Assessing critical population thresholds under periodic disturbances

Population responses to repeated environmental or anthropogenic disturbances depend on complicated interactions between the disturbance regime, population structure, and differential stage susceptibility. Using a matrix modeling approach, we develop a methodological framework to explore how the interplay of these factors impacts critical population thresholds. To illustrate the wide applicability of this approach, we present two case studies pertaining to agroecosystems and conservation science. We apply sensitivity analysis to the two case studies to examine how population and disturbance properties affect these thresholds. Contrasting outcomes between these two applications, including differences in how factors such as disturbance intensity and pre-disturbance population distributions impact population responses, highlight the importance of accounting for demographic features when performing ecological risk assessments

Impact of resource distributions on the competition of species in stream environment

Our earlier work in \cite{nguyen2022population} shows that concentrating the resources on the upstream end tends to maximize the total biomass in a metapopulation model for a stream species. In this paper, we continue our research direction by further considering a Lotka-Voletrra competition patch model for two stream species. We show that the species whose resource allocations maximize the total biomass has competitive advantage.Comment: 29 page

Analysis of lethal and sublethal impacts of environmental disasters on sperm whales using stochastic modeling

© The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Ecotoxicology 26 (2017): 820-830, doi:10.1007/s10646-017-1813-4.Mathematical models are essential for combining data from multiple sources to quantify population endpoints. This is especially true for species, such as marine mammals, for which data on vital rates are difficult to obtain. Since the effects of an environmental disaster are not fixed, we develop time-varying (nonautonomous) matrix population models that account for the eventual recovery of the environment to the pre-disaster state. We use these models to investigate how lethal and sublethal impacts (in the form of reductions in the survival and fecundity, respectively) affect the population’s recovery process. We explore two scenarios of the environmental recovery process and include the effect of demographic stochasticity. Our results provide insights into the relationship between the magnitude of the disaster, the duration of the disaster, and the probability that the population recovers to pre-disaster levels or a biologically relevant threshold level. To illustrate this modeling methodology, we provide an application to a sperm whale population. This application was motivated by the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil rig explosion in the Gulf of Mexico that has impacted a wide variety of species populations including oysters, fish, corals, and whales.This research is part of the Littoral Acoustic Demonstration Center-Gulf Ecological Monitoring and Modeling (LADC-GEMM) consortium project supported by Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative Year 5–7 Consortia Grants (RFP-IV). Hal Caswell also acknowledges support from ERC Advanced Grant 322989

Maximizing Metapopulation Growth Rate and Biomass in Stream Networks

We consider the logistic metapopulation model over a stream network and use the metapopulation growth rate and the total biomass (of the positive equilibrium) as metrics for different aspects of population persistence. Our objective is to find distributions of resources that maximize these persistence measures. We begin our study by considering stream networks consisting of three nodes and prove that the strategy to maximize the total biomass is to concentrate all the resources in the most upstream locations. In contrast, when the diffusion rates are sufficiently small, the metapopulation growth rate is maximized when all resources are concentrated in one of the most downstream locations. These two main results are generalized to stream networks with any number of patches.Comment: 24 pages, 9 figure

Analysis of lethal and sublethal impacts of environmental disasters on sperm whales using stochastic modeling

Mathematical models are essential for combining data from multiple sources to quantify population endpoints. This is especially true for species, such as marine mammals, for which data on vital rates are difficult to obtain. Since the effects of an environmental disaster are not fixed, we develop time-varying (nonautonomous) matrix population models that account for the eventual recovery of the environment to the pre-disaster state. We use these models to investigate how lethal and sublethal impacts (in the form of reductions in the survival and fecundity, respectively) affect the population’s recovery process. We explore two scenarios of the environmental recovery process and include the effect of demographic stochasticity. Our results provide insights into the relationship between the magnitude of the disaster, the duration of the disaster, and the probability that the population recovers to pre-disaster levels or a biologically relevant threshold level. To illustrate this modeling methodology, we provide an application to a sperm whale population. This application was motivated by the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil rig explosion in the Gulf of Mexico that has impacted a wide variety of species populations including oysters, fish, corals, and whales

On the Dynamic Dichotomy between Positive Equilibria and Synchronous 2-cycles in Matrix Population Models

For matrix population models with nonnegative, irreducible and primitive inherent projection matrices, the stability of the branch of positive equilibria that bifurcates from the extinction equilibrium as the dominant eigenvalue of the inherent projection matrix increases through one is determined by the direction of bifurcation. However, if the inherent projection matrix is imprimitive this bifurcation becomes more complicated. This is the result of the simultaneous departure of multiple eigenvalues from the unit complex circle. Matrix models with imprimitive projection matrices commonly appear in models of semelparous species, which are characterized by one reproductive event that is often followed by death. Due to the imprimitivity of the projection matrix, semelparous Leslie models exhibit two contrasting dynamics, either equilibria in which all age classes are present or synchronized cycles in which age classes are separated temporally. The two-stage semelparous Leslie model has index of imprimitivity two, meaning that two eigenvalues simultaneously leave the unit circle when the dominant eigenvalue increases past one. This model exhibits a dynamic dichotomy in which the two steady states have opposite stability properties. We show that this dynamic dichotomy is a general feature of synchrony models which are characterized by the simultaneous creation of a branch of positive equilibria and a branch of synchronous 2-cycles when the extinction equilibrium destabilizes (Chapter 3). A synchrony model must, necessarily, have index of imprimitivity two but is not limited to models of semelparous species. We provide a specific example of a synchrony model for an iteroparous species which is motivated by observations of a cannibalistic gull population (Chapter 2). We also extend the study of the synchrony model to a Darwinian model which couples population dynamics with the dynamics of a suite of evolving phenotypic traits (Chapter 4). For the evolutionary synchrony model, we show that the dynamic dichotomy occurs provided that fitness, as measured by the spectral radius, is maximized. In addition, we examine the dynamic dichotomy for semelparous species in a continuous-time setting (Chapter 5)

On the dynamic dichotomy between positive equilibria and synchronous 2-cycles in matrix population models

For matrix population models with nonnegative, irreducible and primitive inherent projection matrices, the stability of the branch of positive equilibria that bifurcates from the extinction equilibrium as the dominant eigenvalue of the inherent projection matrix increases through one is determined by the direction of bifurcation. However, if the inherent projection matrix is imprimitive this bifurcation becomes more complicated. This is the result of the simultaneous departure of multiple eigenvalues from the unit complex circle. Matrix models with imprimitive projection matrices commonly appear in models of semelparous species, which are characterized by one reproductive event that is often followed by death. Due to the imprimitivity of the projection matrix, semelparous Leslie models exhibit two contrasting dynamics, either equilibria in which all age classes are present or synchronized cycles in which age classes are separated temporally. The two-stage semelparous Leslie model has index of imprimitivity two, meaning that two eigenvalues simultaneously leave the unit circle when the dominant eigenvalue increases past one. This model exhibits a dynamic dichotomy in which the two steady states have opposite stability properties. We show that this dynamic dichotomy is a general feature of synchrony models which are characterized by the simultaneous creation of a branch of positive equilibria and a branch of synchronous 2-cycles when the extinction equilibrium destabilizes (Chapter 3). A synchrony model must, necessarily, have index of imprimitivity two but is not limited to models of semelparous species. We provide a specific example of a synchrony model for an iteroparous species which is motivated by observations of a cannibalistic gull population (Chapter 2). We also extend the study of the synchrony model to a Darwinian model which couples population dynamics with the dynamics of a suite of evolving phenotypic traits (Chapter 4). For the evolutionary synchrony model, we show that the dynamic dichotomy occurs provided that fitness, as measured by the spectral radius, is maximized. In addition, we examine the dynamic dichotomy for semelparous species in a continuous-time setting (Chapter 5)

A juvenile–adult population model: climate change, cannibalism, reproductive synchrony, and strong Allee effects

We study a discrete time, structured population dynamic model that is motivated by recent field observations concerning certain life history strategies of colonial- nesting gulls, specifically the glaucouswinged gull ( Larus glaucescens). The model focuses on mechanisms hypothesized to play key roles in a population's response to degraded environment resources, namely, increased cannibalism and adjustments in reproductive timing. We explore the dynamic consequences of these mechanics using a juvenile- adult structure model. Mathematically, the model is unusual in that it involves a high co- dimension bifurcation at R0 = 1 which, in turn, leads to a dynamic dichotomy between equilibrium states and synchronized oscillatory states. We give diagnostic criteria that determine which dynamic is stable. We also explore strong Allee effects caused by positive feedback mechanisms in the model and the possible consequence that a cannibalistic population can survive when a non- cannibalistic population cannot.NSF [DMS-1407564]Open Access JournalThis item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at [email protected]

The interplay between multiple control mechanisms in a host–parasitoid system: a discrete-time stage-structured modelling approach

We propose a discrete-time host–parasitoid model with stage structure in both species. For this model, we establish conditions for the existence and global stability of the extinction and parasitoid-free equilibria as well as conditions for the existence and local stability of an interior equilibrium and system persistence. We study the model numerically to examine how pesticide spraying may interact with natural enemies (parasitoids) to control the pest (host) species. We then extend the model to an impulsive difference system that incorporates both periodic pesticide spraying and augmentation of the natural enemies to suppress the pest population. For this system, we determine when the pest-eradication periodic solution is globally attracting. We also examine how varying the control measures (pesticide concentration, natural enemy augmentation and the frequency of applications) may lead to different pest outbreak or persistence outcomes when eradication does not occur