Travel Demand Forecasting Analysis Challenges Supporting Washington State Ferries\u27 Long-Range Plan Development

Ferry ridership modeling and forecasting analyses were performed to support the long-range plan (LRP) recently undertaken by the Washington State Department of Transportation Ferries Division (WSF). The LRP was developed in response to specific legislative direction. The ferry ridership forecasting analyses posed numerous challenges. In particular, the legislation directed WSF to improve its travel demand forecasting approach to ensure its plans were based on the best projections of future needs. To be able to address adequately the travel demand forecasting requirements called out in the legislation ( Ferry Bill ), a technical work group was formed that included expertise from both public agencies and consulting firms. The group met regularly over approximately 1 1/2 years to review and provide valuable feedback on the ridership forecasting procedures and results. The primary planning tool used to perform ferry ridership forecasting analysis was the WSF travel forecasting (Emme) model. The WSF travel forecasting model relies on an incremental method and produces route-level ferry ridership by boarding method and mode of access and egress. The model\u27s capabilities were supplemented by performing additional analyses, including development of (a) expansion factors to produce annual ridership, (b) growth projection factors specific to the recreational travel segment, and (c) fare elasticities by time-of-day using stated preference survey data. Ridership forecasting analyses were performed for a baseline and a range of scenarios that also included pursuit of pricing strategies

Modeling children’s school travel mode and parental escort decisions

Children’s school travel, Mode choice, Parental escort, Household interactions,