Evaluation of classification and regression tree (CART) model in weight loss prediction following head and neck cancer radiation therapy

Objective: We explore whether a knowledge–discovery approach building a Classification and Regression Tree (CART) prediction model for weight loss (WL) in head and neck cancer (HNC) patients treated with radiation therapy (RT) is feasible. Methods and materials: HNC patients from 2007 to 2015 were identified from a prospectively collected database Oncospace. Two prediction models at different time points were developed to predict weight loss ≥5 kg at 3 months post-RT by CART algorithm: (1) during RT planning using patient demographic, delineated dose data, planning target volume–organs at risk shape relationships data and (2) at the end of treatment (EOT) using additional on-treatment toxicities and quality of life data. Results: Among 391 patients identified, WL predictors during RT planning were International Classification of Diseases diagnosis; dose to masticatory and superior constrictor muscles, larynx, and parotid; and age. At EOT, patient-reported oral intake, diagnosis, N stage, nausea, pain, dose to larynx, parotid, and low-dose planning target volume–larynx distance were significant predictive factors. The area under the curve during RT and EOT was 0.773 and 0.821, respectively. Conclusions: We demonstrate the feasibility and potential value of an informatics infrastructure that has facilitated insight into the prediction of WL using the CART algorithm. The prediction accuracy significantly improved with the inclusion of additional treatment-related data and has the potential to be leveraged as a strategy to develop a learning health system

Prostate-Specific Membrane Antigen PET Response Associates with Metastasis-Free Survival After Stereotactic Ablative Radiation in Oligometastatic Prostate Cancer

Purpose: Emerging data suggest that metastasis-directed therapy (MDT) improves outcomes in patients with oligometastatic castration-sensitive prostate cancer (omCSPC). Prostate-specific membrane antigen positron emission tomography (PSMA-PET) can detect occult metastatic disease, and PSMA response has been proposed as a biomarker for treatment response. Herein, we identify and validate a PSMA-PET biomarker for metastasis-free survival (MFS) following MDT in omCSPC. Methods and Materials: We performed an international multi-institutional retrospective study of patients with omCSPC, defined as ≤3 lesions, treated with metastasis-directed stereotactic ablative radiation who underwent PSMA-PET/computed tomography (CT) before and after (median, 6.2 months; range, 2.4-10.9 months) treatment. Pre- and post-MDT PSMA-PET/CT maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax) was measured for all lesions, and PSMA response was defined as the percent change in SUVmax of the least responsive lesion. PSMA response was both evaluated as a continuous variable and dichotomized into PSMA responders, with a complete/partial response (at least a 30% reduction in SUVmax), and PSMA nonresponders, with stable/progressive disease (less than a 30% reduction in SUVmax). PSMA response was correlated with conventional imaging-defined metastasis-free survival (MFS) via Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analysis. Results: A total of 131 patients with 261 treated metastases were included in the analysis, with a median follow-up of 29 months (IQR, 18.5-41.3 months). After stereotactic ablative radiation, 70.2% of patients were classified as PSMA responders. Multivariable analysis demonstrated that PSMA response as a continuous variable was associated with a significantly worse MFS (hazard ratio = 1.003; 95% CI, 1.001-1.006; P = .016). Patients classified as PSMA responders were found to have a significantly improved median MFS of 39.9 versus 12 months (P = .001) compared with PSMA nonresponders. Our study is limited as it is a retrospective review of a heterogenous population. Conclusions: After stereotactic ablative radiation, PSMA-PET response appears to be a radiographic biomarker that correlates with MFS in omCSPC. This approach holds promise for guiding clinical management of omCSPC and should be validated in a prospective setting