual incentive to vaccinate disappears at high coverage levels. Historically, there have been examples of declining coverage for vaccines, such as MMR vaccine and whole-cell pertussis vaccine, that are consistent with this theory. On the other hand, smallpox was globally eradicated by 1980 despite voluntary vaccination policies in many jurisdictions. Previous modeling studies of the interplay between disease dynamics and individual vaccinating behavior have assumed that infection is transmitted in a homogeneously mixing population. By comparison, here we simulate transmission of a vaccine-preventable SEIR infection through a random, static contact network. Individuals choose whether to vaccinate based on infection risks from neighbors, and based on vaccine risks. When neighborhood size is small, rational vaccinating behavior results in rapid containment of the infection through voluntary ring vaccination. As neighborhood size increases (while the average force of infection is held constant), a threshold is reached beyond which the infection can break through partially vaccinated rings, percolating through the whole population and resulting in considerable epidemic final sizes and a large number vaccinated. The former outcome represents convergence between individually and socially optimal outcomes, whereas the latter represents their divergence, as observed in most models of individual vaccinating behavior that assume homogeneous mixing. Similar effects are observed in an extended model using smallpox-specific natural history and transmissibility assumptions. This work illustrates the significant qualitative differences between behavior–infection dynamics in discrete contact-structured populations versus continuous unstructured populations. This work also shows how disease eradicability in populations where voluntary vaccination is the primary control mechanism may depend partly on whether the disease is transmissible only to a few close social contacts or to a larger subset of the population

Comparative analysis of UV-C/H2O2 and UV-A/TiO2 processes for the degradation of diclofenac in water

The study investigates the treatment of diclofenac (DCF), a pharmaceutical included in the first watch list of the European Water Framework Directive as a new potential priority substance in water. Since the conventional wastewater treatment technologies do not efficiently remove DCF, advanced treatment technologies capable of its complete removal or destruction of its biological activity, need to be evaluated and eventually employed. For that purpose, typical representatives of photooxidative and photocatalytic advanced oxidation processes were applied. The effectiveness of UV-C/H2O2 and UV-A/TiO2 were compared regarding DCF conversion and mineralization kinetics, water quality parameters for assessing biodegradability and toxicity. In spite of similar biodegradability profiles, the obtained results indicate different DCF degradation pathways, which are reflected in different profiles of toxicity towards Vibrio fischeri. The observed DCF conversion and mineralization kinetics revealed the benefits of UV-C/H2O2 process. However, lower toxicity favored the application of photocatalytic over photooxidative treatment for DCF removal

mechanisms, pathways and environmental aspects

The study explores the potential of immobilized TiO2-based zeolite composite photocatalyst (TiO2-FeZ) made of commercial AEROXIDE TiO2 P25 and iron-exchanged zeolite of ZSM5 type (FeZ), for solar assisted treatment of diclofenac (DCF), pharmaceutical included in the ‘‘watch list” during last prioritization in water legislation by EU. In this study the efficiency of applied photocatalytic treatment, solar/TiO2-FeZ/H2O2, of DCF water solution was evaluated on basis of DCF removal and conversion kinetics, as well as the changes of common parameters for assessing water quality. Hence, the changes in the removal and mineralization of overall organic content, biodegradability, toxicity to Vibrio fischeri, dechlorination of DCF and its formed by-products, were monitored during the treatment. The obtained data were correlated with the evolution of DCF by-products, identified and monitored during the treatment by HPLC/MSMS analysis. In order to estimate the influence of water matrix, all experiments were performed in the presence of chloride or sulphate as counter ions. The obtained data revealed that degradation mechanism of DCF by applied treatment process using immobilized TiO2-FeZ includes the adsorption onto photocatalyst surface and consequent degradation. The contribution of homogeneous Fenton reaction due to leached iron ions was found to be negligible. The adsorption and degradation pathway of DCF were influenced by the type of counter ions, which was reflected in the observed changes of water quality parameters

Overexpression of Cytosolic Group IVA Phospholipase A2 Protects Cells from Ca2+-dependent Death

The calcium ionophore ionomycin induces apoptosis-like events in the human embryonic kidney cell line at early times. Plasma membrane blebbing,mitochondrial depolarization, externalization of phosphatidylserine, and nuclear permeability changes can all be observed within 15 min of treatment. However, there is no activa-tion of caspases or chromatin condensation. Expression of a fusion protein containing the enhanced green fluorescent protein (EGFP) and human cytosolic Group IVA phospholipase A2 (EGFP-cPLA2) in these cells prevents ionomycin-induced phosphatidyl-serine externalization and death. Cells expressing the cPLA2 mutant D43N, which does not bind calcium, retain their suscepti-bility to ionomycin-induced cell death. Both nonexpressing and EGFP-D43N-cPLA2-expressing human embryonic kidney cells can be spared from ionomycin-induced cell death by pretreating them with exogenous arachidonic acid. Moreover, during calciu

Expression associates with inflammation in early atherosclerosis in humans and can be therapeutically silenced to reduce NF-κB activation and atherogenesis in mice

Background:\ua0Chronic activation of the innate immune system drives inflammation and contributes directly to atherosclerosis. Previously, we showed that macrophages in the atherogenic plaque undergo RIPK3-MLKL-dependent programmed necroptosis in response to sterile ligands such as oxidized LDL and damage-associated patterns (DAMPs) and necroptosis is active in advanced atherosclerotic plaques. Upstream of the RIPK3-MLKL necroptotic machinery lies RIPK1, which acts as a master switch that controls whether the cell undergoes NFκB-dependent inflammation, caspase-dependent apoptosis or necroptosis in response to extracellular stimuli. We therefore set out to investigate the role of RIPK1 in the development of atherosclerosis, which is largely driven by NFκB-dependent inflammation at early stages. We hypothesize that, unlike RIPK3 and MLKL, RIPK1 primarily drives NFκB-dependent inflammation in early atherogenic lesions and knocking down RIPK1 will reduce inflammatory cell activation and protect against the progression of atherosclerosis.Methods:\ua0We examined expression of RIPK1 protein and mRNA in both human and mouse atherosclerotic lesions, and using loss-of-function approaches in vitro in macrophages and endothelial cells to measure inflammatory responses. We administered weekly injections of RIPK1 anti-sense oligonucleotides (ASO) to\ua0Apoe-/-\ua0mice fed a cholesterol-rich (Western) diet for 8 weeks.Results:\ua0We find RIPK1 expression is abundant in early-stage atherosclerotic lesions in both humans and mice. Treatment with RIPK1 ASOs led to a reduction in aortic sinus and\ua0en face\ua0lesion areas (47.2% or 58.8% decrease relative to control,