The Endogeneity of Association Agreements and their Impact on Trade for Eastern Countries: Empirical Evidence for Romania

The main goal of regionalization is the creation of free trade areas and the guarantee for countries to accede to a widened market. Many studies dealing with the effects of regional free trade agreements on trade flows already exist in the economic literature and the explosion of regional agreements among nations has recently stressed the key role of regionalization. However, the effects of agreements on trade have not yet been clearly determined in those studies. Our research in this paper aims at reassessing the genuine role of associations. For this matter, we particularly study the association of Romania with European Union countries. Our econometric analysis based on qualitative choice models highlights in particular why European countries chose to conclude an association agreement with Romania, and stresses the fact that European Union countries select endogenously the conclusion of association agreements. We also find a 0.29 positive impact of the association agreement on Romanian export performances.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/57248/1/wp868 .pd

The Endogeneity of Association Agreements and their Impact on Trade for Eastern Countries: Empirical Evidence for Romania

The main goal of regionalization is the creation of free trade areas and the guarantee for countries to accede to a widened market. Many studies dealing with the effects of regional free trade agreements on trade flows already exist in the economic literature and the explosion of regional agreements among nations has recently stressed the key role of regionalization. However, the effects of agreements on trade have not yet been clearly determined in those studies. Our research in this paper aims at reassessing the genuine role of associations. For this matter, we particularly study the association of Romania with European Union countries. Our econometric analysis based on qualitative choice models highlights in particular why European countries chose to conclude an association agreement with Romania, and stresses the fact that European Union countries select endogenously the conclusion of association agreements. We also find a 0.29 positive impact of the association agreement on Romanian export performances.Regionalization, European integration, Qualitative choice models, Probit

Modeling International Trade Flows between CEEC and OECD Countries

This article deals with econometric developments for the estimation of gravity model, which allow to get convergent parameter estimates even when a correlation exists between the explanatory variables and the specific unobservable characteristics of each individual. We implement panel data econometric techniques to characterize bilateral trade flows between heterogeneous economies. Our econometric results based on a sample of 4 Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC-4) and 19 OECD countries over a 18-year period highlight the importance by taking into account the unobservable heterogeneity to obtain a robust empirical specification and unbiased coefficients.gravity models, unobservable heterogeneity, panel data models, international trade flows

On the Bilateral Trade Effects of Free Trade Agreements between the EU-15 and the CEEC-4 Countries

The expansion of regionalism has spawned an extensive theoretical literature analysing the effects of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) on trade flows. In this paper we focus on FTAs (also called European agreements) between the European Union (EU-15) and the Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC-4, i.e. Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland and Romania ) and model their effects on trade flows by treating the agreement variable as endogenous. Our theoretical framework is the gravity model, and the econometric method used to isolate and eliminate the potential endogeneity bias of the agreement variable is the fixed effect vector decomposition (FEVD) technique. Our estimation results indicate a positive and significant impact of FTAs on trade flows. This finding is robust to the inclusion in the sample of a group of control countries (specifically Belarus, the Russian Federation and Ukraine) that did not sign an FTA. Besides, we show that trade growth after the FTA agreement with the EU was signed exceeded trade growth of the control group of countries which did not become members.regionalisation, European integration, panel data methods

On the Bilateral Trade Effects of Free Trade Agreements between the EU-15 and the CEEC-4 Countries

The expansion of regionalism has spawned an extensive theoretical literature analysing the effects of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) on trade flows. In this paper we focus on FTAs (also called European agreements) between the European Union (EU-15) and the Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC-4, i.e. Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland and Romania) and model their effects on trade flows by treating the agreement variable as endogenous. Our theoretical framework is the gravity model, and the econometric method used to isolate and eliminate the potential endogeneity bias of the agreement variable is the fixed effect vector decomposition (FEVD) technique. Our estimation results indicate a positive and significant impact of FTAs on trade flows. This finding is robust to the inclusion in the sample of a group of control countries (specifically Belarus, the Russian Federation and Ukraine) that did not sign an FTA. Besides, we show that trade growth after the FTA agreement with the EU was signed exceeded trade growth of the control group of countries which did not become members.panel data methods, European integration, regionalisation

Environmental Regulation and Competitiveness: Evidence from Romania

According to the pollution haven hypotheses differences in environmental regulation affect trade flows and plant location. Specifically, environmental stringency should decrease exports and increase imports of "dirty" goods. This paper estimates a gravity model to establish whether the implementation of more stringent regulations in Romania has indeed affected its competitiveness and decreased exports towards its European trading partners. Our findings do not provide empirical support to the pollution haven hypothesis, i.e. environmental stringency is not found to affect significantly total trade, or its components (pollution intensive trade and pollution intensive trade related to non-resource-based trade).environmental stringency, competiveness, gravity model

Pollution Abatement and Control Expenditure in Romania: A Multilevel Analysis

The transition process in Central and Eastern Europe was associated with growing environmental awareness. This paper analyses the determinants of Pollution Abatement and Control Expenditure (PACE) at plant level in the case of Romania using survey data and a Multilevel Regression Model (MRM). Our findings suggest that, although Romania has improved its environmental performance, formal and informal regulation are still only partially developed due to the difficulties of economic transition, and heterogeneity across regions remains considerable.pollution abatement and control expenditure, transition economy, Multilevel Regression Model (MRM)

Determinants of Pollution Abatement and Control Expenditure: Evidence from Romania

The aim of the present study is to shed some light on the factors affecting Pollution Abatement and Control Expenditure (PACE) in the context of a transition economy such as Romania, in contrast to the existing literature which mostly focuses on developed economies. Specifically, we use survey data of the Romanian National Institute of Statistics and estimate Multilevel Regression Model (MRM) to investigate the determinants of environmental behaviour at plant level. Our results reveal some important differences vis-à-vis the developed countries, such as a less significant role for collective action and environmental taxes, which suggests some possible policy changes to achieve better environmental outcomes.transition economy, pollution abatement and control expenditure, Multilevel Regression Model (MRM)

Allergen immunotherapy in MASK-air users in real-life : Results of a Bayesian mixed-effects model

Background Evidence regarding the effectiveness of allergen immunotherapy (AIT) on allergic rhinitis has been provided mostly by randomised controlled trials, with little data from real-life studies. Objective To compare the reported control of allergic rhinitis symptoms in three groups of users of the MASK-air(R) app: those receiving sublingual AIT (SLIT), those receiving subcutaneous AIT (SCIT), and those receiving no AIT. Methods We assessed the MASK-air(R) data of European users with self-reported grass pollen allergy, comparing the data reported by patients receiving SLIT, SCIT and no AIT. Outcome variables included the daily impact of allergy symptoms globally and on work (measured by visual analogue scales-VASs), and a combined symptom-medication score (CSMS). We applied Bayesian mixed-effects models, with clustering by patient, country and pollen season. Results We analysed a total of 42,756 days from 1,093 grass allergy patients, including 18,479 days of users under AIT. Compared to no AIT, SCIT was associated with similar VAS levels and CSMS. Compared to no AIT, SLIT-tablet was associated with lower values of VAS global allergy symptoms (average difference = 7.5 units out of 100; 95% credible interval [95%CrI] = -12.1;-2.8), lower VAS Work (average difference = 5.0; 95%CrI = -8.5;-1.5), and a lower CSMS (average difference = 3.7; 95%CrI = -9.3;2.2). When compared to SCIT, SLIT-tablet was associated with lower VAS global allergy symptoms (average difference = 10.2; 95%CrI = -17.2;-2.8), lower VAS Work (average difference = 7.8; 95%CrI = -15.1;0.2), and a lower CSMS (average difference = 9.3; 95%CrI = -18.5;0.2). Conclusion In patients with grass pollen allergy, SLIT-tablet, when compared to no AIT and to SCIT, is associated with lower reported symptom severity. Future longitudinal studies following internationally-harmonised standards for performing and reporting real-world data in AIT are needed to better understand its 'real-world' effectiveness.Peer reviewe

Behavioural patterns in allergic rhinitis medication in Europe : A study using MASK-air(R) real-world data

Background Co-medication is common among patients with allergic rhinitis (AR), but its dimension and patterns are unknown. This is particularly relevant since AR is understood differently across European countries, as reflected by rhinitis-related search patterns in Google Trends. This study aims to assess AR co-medication and its regional patterns in Europe, using real-world data. Methods We analysed 2015-2020 MASK-air(R) European data. We compared days under no medication, monotherapy and co-medication using the visual analogue scale (VAS) levels for overall allergic symptoms ('VAS Global Symptoms') and impact of AR on work. We assessed the monthly use of different medication schemes, performing separate analyses by region (defined geographically or by Google Trends patterns). We estimated the average number of different drugs reported per patient within 1 year. Results We analysed 222,024 days (13,122 users), including 63,887 days (28.8%) under monotherapy and 38,315 (17.3%) under co-medication. The median 'VAS Global Symptoms' was 7 for no medication days, 14 for monotherapy and 21 for co-medication (p < .001). Medication use peaked during the spring, with similar patterns across different European regions (defined geographically or by Google Trends). Oral H-1-antihistamines were the most common medication in single and co-medication. Each patient reported using an annual average of 2.7 drugs, with 80% reporting two or more. Conclusions Allergic rhinitis medication patterns are similar across European regions. One third of treatment days involved co-medication. These findings suggest that patients treat themselves according to their symptoms (irrespective of how they understand AR) and that co-medication use is driven by symptom severity.Peer reviewe